9 replies to this topic

[hotbacon]

I didn't have reads on villain at this point, so assume unknown.

I'm SB with 99
2/4 Stars 6max
CO opens, I 3-bet, he calls

Flop: AA8r
I bet, he calls

Turn: (4.5 BB) 8
I????

[allinbluff35]

i check raise here because i'm an awesome donk, i have no reasoning for it, i just think it would be neat to do.

[econ_tim]

bet/fold is looking good

[hotbacon]

bet/fold is looking good

That's what I did. It seemed so blah to me though.
Are you doing this because you think KJ or whatever might hvae peeled the flop?
How likely do you think it is that villain will bluff if checked to?

[econ_tim]

How likely do you think it is that villain will bluff if checked to?

not very likely, but any two broadway cards have six outs.

[pokerplayer24]

Bet/fold it. Against a real aggro player who might try to bluff this i'd consider check/calling down. But thats only with someone who has an AF >3.

Also thought I saw you at 2/4 6 max yesterday even though I never sat at your table.

[screech]

i check raise here because i'm an awesome donk, i have no reasoning for it, i just think it would be neat to do.

To get him to lay down TT. I like it. TT is not folding if you bet. If he calls your raise you're done.

[DrZebra]

so you're saying c/r/f?? haha, way too specific.
definitely a b/f.

[allinbluff35]

i check raise here because i'm an awesome donk, i have no reasoning for it, i just think it would be neat to do.

To get him to lay down TT. I like it. TT is not folding if you bet. If he calls your raise you're done.

desperation Matusow bluff the river dude, only donkeys can pull it off, I do it all the time. I'm just that awesome to do it on multiple streets in big pots. sw

[screech]

so you're saying c/r/f??  haha, way too specific.
definitely a b/f.

I c/r an ace here like 75% of the time.

I b/f an underpair like 100% of the time.

I want him to htink I have an ace.

I'm a predictable ****, and so are most TAG's. If villian is smart, he know's raising with the turn with any 2 here is profitable.

Also, his hand range is pretty narrow. I think it's KK-99 and Ax. A c/f is much better than a b/f here since we have zero fold equity with a bet.

But yeah, you're right, check/rais ng in this hand is a bit much vs an unknown. It is creative, but it's pretty bad considering villian has an ace about 70% of the time here. Our c/r has to work about 30% of the time, so we would have to fold a higher pp 100% of the time to break even. That's not going to happen.

Of course a bet/fold is pretty bad too. We get raised a ton here. Even if villian doesn't have an ace or a high pp, if he calls the flop, it's usually with the intention to raise the turn with air, so he might as well have an ace. Luckily, this doesn't happen too often. And as I mentioned earlier, if we bet the turn, we have zero fold equity. So we are just throwing away money. Even more if we get stubborn and bet again on the river. In that case, we ahve lost just as much as a turn c/r, without the added FE. Either way, betting the turn is a bad play too.

So as weak as it sounds, this seems like a pretty easy turn check/fold.