Chip_and_a_Chair 0 Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 I met my sticky end in the Negreanu Open with 14 players left. I had the sixth largest stack at around 6500-7000, and found AQs in the blinds. Qronic, who had been raising a large number of hands, made it 2000 from late position. He had made the exact same bet with a small pair earlier at the table, so I put him on another small pair. He had me covered, but I decided to come over the top with my AQs, expecting him to fold if he had any pair under 9s or 10s, since I had been playing fairly tight and he would have been crippled if he lost.Well, he called quickly with 77 and I didn't improve. My read was dead-on, but is it unreasonable to assume that a player will fold a vulnerable pair to a large re-raise from a tight player? My re-raise was roughly double the pot.My question is, with only 9 spots getting paid, whether it is better to:a) Forfeit my blind to what I've pegged as a small/medium pocket pair.B) Call for almost 1/3 my stack, leaving me the option (albeit undesirable) of folding on the flop. In this case, a King hit the flop and I had four to the flush. Still not convinced that Qronic would have folded to an all-in after the flop, even with the King as a scare card.c) Do exactly as I did. Reconcile my expectations for a fold with the fact that I'm a probable coinflip if he calls, and then let luck decide.Also, does the fact that I had observed Qronic to be a gambler make coming over the top on a wired pair a worse play, or is a coin flip situation an acceptable risk late in a tournament against an aggressive player?Any tips are appreciated. Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 Better to make a play on the flop if you think he has a small pair. He's much less likely to call a big flop bet with any big overcards on the flop. I'd see a flop here.He pretty much has to call with that overlay because you will often have big unpaired cards and occasiaonlly a smaller pair and less often a big overpair. Link to post Share on other sites
Absolute 0 Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 It's like Paul Phillips told Mike Matusow at a final table this past world series.Paul had 7-7, Mike had A-J suited.Mike didn't improve.Mike: I know you had middle pair, I knew it!Paul: If you knew I had a middle pair, you might have considered folding. Link to post Share on other sites
Deepkoncntrtion 0 Posted February 17, 2005 Share Posted February 17, 2005 Sorry bout breaking U....you made a brilliant read and the call was correct as it was a coinflip, you were suited as well. You knew I would call if I had a small pocket pair....in the end of a tourny its all or nothing, you need to double up when u can.BTW, I play an unorthodox aggressive style.....not a gambler in the very least.... Link to post Share on other sites
Chip_and_a_Chair 0 Posted February 17, 2005 Author Share Posted February 17, 2005 Sorry bout breaking U....you made a brilliant read and the call was correct as it was a coinflip, you were suited as well. You knew I would call if I had a small pocket pair....in the end of a tourny its all or nothing, you need to double up when u can.BTW, I play an unorthodox aggressive style.....not a gambler in the very least....By "gambler," I don't mean in the negative sense -- i.e. calling blindly -- I mean willing to risk coinflips in order to maintain your aggressive image... a la Brunson. With a made hand, you obviously made the right play, particularly because you had me covered and a chance to take a commanding chip lead.I guess my question is whether it's dumb of ME to put my healthy stack at risk without a made hand when I figured it's at best 50/50 that you'll fold. These coinflips tend to come up a lot late in tournaments, and I'm not sure how my push rates in EV and whatnot. I do know that if I had made the final table that there are at least five players who could flat out outplay me, so I think that was in the back of my mind.Curious to know if you fold to an all-in after the K hits the flop, or if you put me on a hand with no K. The fact that I played so tight probably telegraphed to players that if low cards hit the flop, they could probably steal a pot from me if they took away my odds to draw. Just wondering what you put me on when I pushed.Thanks! Link to post Share on other sites
Deepkoncntrtion 0 Posted February 17, 2005 Share Posted February 17, 2005 I guess my question is whether it's dumb of ME to put my healthy stack at risk without a made hand when I figured it's at best 50/50 that you'll fold. Curious to know if you fold to an all-in after the K hits the flop, or if you put me on a hand with no K.[/quoteWhen I encounter an aggressive player in a tourny and they have me covered, I will always flop play rather than go all in before the flop with a hand like AK or AQ etc...If I have a made hand then its a different story. You can always test the strength of the raisers hand by re-raising a little, rather than going all in....this way when a high card hits your bluff will be believable....if no high card hits you can still bluff a flush or fold.An aggressive player will raise everytime they have a somewhat decent hand (2 steal the blinds), so if someone hits the flop (or bluffs) and they go all in....we r more likely to fold....the aggressive player knows that all he has to do is steal 2 more rounds of blinds and he's even again. If u went all in after the flop when the king hit I would have folded. U put me on a small pocket pair....the gamble for u is that u don't know if I hit my set....this will occur ~12% of the time (7.5 to 1), so I would still move all in. Another reason I would flop play if I was in your position is because you did have a healthy stack. If you were short stacked the call would of been more justifiable. This can be argued either way....my personal preference is to flop play when I am covered. On the other hand if u have someone covered u are more correct in taking the coin flip. Link to post Share on other sites
Bonobio 0 Posted February 17, 2005 Share Posted February 17, 2005 All in all qronic, you had some kind of voodoo power in your favor that night. Link to post Share on other sites
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