21 replies to this topic

[thaiger1]

This weekend, we were down to 6 players (from a 240 player field) in a local $250 buy-in $50,000 NL Tourney here in Northern Michigan... places 6-10 paid $610; 5th:$3K; 4th:$6K; 3rd:$9K; 2nd:$15K; and 1st:$24,000I've won the weekly $50 NL Tourney twice in the past month at this same casino. (Daniel will appreciate this:) Most of the field is from Grand Rapids (his girlfriends hometown) with not a lot of big tournament experience, and I'm the only local left. I was chip leader at several earlier tables with some of those left,including final table chip leader when it started over an hour ago, and everyone believes I am playing tight aggressive.At this point, blinds are 10000/15000 and will go up to 10000/20000 before they get to me. I'm down to 85000 chips, the button to my left has 90000. I believe I have a really good read on everyone at the table this hand, and after the first two fold, the guy on my right (50000 stack) calls the BB. I'm certain he'll fold to a big raise, and my read on the guy to my left is he might have a hand to call the BB with but not much more. The blinds both have less than 40000 chips, are in survival mode, and I believe have no playable hands.I look down to see pocket 77. What do you do?After a few replies, I'll tell you how the hand played out.PS- Daniel ... I'm sure you don't recall, but we talked briefly on the PartyPoker Million III cruise in the internet cafe ... you were very courteous and sincere ... best of luck to you and congrats on Player of the Year

[Devilkin]

There is a HUGE difference between finishing 6th and finishing 5th in this tourney, so its all about survival until you reach at least 5th.All in at this point is not warranted - middle pocket pair, you still have a few BB bets left in you. Try to steal a few blinds and keep yourself in the game until your killer hand arrives, or you are down much more in chips.Id raise at this point, try to go head to head with someone, unless you put them on a higher pair, then bail. You have a good read, so I'll let you make that call.Dev

[KDawgCometh]

I wish there was a decent sized raise choice here, as I don't like pushing in, but that's better than raising it to 30k. That 25k in blinds would look nice in your stack and if people are being tenative about playing a big pot this might just be the place to push in. You have the 25k in blinds and the 15k out there from the limp you could almost double up just by picking up whats out there

[Devilkin]

Quote

I wish there was a decent sized raise choice here, as I don't like pushing in, but that's better than raising it to 30k. That 25k in blinds would look nice in your stack and if people are being tenative about playing a big pot this might just be the place to push in. You have the 25k in blinds and the 15k out there from the limp you could almost double up just by picking up whats out there

I see what you are saying, but 77 is a middle pair, far from one that can regulary win a hand without some improvement. Sure, the chips would look great in his pile, but is 77 the hand to do this on? Unless you flop a trey, chances are you are going out soon. Odds just arent there for the all or nothing risk. Don't forget you have the SB, BB and one caller already to deal with. One on one, I might push in pocket 7s, but with two or more callers, no way. Im interested to see how it played out . .. Dev

[EJ333]

Push or fold.I push here.I recognize that there is a massive difference between 6th and 5th. But if you want to have a chance to win, I think you make a stand with this hand and pray no one has a higher pp.You just don't have enough chips to wait for something better.You could probably fold into 4th or 5th which isn't a bad play either.

[Devilkin]

Quote

You just don't have enough chips to wait for something better

Six players left - blinds are big, but he still has a few covered, so we are talking at least 12 more hands before there is a critical choice to make. And in this time, someone may have bowed out, putting you into serious money territory. There are better hands to go all in on than pocket 7's at this point.Dev

[Emptyeye]

Yeah, I wish there were a "make a standard raise" option.But of the choices there, I'd have to say raise the minimum. I would think everyone at the table, not just the blinds, would be playing not to lose at this point (I could be wrong), so your minimum raise very likely accomplishes the same thing as an all-in push here. Note that this is really a blind-steal attempt more than anything though. Obviously (And this would apply even not in this situation), fold to a re-raise, and be ready to bail if you get called and miss your set (Which will suck, yes, but at least you still have some chips left).

[Don Giovanni]

you should push here. based on what you said about your reads and wha you thought they have they will probly fold. at most one guy will call you in which case you have a good chance of winning the hand. if your playing just to get 5th place instead of 6th your not gonna be very successful in tournaments.what you have to realize is that the other players that he has covered right now are thinking the same thing, theres a huge difference between 5th and 6th. making it more likely that they will fold trying to move up in the money and survive. this is a perfect spot to push all in.

[KDawgCometh]

Devilkin said:

Quote

I wish there was a decent sized raise choice here, as I don't like pushing in, but that's better than raising it to 30k. That 25k in blinds would look nice in your stack and if people are being tenative about playing a big pot this might just be the place to push in. You have the 25k in blinds and the 15k out there from the limp you could almost double up just by picking up whats out there

I see what you are saying, but 77 is a middle pair, far from one that can regulary win a hand without some improvement. Sure, the chips would look great in his pile, but is 77 the hand to do this on? Unless you flop a trey, chances are you are going out soon. Odds just arent there for the all or nothing risk. Don't forget you have the SB, BB and one caller already to deal with. One on one, I might push in pocket 7s, but with two or more callers, no way. Im interested to see how it played out . .. Dev

I am also basing this on his read of the other players where he says they look a little uncomfortable of playing a big hand right here, so that would mean that you could push with many hands here. HIs read is that they will fold to a big raise, so if that's your read I say go with it

[Devilkin]

Quote

you should push here. based on what you said about your reads and wha you thought they have they will probly fold. at most one guy will call you in which case you have a good chance of winning the hand. if your playing just to get 5th place instead of 6th your not gonna be very successful in tournaments.

I disagree - play for 5th, then when you've got at least that finish anchored, then you gamble. Till then, why risk it - you aren't going out anytime soon, and someone else might. Blind steal, and if you are caught doing it you have a reasonable hand to defend it. Dev

[gobears]

thaiger1 said:

This weekend, we were down to 6 players (from a 240 player field) in a local $250 buy-in $50,000 NL Tourney here in Northern Michigan... places 6-10 paid $610; 5th:$3K; 4th:$6K; 3rd:$9K; 2nd:$15K; and 1st:$24,000I've won the weekly $50 NL Tourney twice in the past month at this same casino. (Daniel will appreciate this:) Most of the field is from Grand Rapids (his girlfriends hometown) with not a lot of big tournament experience, and I'm the only local left. I was chip leader at several earlier tables with some of those left,including final table chip leader when it started over an hour ago, and everyone believes I am playing tight aggressive.At this point, blinds are 10000/15000 and will go up to 10000/20000 before they get to me. I'm down to 85000 chips, the button to my left has 90000. I believe I have a really good read on everyone at the table this hand, and after the first two fold, the guy on my right (50000 stack) calls the BB. I'm certain he'll fold to a big raise, and my read on the guy to my left is he might have a hand to call the BB with but not much more. The blinds both have less than 40000 chips, are in survival mode, and I believe have no playable hands.I look down to see pocket 77. What do you do?After a few replies, I'll tell you how the hand played out.PS- Daniel ... I'm sure you don't recall, but we talked briefly on the PartyPoker Million III cruise in the internet cafe ... you were very courteous and sincere ... best of luck to you and congrats on Player of the Year

This is a tough decision; it's either all-in or fold for me. I'm leaning to fold only because the button is still left to act and he can cover my push.Also, the big difference between 5th and 6th factors in my decision. Of course, every other player is also thinking about that so that's one good reason for pushing all-in. I think that the guy on the right will probably fold with such a weak call unless he's trying to trap .It comes down to your read and how good you think that it is since this is a live game. I typically only play on-line, so this would be a fold for me since I would have no real read on the hands that these guys have.

[Don Giovanni]

based on what he said theres no way more than one guy is calling here and the chance that the one guy has pocket 7s beat is small. so why not push. all 3 of the other people in this hand are in survival mode he said. thats when you have to become fearless and take advatage of their passive play. theres 2 big blinds and a small blind in there for the taking. if you fold here you might not see a hand better than 7s for a while. then what? then you get eaten away by the blinds or forced to steal the blinds with an even less powerful hand. yea he might get a few thousand more by playing for 5th, but he might get 24000 more if he plays for 1st. easy call push all in.

[KDawgCometh]

Don Giovanni said:

based on what he said theres no way more than one guy is calling here and the chance that the one guy has pocket 7s beat is small. so why not push. all 3 of the other people in this hand are in survival mode he said. thats when you have to become fearless and take advatage of their passive play. theres 2 big blinds and a small blind in there for the taking. if you fold here you might not see a hand better than 7s for a while. then what? then you get eaten away by the blinds or forced to steal the blinds with an even less powerful hand. yea he might get a few thousand more by playing for 5th, but he might get 24000 more if he plays for 1st. easy call puch all in.

I don't think that its an easy call, but I'm also going with his reads here. If he didn't feel the way he does with the reads then mucking is the better option. The difference between $600 and 3k is significant here and its something to be considered in the whole thought process

[thaiger1]

you'll allow others a chance to make theirs ... first time I've posted here and I trust that there's something about the situation I described that fires your passion, and that you're not in the habit of commenting back at every post you don't agree with simply restate your contrarian view.if you're a sysop here, perhaps you can edit my poll to add a 5th choice ... that of "Raise to 40-50K" ... I tried but don't have that capability.no disrespect intended ... i just hope i've found a user friendly poker forum where the free exchange of views can be shared without someone trying to reign supreme such as is rampant in on-line poker chat windows.we all get your point.thanks and no hard feelings.t1

[Devilkin]

Quote

you'll allow others a chance to make theirs ... first time I've posted here and I trust that there's something about the situation I described that fires your passion, and that you're not in the habit of commenting back at every post you don't agree with simply restate your contrarian view.if you're a sysop here, perhaps you can edit my poll to add a 5th choice ... that of "Raise to 40-50K" ... I tried but don't have that capability.no disrespect intended ... i just hope i've found a user friendly poker forum where the free exchange of views can be shared without someone trying to reign supreme such as is rampant in on-line poker chat windows.we all get your point.thanks and no hard feelings.

Not sure if that's directed at me or not.Open free debate is an excellent way to exchange ideas. I defend my viewpoint, you defend yours, and in the end you may convert me, I may convert you or we agree to disagree. Any way, no hard feelings.I like to comment back when I get involved in a thread, to force people to explain their viewpoints instead of just giving an opinion. Its nice to tell what you'd do, but Im much more interested in why you are doing it.I'll never say Im right - just give my opinion and enjoy the open debate.Dev

[gregdon8]

I think that this is a very tough call here and is a great question. If I understand there are players to your left who are seriously shortstacked at around 40000. If any of those players call with overs and they probably will, then you are about 53-47 to win. If they fold then you almost double up with the pot size. I would look at it through an EXPECTED VALUE estimationExcuse the fuzzy estimates and just take it for context53 times you win @145,ooo... 40,000+40,000+45,000 (antes and blinds)47 times you lose @40,000 (Half of your stack, unless button who covers you calls, but you read he wouldn't)winning 7,685,000 to losing 1,888,000 = EV 4/1Plus you figure if you win the pot you significantly increase your chances of finishing in the top three with the serious money. And even if you lose you are not knocked out of the tourney, so there is a good chance that one of the other small stacks will have to play a marginal hand and get knocked out even before you.Also, was just wondering how you were able to get a read of players yet to act. I will assume everyone is looking at their cards as they get them allowing you to gage them, as you were reading people to your left in the explanation.

[KDawgCometh]

thaiger1 said:

you'll allow others a chance to make theirs ... first time I've posted here and I trust that there's something about the situation I described that fires your passion, and that you're not in the habit of commenting back at every post you don't agree with simply restate your contrarian view.if you're a sysop here, perhaps you can edit my poll to add a 5th choice ... that of "Raise to 40-50K" ... I tried but don't have that capability.no disrespect intended ... i just hope i've found a user friendly poker forum where the free exchange of views can be shared without someone trying to reign supreme such as is rampant in on-line poker chat windows.we all get your point.thanks and no hard feelings.t1

I don't think this got nasty in the slightest. I find this kinda odd and no one has said they're absolutly right here. I'm a little surprised by this post. In fact if you find some of the arguments in this thread nasty, well this doesn't compare to some of the posts that've happened. Not saying that people hate each other here at all, just that there has been some real flame posts that make this look pedestrian, which this thread discussion is

[Devilkin]

Quote

I don't think this got nasty in the slightest. I find this kinda odd and no one has said they're absolutly right here. I'm a little surprised by this post. In fact if you find some of the arguments in this thread nasty, well this doesn't compare to some of the posts that've happened. Not saying that people hate each other here at all, just that there has been some real flame posts that make this look pedestrian, which this thread discussion is

Scary isn't it? Im actually one of the nicer people here :)Dev

[gregdon8]

Hey devilkin and kdawg, how do you guys feel about how I looked at this situation? Just curious

[KDawgCometh]

Devilkin said:

Quote

I don't think this got nasty in the slightest. I find this kinda odd and no one has said they're absolutly right here. I'm a little surprised by this post. In fact if you find some of the arguments in this thread nasty, well this doesn't compare to some of the posts that've happened. Not saying that people hate each other here at all, just that there has been some real flame posts that make this look pedestrian, which this thread discussion is

Scary isn't it? Im actually one of the nicer people here :)Dev

seriously. Whoever started this thread shouldn't be so sensitive. A variety of opinions is gonna help your game out, this is for srtaegy so the point of posting here isn't to coddle your ego, if someone thinks you could've played it differently then they'll say so