25 replies to this topic

[Downstream]

If it makes anyone feel better, I have been playing these pocket pairs based on advice. I was just trying to figure out why. I dont think my deposit would have lasted this long if I hadn't been playing these :-) .Thanks for your help, sometimes you just have to write it down for it to make sense.P.S. Didnt mean to edit out original post, I just hit edit instead of quote...

[jayistheman]

wrong wrong wrongu will hit trips 1/25 if the flop was only one card.... reevaluate your logic... you are flushing +EV down the toilet.

[trentose]

You're about 7.5:1 to hit trips on the flop

[Absolution]

You'll hit trips ~12% on the flop. Figure out why that is first and then you'll realize why you can sometimes raise or cold-call 2 bets with these hands on the button.

[NormanHaupt]

You're not couunting the fact that if an Ace drops you'll reraised like a maniac. You can deploy some moves for more bets, too.Add in table image.

[Downstream]

I forgot to put this in. I always hear that you should fold if someone bets on the flop and you don't have trips with these hands. So if no bet, then I should include the extra free turn or river cards? How can you include that in this type of analysis?I can see this pushing the EV more into the positive.

[gregdon8]

I think that the value of small pocket pairs is really in no limit holdem where you can use implied odds. If you both are sitting at a 1-2 no limit table with 300 in chips... the implied odds are there because you figure when you hit you are winning most of the 300, as it is hard to put someone on a set. I wouldnt say to always call with small pocket pairs in limit games. I would use stack size to help me decide. If I am doing particularly well in a given night I might take those chances. like everything else in poker it is situational. Once yuo get to the point where you are actually playing your opponents cards, you can take down even those hands you miss, again though this is more the case in no-limit as there are much less players to a flop.

[Downstream]

Absolution said:

You'll hit trips ~12% on the flop. Figure out why that is first and then you'll realize why you can sometimes raise or cold-call 2 bets with these hands on the button.

Feeling stupid here, sorry. :oops: Was reading this on an online bit where they said 1:25 odds. That's one card only though. 2 out of 50, then 2 out of 49 then two out of 48 is right for the flop. Much better odds. Forgive my greeness.

[jayistheman]

np.... you have been missing out on alot of playable hands, and alot of +EV situations. go make up for it.. lol

[NormanHaupt]

Again.. 1:52 is one card at a time. It changes when you start discussing paying 1 bet for 3 cards. It WILL hit 1 in 7.5 times. We're talking about all pocket pairs, too.Finally, no one mentioned the chances of hitting quads on the flop, which, though astronomical, should be briefly mentioned that it is a boss hand no one would normally put you on if you hit.

[FromTheRail]

No, thats still not it.First, personally, I don't think you should worry about preflop odds. That is just more math to bog everything down. However, if you want to know, then yes, you are approximately 7.5-1 to turn a set on the flop. However, you are figuring your odds to hit on the turn and river incorrect.After the flop you have 47 cards left unseen so 47/2 and after the turn you have 46 cards unseen so you are at 46/2.

[jayistheman]

what are the exact quads odds? i flopped em 2 times one night in a 12 hour session... turned them once too that night.

[NormanHaupt]

I hit quads twice in like 5 minutes. Quad J's and Quad 4's- both off of pocket pair. I think its pretty astronomical to flop them though. Both were flopped trips turned good.

[....Ian....]

jayistheman said:

what are the exact quads odds?

to flop it, i calculate, 0.3299%

[jayistheman]

ty sir

[MrNiceGuy]

....Ian.... said:

jayistheman said:

what are the exact quads odds?

to flop it, i calculate, 0.3299%

I get a bit worse ... 0.2449% to hit quads on the flop.

[penne]

most pros only play them if the odds dictate to do so. then the old saying applies "no set, no bet". if you think they're still good based on read thats just a judgment call.

[Bonobio]

Only reason I played this was it was late, I was losing, the wife was bringing me a heaping plate of stir-fry, and I was against a constant pre-flop raiser. Plus I checked with what SSHE said about low pocket pairs and I decided that it fit my table.PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) converterPreflop: Hero is SB with [3d], [3s]. 2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.Flop: (9 SB) [3h], [8c], [Kd] (4 players)Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds.Turn: (5.50 BB) [7s] (2 players)Hero bets, CO calls.River: (11.50 BB) [Kh] (2 players)Hero bets, Hero calls.Final Pot: 19.50 BB

[NormanHaupt]

http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php

[Hextall27]

In limit, I only play small pocket pairs (5's or lower) in the blinds if the pot is big enough to be laying me odds, i.e. I'm in the small blind with 3 limpers and I complete the small blind, or if I'm in LP or one of the blinds and it's one of those huge family pots where somebody raises UTG and like 5 people call before it gets to me. If I hit a set on the flop, I make a run at it; if I miss, I fold. I won't draw to a two outer past the flop, obviously.Small pocket pairs are kind of worthless in Limit, especially low limits, when half the table is seeing every flop. As for no limit, well, that's not my game.