manipulating pot odds
3 replies to this topic
Posted 08 December 2004 - 10:26 PM
I've had a few questions on my mind as of late and can't seem to figure them out on my own. :? Help me out with this someone please. I havn't grasp the concept of pot odds completely.You are in a $5/10 limit hold'em ring game. Delt down QcQh in the small blind. Two players in late position limp in (which you know both to be aggressive), and the big blind checks. Flop comes down Jc9d5h Will a check-raise work here to manipulate pot odds? Or should you just raise pre-flop and bet out on the flop. I'm going to attempt to calculate it out mathimatically, so be prepared to make corrections. :roll: O.K. In order for the check-raise to work you would have to simply call pre-flop to keep the pot small. So, you limp in. Four players see the flop, 5$ a peice. So there is only $20 in the pot. You check and the limper in last position bets and you raise. Your raise makes the pot worth $35. The other two players have to call $10 to win $35...3.5-1. Assuming one player has QTo, the non-betting limper, he will have 8 good outs in the deck. So, he is getting 3.5-1 on a 2-1 draw. If he calls and so does the original better that makes the pot worth $50. Ultimately he has to call $20 to win $60 (assuming you bet the turn), so 3-1 on a 2-1. It doesn't work, right? So when do you check-raise or limp to manipulate pot odds? Give me an example, please. I've read that this works, but everytime I try to come up with a situation in my head, the math doesn't work out.I'm a visual learner, in a way. I have to apply a concept in order for it to make since. Show me a ligit example. I've read in many places that pot odds are not only used for calling a bet. Someone give me an example where you use pot odds in another way.
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Posted 09 December 2004 - 04:55 AM
Ok, for one the QT is not a 2-1 draw.... if you use the percentage formula of how often he will turn the hand it will be a 2-1 draw, otherwise it's actually 4.875-to-1. So he should be getting those pot odds at least to call in this situation.Now you also have to factor in implied odds, that is the implied betting rounds to follow the current round. The goal of a draw hand is to earn at least the number of bets when you win with this hand as the odds against you on the flop; or more. So if he considers that he's putting in $10 to win $35 now, he knows that the original bettor will need to call $5 [or potentially raise]. If he just calls there is now $50 in the pot. the next round betting is $10, so he's getting 5-to-1 on his money, which is now better pot odds. However his chances of hitting the hand have dropped slightly to 4.75-to-1 so he could in theory call here as well.More often than not with implied pot odds he would've been right to call the raise there. In addition it's most likely that he would've bet himself after you checked to him since he would want to bet for value in this situation and increase his pot odds on the turn [if he misses his draw]. Then he would only be calling $5 more and have great pot odds.I disagree with the check raise here, at best it makes someone think you are drawing or have top pair w/ top kicker, perhaps two pair or trips. So at this point nobody is threatened by your check raise. In addition if a scare card comes, like a 8 or a T, or the board pairs, now you can't bet without fear of being raised yourself.My inclination is to bet the hand from the beginning. Not only does it make the pot odds lower for the guy on the turn, but if a scare card comes you might be able to continue to bet and win the pot right there.
Posted 09 December 2004 - 10:42 AM
Tek, how do you get 4.8-1? I'm hopeless. Also, I understand that it wouldn't work in this situation, i'm looking for someone to show me an example of when manipulating pot odds should work. Of coarse, if you have a good drawing hand, you check if the original bettor is to your left and raise all the callers to make the pot bigger.But, when is there a time to try and keep the pot small and manipulate the pot odds in order for someone to make a mistake according to the fundamental theorum of poker?
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Posted 09 December 2004 - 11:42 AM
Effective odds- Let's say you are playing hold'em, and after the flop you have a four-flush that you are sure will win if you hit it. There are two cards to come, which improves your odds of making the flush to approximately 1-3/4-to-1. x=# of outsy=unseen cardsy/x-1=zwith one card o come47/9-1=4.22-yo-1With two cards to come47/18-1=1.6-to-1So, on the flop, the guy with the OES draw is a 1.9-to-1 or roughly 2-to-1 dog. His effective odds are 3-to-1...he has to call $10 on the flop and $10 on the turn for a total loss of $20 if he misses. But wins $60 if he hits...making his effective odds 3-to-1 on a 2-to-1 draw, and a call the correct play. I understand that raising pre-flop is the superior play here. I want to know when it is NOT the superior play. Yall gotta treat me like a little kid. Step by step. Show me an example of when and how to manipulate pot odds. As you can tell, each example I come up with doesn't work out.
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