6 replies to this topic

[Chip_and_a_Chair]

I met my sticky end in the Negreanu Open with 14 players left. I had the sixth largest stack at around 6500-7000, and found AQs in the blinds. Qronic, who had been raising a large number of hands, made it 2000 from late position. He had made the exact same bet with a small pair earlier at the table, so I put him on another small pair. He had me covered, but I decided to come over the top with my AQs, expecting him to fold if he had any pair under 9s or 10s, since I had been playing fairly tight and he would have been crippled if he lost.Well, he called quickly with 77 and I didn't improve. My read was dead-on, but is it unreasonable to assume that a player will fold a vulnerable pair to a large re-raise from a tight player? My re-raise was roughly double the pot.My question is, with only 9 spots getting paid, whether it is better to:a) Forfeit my blind to what I've pegged as a small/medium pocket pair.B) Call for almost 1/3 my stack, leaving me the option (albeit undesirable) of folding on the flop. In this case, a King hit the flop and I had four to the flush. Still not convinced that Qronic would have folded to an all-in after the flop, even with the King as a scare card.c) Do exactly as I did. Reconcile my expectations for a fold with the fact that I'm a probable coinflip if he calls, and then let luck decide.Also, does the fact that I had observed Qronic to be a gambler make coming over the top on a wired pair a worse play, or is a coin flip situation an acceptable risk late in a tournament against an aggressive player?Any tips are appreciated.

[Smasharoo]

Better to make a play on the flop if you think he has a small pair. He's much less likely to call a big flop bet with any big overcards on the flop. I'd see a flop here.He pretty much has to call with that overlay because you will often have big unpaired cards and occasiaonlly a smaller pair and less often a big overpair.

[Absolute]

It's like Paul Phillips told Mike Matusow at a final table this past world series.Paul had 7-7, Mike had A-J suited.Mike didn't improve.Mike: I know you had middle pair, I knew it!Paul: If you knew I had a middle pair, you might have considered folding.

[Deepkoncntrtion]

Sorry bout breaking U....you made a brilliant read and the call was correct as it was a coinflip, you were suited as well. You knew I would call if I had a small pocket pair....in the end of a tourny its all or nothing, you need to double up when u can.BTW, I play an unorthodox aggressive style.....not a gambler in the very least....

[Chip_and_a_Chair]

Deepkoncntrtion said:

Sorry bout breaking U....you made a brilliant read and the call was correct as it was a coinflip, you were suited as well. You knew I would call if I had a small pocket pair....in the end of a tourny its all or nothing, you need to double up when u can.BTW, I  play an unorthodox aggressive style.....not a gambler in the very least....

By "gambler," I don't mean in the negative sense -- i.e. calling blindly -- I mean willing to risk coinflips in order to maintain your aggressive image... a la Brunson. With a made hand, you obviously made the right play, particularly because you had me covered and a chance to take a commanding chip lead.I guess my question is whether it's dumb of ME to put my healthy stack at risk without a made hand when I figured it's at best 50/50 that you'll fold. These coinflips tend to come up a lot late in tournaments, and I'm not sure how my push rates in EV and whatnot. I do know that if I had made the final table that there are at least five players who could flat out outplay me, so I think that was in the back of my mind.Curious to know if you fold to an all-in after the K hits the flop, or if you put me on a hand with no K. The fact that I played so tight probably telegraphed to players that if low cards hit the flop, they could probably steal a pot from me if they took away my odds to draw. Just wondering what you put me on when I pushed.Thanks!

[Deepkoncntrtion]

[quote]I guess my question is whether it's dumb of ME to put my healthy stack at risk without a made hand when I figured it's at best 50/50 that you'll fold. Curious to know if you fold to an all-in after the K hits the flop, or if you put me on a hand with no K.[/quoteWhen I encounter an aggressive player in a tourny and they have me covered, I will always flop play rather than go all in before the flop with a hand like AK or AQ etc...If I have a made hand then its a different story. You can always test the strength of the raisers hand by re-raising a little, rather than going all in....this way when a high card hits your bluff will be believable....if no high card hits you can still bluff a flush or fold.An aggressive player will raise everytime they have a somewhat decent hand (2 steal the blinds), so if someone hits the flop (or bluffs) and they go all in....we r more likely to fold....the aggressive player knows that all he has to do is steal 2 more rounds of blinds and he's even again. If u went all in after the flop when the king hit I would have folded. U put me on a small pocket pair....the gamble for u is that u don't know if I hit my set....this will occur ~12% of the time (7.5 to 1), so I would still move all in. Another reason I would flop play if I was in your position is because you did have a healthy stack. If you were short stacked the call would of been more justifiable. This can be argued either way....my personal preference is to flop play when I am covered. On the other hand if u have someone covered u are more correct in taking the coin flip.

[Bonobio]

All in all qronic, you had some kind of voodoo power in your favor that night.