Actuary 3 Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 UTG+1: 10/6/2 328 handsMp3: 35/0/1.08 50 handsParty Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Actuary is BB with K:club:, K:diamond:. 1 fold, MP3 calls, Actuary calls.Flop: (12.50 SB) Q:heart:, 6:spade:, 4:spade: (3 players)Actuary checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, Actuary calls.Turn: (7.75 BB) 5:club: (3 players)Actuary checks, UTG+1 bets, Actuary foldsBased on UTG+1 stats, should I lead flop to try to get it HU, assuming he'll raisethis flop really sucked for me because with his stats AKs (maybe) JJ? was all I was beating. I was going to c/c down..but the turn fold seemed clear to me.Rarely do I fold KK before sd, but normally, I'm cappnig a non Ace flop too.Before seeing sd, I felt good about this. Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Zach6668 Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 Yeah, seems ok.You're probably getting 3-bet on the turn by UTG, so you would be paying a lot to show down here.With MP waking up, you are RARELY good here.But seriously... why the crap did you c/c the flop? I just noticed this after focusing on the turn action. Seriously?Bet/Raise/Cap - AINEC.If you manage to get to the turn, and the flop was capped by UTG, I'm probably going into c/c mode. I think you missed value on the flop, significantly.I wouldn't really let his stats get in the way here. Just because he is tight, he still raises 6% of his hands, and that gives NO indication of his capping range. He could be capable of capping 60% of the hands he plays. I'm tired, so if this makes no sense, I apologize. But, he could be doing this because of his aggressive nature, especially pre flop. Do you have any non-statistical reads on this guy?Furthermore, he has a 2.0 post-flop AF, so he is fairly aggressive.You were right, you should have led/3-bet/called cap in order to face MP3 with two-cold.Anyways... that's my random/probably misleading advice.Why am I not sleeping?- Zach Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted February 17, 2006 Share Posted February 17, 2006 A couple of points:1) UTG's capping range is probably very narrow (AA-QQ and AK)2) You really underrepresented your hand on the flopI think you have a fold on teh turn, but I hate doing it because of 2).I think the best play might have been to just bet/call the flop and fold the turn UI. With UTG's stats, he is not capping with AK nearly as often as AA-QQ. Also, he is not raising the flop with AK after you show so much strength nearly as often as he's raising with AA-QQ. So if he raises, you can safely fold the turn UI. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted February 17, 2006 Author Share Posted February 17, 2006 I could never bring myself to fold KK on this board for 1 bet on the turn. Link to post Share on other sites
princeof56k 0 Posted February 18, 2006 Share Posted February 18, 2006 I think you have to lead the flop there. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted February 18, 2006 Author Share Posted February 18, 2006 Why should I bet out?Just so I know to fold the turn?I think he raises AK way to much here for me to fold.Is it just to charge MP more Link to post Share on other sites
looshle 6 Posted February 18, 2006 Share Posted February 18, 2006 I think its a good fold, UTG+1 caps it preflop and mp waits to bump it up on the turn. Probably a set of 6s or 5s and calling 2 here doesnt mean youll get a showdown for 3 all the time.Looks like you're beat to me, I like the fold. Link to post Share on other sites
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