Shimmering Wang said:
i disagree with the whole idea of using permutations, but even if you do, we have KK, so we are ahead of any AK except Ad, Kd. and i don't think we have enough hands to put him on such a narrow range. i've had 40-hand and longer stretches where i went 10/0, and my usual stats are 18/9, and would 3-bet from the button there with AQ, AJ, 10-10. as for using permutations, that method suggests that JJ/QQ are almost as likely as AK, and that Ad, Kd is just as likely as As, Kc. I think AK/AQ, with possibly one diamond is by far the most likely, while JJ, QQ and Ad, Ax are extremely unlikely. daniel
You DISAGREE with the idea of "permutations?" That's like disagreeing with fractions, or the planet venus.... Explain or I shall cut you. Would you kindly explain how AdKc is BEHIND our hand on the flop? I'm curious to see if you disagree with "basic mathematics, too." Before you write out your answer, make sure you use the correct definition of "ahead."I agree that the range we put him on is narrow, but I added TT to be optimistic. Adding AQs doesn't really change all THAT much, either, considering there's only 3 perms. I don't think many people who go 40 hands w/o raising 3-bet on the button with AJ0 all that much. It's very, very, very unlikely. I'd bust out a chi squared test or something to test for significance, but it's boring.And, finally, please explain why AdKx or AxKd is "by far the most likkely" hand and JJ/QQ/AdAx are "extremely unlikely." Wang
first off, i disagree with fractions. they are shifty and i just don't trust them. either you're a number or you aren't, no halfway sh
it.ok i should've clarified that i dont disagree with permutations, but using permutations in the way that you did to estimate his hand range. i do not disagree with the concept of permutations in general.using them as you did implies that each permutation is equally likely. i don't think i need to elaborate on why this is a faulty assumption.Ad, Kx vs Kx, Kx on 4d, Jd, Qd flop:i really thought that one overcard + gutshot + flush draw was behind the overpair. i ran it through the odds calculator. i was wrong.equity-wise, AKo with a diamond is ahead on this flop. my mistake.technically, KK would be "ahead" on this flop since it currently has the better hand. in this case, another player easily might not realize that their AKo (with a diamond) is ahead on this flop, and hence the question of whether we are currently leading does have some validity. but really, i'm just trying to defend myself, and since i think most of us agree equity is more important, i'll acknowledge that for intents and purposes
(whew) we are behind to that hand on this flop.AJo:ok, AJo is not his most likely holding. but i don't think you can estimate with any sort of accuracy how likely it is he would or wouldn't raise from the button
with AJo from those stats. then again, i don't really understand a Chi-Squared test (don't tell my econometrics prof), so i could be wrong.screech has clarified he is really looking for help on flop play, so I cannot suggest that AK is any more or less likely than JJ or QQ, since i feel most people are approximately as likely to 3-bet those from the button. i was thinking that his river play was poor, given that the turn check indicated (to me) how unlikely AK (with a diamond), JJ or QQ was.advice on the flop play seems easier, since it is more or less a standard hand. we should be bet/raising that flop. i know people hate playing hands standardly, but there's a reason standard is standard. i don't think we have enough of a read to suggest deviating. the turn play will depend on flop play, but as i said, i probably bet/call a non-diamond and bet/fold a diamond.well, i think i deserved most of those flames - i hope i explained myself without backtracking too much. actually what i was most afraid of was that I misspelled "likely" when actually I did not. whew.daniel
Long signatures are really annoying.