I've recently moved up to a new limit, and I'm anxious to know how I'm doing. Of course I understand that now, after only 1500 hands, there is no purpose in even stressing over statistics on poker tracker. When though, is it appropriate to begin approximating, and looking at things like "true" winrate, etc? I.e. when do my stats become relevant?
Thanks,
Matt
0
when do pt stats become relevant?
Started by soccersox8, Feb 20 2006 05:12 PM
5 replies to this topic
#2 Guest_Zach6668_*
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Posted 20 February 2006 - 06:17 PM
Minimum 10K hands to get a vague idea.
- Zach
- Zach
#3
soccersox8
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Posted 20 February 2006 - 06:41 PM
QUOTE (Zach6668)
Minimum 10K hands to get a vague idea.
- Zach
- Zach
when do you start to get a more concrete idea, 25k, 100k, never? After how many hands/how many BB won, is it safe to consider testing higher limits? I'm not considering moving up anything for a long time, but I'd like to have some numbers in mind to have something to shoot for.
#4 Guest_Zach6668_*
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Posted 20 February 2006 - 07:02 PM
Since we are simply dealing with probabilities, we just follow the law of large numbers. Over larger samples, the probabilities tend to even out, so the bigger the better. If we are concerned with long run performance, then 10K is the absolute minimum, 50K is better, 100K is pretty concrete, but there is no real answer to this. It is entirely possible, yet highly unlikely, that you get unlucky for 200K hands, and still not have had the long run take effect.
- Zach
- Zach
#5
rog
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Posted 21 February 2006 - 08:04 AM
The more hands, the more the numbers converge on their true values. Huge deviances can be noted in smaller samples. For example, if your VPIP were 50 or so, even with only 1500 hands, I'd be looking into it. If it's 30 (or 10), I wouldn't worry about it until you get more hands in.
#6
Sluggo
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Posted 23 February 2006 - 01:08 AM
10k hands is completely arbitrary. You you don't need to hit a magic number for all of your stats to suddenly have meaning.
Also, VPIP, for intance, will converge much faster than % fold to blind steal, solely because you encounter a hand preflop more often than a blind steal.
Also, VPIP, for intance, will converge much faster than % fold to blind steal, solely because you encounter a hand preflop more often than a blind steal.
(sw)
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