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festivus checkup. bb with 56o. no, really! (2/4)


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#41 mrdannyg

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Posted 28 December 2005 - 05:59 PM

mrdannyg said:

Wingmaster05 said:

Sysvr4 said:

RISEorFall said:

What are the odds of you flopping a straight or trips? that's the odds I'd want, because I don't even feel safe flopping 2 pair here as you're vulnerable as all hell
That's nuts.If UTG has AA and I flop two pair I'm a 91% favorite to win. I can then bet, he'll raise and blow away the field and, viola, I'm HU as a 9:1 favorite. Jeff
Huh? there is no way that is right.
nope.depending on which two pair we flop:top two:http://www.twodimes....2c,...d 5s, 6c73.7:26.3bottom two:http://www.twodimes....Jc,...d 5s, 6c74.5:25.5since they're connected, it's gotta be top or bottom two, so we are closer to a 3:1 favourite, not 9:1.for most people who, like myself, skip long and boring strat posts with lots of numbers, i suggest actually reading sluggo's post. some good good stuff in there.daniel
oops. forgot sometimes you have better than two pair.sluggo was also mistaken though, since AA will often have more than two outs, since one of the easiest ways for 56 to get ahead of AA is by flopping two pair, and AA will have more than two outs against that.so its somewhere between a 3:1 and a 9:1 favourite :club:
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#42 Sysvr4

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Posted 28 December 2005 - 06:29 PM

Wingmaster05 said:

Huh?   there is no way that is right.
Evidently not because I can't replicate the results. The only thing I can figure is that I fat-fingered it and typed 55 or 66 instead of 56 for my hole cards :)Jeff

#43 Sluggo

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Posted 28 December 2005 - 06:40 PM

I don't see how so many people claimed 56o was an easy fold. You're getting great odds, enough to claim that 56o is an easy call.

#44 screech

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Posted 28 December 2005 - 07:14 PM

Sluggo said:

I don't see how so many people claimed 56o was an easy fold. You're getting great odds, enough to claim that 56o is an easy call.
Sluggo,You're analysis is well thought out, but it's wrong. A small 2 pair will often hold up, but it will frequently get counterfeited or beated by stronger hands. When this happens, you lose a lot. Same goes for when you flop hands like middle pair, or top pair. Your reverse implied odds are terrible. I also think you're giving way to much credit to how large the pots we win will be. To think we will win 18BB pots about 8.3% of the time is a gross overestimate. I can't even remember the last time I won an 18bb pot. Let alone with a small 2 pair, trips with a weak kicker, or quads. There's no way you get that much action with these hands.

Quote

spend 1 bb 100% and 2bb an additional 10% of the time when we chase our straight draw.
I have no idea wher you got these numbers to. We are only spending 1-2bb when we chase, yet 8% of the time the pot will be 18bb's? Maybe I'm missing something.I agree that it's close, but it's definetly -EV getting 7.5:1, here. An expert player might be able to play after the flop getting 9:1, but most of us aren't up to that level.

#45 Actuary

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Posted 28 December 2005 - 08:50 PM

I'll go on record to say, I'm making calls with these hands more often. Implied tilt odds, table image, uh..stubborn, and practice.Anyone else fessing up?

#46 econ_tim

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Posted 28 December 2005 - 09:41 PM

you should fold thisespecially if you are multi-tabling

#47 Sluggo

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Posted 28 December 2005 - 10:04 PM

screech said:

Sluggo,I have no idea wher you got these numbers to.  We are only spending 1-2bb when we chase, yet 8% of the time the pot will be 18bb's?  Maybe I'm missing something.I agree that it's close, but it's definetly -EV getting 7.5:1, here.  An expert player might be able to play after the flop getting 9:1, but most of us aren't up to that level.
bbs, not BBs. An 18 big bet pot would be huge. An 18 big blind pot, not so much. A pot with 9 limpers and a raise is already 18 big blinds before the flop is even dealt. When we chase, we call 1 bb on the flop and 2 bb on the turn for a total of 3 bbs which I edited my post to reflect.

#48 Wingmaster05

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Posted 28 December 2005 - 11:09 PM

Actuary said:

I'll go on record to say, I'm making calls with these hands more often.  Implied tilt odds, table image, uh..stubborn, and practice.Anyone else fessing up?
Me too. A quick glance at the pot and mulitple cold calls...and i usually call.

#49 Canada

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Posted 29 December 2005 - 01:44 AM

Very easy call. make it all day long.UTG has announced he has a monster and is on your immediate left (that is not a pre-req, just a bonus)Reading his and the rest of the fields hands will be extremely easy.Everyone seems to be scared of the counterfitting, however if you do flop a decent hand you will be paid off to the end because of the pot size and opponents holdings.Also your good hands will still hold up the vast majority of timesEdit: The single most important reason for playing these hands. Can everyone say "Implied tilt odds"? :club:
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#50 screech

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Posted 29 December 2005 - 08:04 AM

Sluggo said:

screech said:

Sluggo,I have no idea wher you got these numbers to.  We are only spending 1-2bb when we chase, yet 8% of the time the pot will be 18bb's?  Maybe I'm missing something.I agree that it's close, but it's definetly -EV getting 7.5:1, here.  An expert player might be able to play after the flop getting 9:1, but most of us aren't up to that level.
bbs, not BBs. An 18 big bet pot would be huge. An 18 big blind pot, not so much. A pot with 9 limpers and a raise is already 18 big blinds before the flop is even dealt. When we chase, we call 1 bb on the flop and 2 bb on the turn for a total of 3 bbs which I edited my post to reflect.
My mistake.I had no idea there was a difference betweeen BB's and bb's. :-)Good analysis sluggo. I wonder how well the 1 gappers do?

#51 mrdannyg

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Posted 29 December 2005 - 10:27 AM

screech said:

Sluggo said:

screech said:

Sluggo,I have no idea wher you got these numbers to. We are only spending 1-2bb when we chase, yet 8% of the time the pot will be 18bb's? Maybe I'm missing something.I agree that it's close, but it's definetly -EV getting 7.5:1, here. An expert player might be able to play after the flop getting 9:1, but most of us aren't up to that level.
bbs, not BBs. An 18 big bet pot would be huge. An 18 big blind pot, not so much. A pot with 9 limpers and a raise is already 18 big blinds before the flop is even dealt. When we chase, we call 1 bb on the flop and 2 bb on the turn for a total of 3 bbs which I edited my post to reflect.
My mistake.I had no idea there was a difference betweeen BB's and bb's. :-)Good analysis sluggo. I wonder how well the 1 gappers do?
my understanding was that bb=BBthe difference being that bb/BB stands for "big bets" in limit and "big blinds" in no limit.
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