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festivus checkup. bb with 56o. no, really! (2/4)


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#21 No_Neck

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Posted 26 December 2005 - 09:23 AM

screech said:

Sysvr4 said:

I see lots of "fold"s and not many "because"s. Anyone care to give us a detailed account of why this is such an "easy" fold? I've decided I'm not just going to take Ed Miller's word for it anymore.Jeff/blasphemer
I fold because I read it somewhere. :-)I read a thread on 2+2 a while back that dealt with the kind of implied odds you need to call with different offsuit connectors. I can't remember exactly what it was, but something tells me you shouldn't call here, and it's not really that close. I wish I had more to give you than that. I'll try to dig up that thread.
screech is a double posting newb :club: I think it really depends on how good a read you have on the guy, do you know if he will bet out on the flop no matter what? Do you know what he will check raise with? will he check raise bluff. If you have a good read on him and can play well post flop the odds are good. Me when I play hands like this they turn into 2nd best and I lose money so I fold.

#22 Sysvr4

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Posted 26 December 2005 - 10:16 AM

screech said:

I read a thread on 2+2 a while back that dealt with the kind of implied odds you need to call with different offsuit connectors.
That sounds like exactly the kind of analysis I'd like to see on this hand. I barely follow 2+2 anymore so I'd have no clue where to look. If you can find it I'd appreciate it...Jeff

#23 Sysvr4

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Posted 26 December 2005 - 10:25 AM

Sysvr4 said:

As a side note, I seem to remember Daniel posting in a LHE strategy hand similar to this one where he said call... I can't find it though. Anyone remember that or can dig it up?
Yeah, I'm quoting myself here... the narcissist in me demands it. :)I found the thread. Here tis:http://www.fullconta...3903&highlight=Now, there are a couple of differences, so I'll go ahead and point them out:1) Hero is getting 9.5:1 and I'm getting only 7:12) Hero's hand is 45o and mine is 56o. Thus, I have better high card strength :)Here's a key quote from Daniel:

DanielNegreanu said:

For one extra bet you should call in the big blind with 4-5. I don't really care if there is one, two, three, or twenty players in the pot!You can make a case for folding against an early position raise heads up, but generally when you are getting 3.5 to 1 on a call with 4-5 it's worth taking a look at the flop.
Someone please refute Daniel's argument with more than "Ed Miller says to", etc...Furthermore, a big followup question for all of you who say fold:What are the minimum odds with which you would call with this hand in the BB and why? Jeff

#24 screech

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Posted 26 December 2005 - 01:07 PM

Jeff,I don't really have time to go into much detail right now, but I think Daniel is wrong here. You have a hand that's much worse than average and makes a ton of second best hands. Yes, you are getting good odds pf, but your equity pf is pretty damn poor. Couple this with your poor position, and it seems like a pretty easy fold.

#25 mrdannyg

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Posted 26 December 2005 - 05:10 PM

screech said:

Jeff,I don't really have time to go into much detail right now, but I think Daniel is wrong here. You have a hand that's much worse than average and makes a ton of second best hands. Yes, you are getting good odds pf, but your equity pf is pretty damn poor. Couple this with your poor position, and it seems like a pretty easy fold.
if you were posting in the CO, i may call this, but in position i fold as well. "because" were already posted very well i think.and i think DN is correct that you should call there, but only if you have the post flop "skillz" of someone like DN. given our hand's visibility (thanks to an earlier poster for that term) and the fact we are not professionals, i think we lay this down.
Long signatures are really annoying.

#26 Sluggo

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Posted 26 December 2005 - 10:12 PM

3.5 : 1

#27 RISEorFall

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Posted 26 December 2005 - 10:21 PM

Sysvr4 said:

This is the part I'll argue.  UTG has all the signs of a TAG to me, which means his raising hands UTG are:AK-AJ (and maybe ATs)KQ-KJ (and maybe KTs, but I won't count it)(maybe QJs, but I won't count it)AA-77  
Nope. TIGHT aggressive means he's not raising most of these hands UTG. I give him AKs and off, AQs and maybe off. Maybe AJs. AA-1010. KQs and maybe KJs but I doubt it. No way in hell he's raising QJs. If he's tight enough he's even folding AQo, AJs and anything lower than KQo. I see about 9-10 hands a tight player is raising here, and half of those are high PPs. Tight players might CALL with KQo and KJs, QJs and 99-77, but they won't raise them, not UTG

#28 RISEorFall

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Posted 26 December 2005 - 10:25 PM

Sysvr4 said:

[What are the minimum odds with which you would call with this hand in the BB and why?  Jeff
What are the odds of you flopping a straight or trips? that's the odds I'd want, because I don't even feel safe flopping 2 pair here as you're vulnerable as all hell. if you think you have the skills and hand reading ability of Daniel, call with it all day. Since you don't, fold.

#29 borinka99

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Posted 27 December 2005 - 02:34 AM

RISEorFall said:

Sysvr4 said:

[What are the minimum odds with which you would call with this hand in the BB and why? Jeff
What are the odds of you flopping a straight or trips? that's the odds I'd want, because I don't even feel safe flopping 2 pair here as you're vulnerable as all hell. if you think you have the skills and hand reading ability of Daniel, call with it all day. Since you don't, fold.
I don't know exactly, but I know that the odds of flopping a straight or trips is VERY LOW. I would fold this too because it is just a bad hand, you have to flop something perfect to win, and even then you can be outdrawn, not mentioning the horrible position.

#30 Sysvr4

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Posted 27 December 2005 - 05:50 AM

RISEorFall said:

if you think you have the skills and hand reading ability of Daniel, call with it all day. Since you don't, fold.
People keep using this fallacious argument.Daniel was advising the OP in the other thread to call. He didn't say, "I and only I should call because of my superior, and unique post-flop abilities". Furthermore, I think many of you are deluding yourselves if you think the ability of the pros are so vastly superior that they can turn what many of you believe is a clearly -EV call such as this into a +EV one. I'm not saying being good post flop doesn't help, but the argument many of you are inadvertently making is that someone like Daniel could cold call all day with 23o and magically make it +EV.And FYI, this argument is not to say the call was correct. I still haven't figured that out yet, but I felt the need to point out this particular fallacy.Jeff

#31 Sysvr4

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Posted 27 December 2005 - 05:59 AM

RISEorFall said:

What are the odds of you flopping a straight or trips? that's the odds I'd want, because I don't even feel safe flopping 2 pair here as you're vulnerable as all hell
That's nuts.If UTG has AA and I flop two pair I'm a 91% favorite to win. I can then bet, he'll raise and blow away the field and, viola, I'm HU as a 9:1 favorite. I agree that we'll need a big piece of the flop though. I think it's something like:a) two pairB) tripsc) pair that turns into two pair or trips on turn or (maybe) riverd) oesd on the flop that comes in by the rivere) gutshot on the flop that comes in by the turnPerhaps I'll spend some time today calculating and adding the odds of all of these.Jeff

#32 Sysvr4

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Posted 27 December 2005 - 07:48 AM

I'm spewing in my own thread here, sorry.I've been doing some calculating on this problem, but before I show the results of that I have one last question for everyone saying this is an easy fold:Do you also fold if we have 56s in this same spot?If not, what are the minimum odds you need to call if your hand is a suited connector vs. an unsuited one in the BB?Jeff

#33 screech

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Posted 27 December 2005 - 10:00 AM

I hate that "if you have DNs skillz call" crap too. Obviously he's a better player than anyone here, but I don't think he is that much better that he can squeeze enough out of the hand to make it profitable.Jeff,I call with 56s all day here. That extra 6% pf equity is a huge difference. I probably should have been clearer in my previous posts that calling with 56o here isn't a huge leak, but it's definetly a money loser in the long run.

#34 Actuary

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Posted 27 December 2005 - 11:25 AM

I find when I'm running good at the table, usually showing down Aq type hands, I might call with 65o in a multitway pot...to show trash down. Anyone forgetting I was BB especially, gets annoyed. Hell, anyone who loses.but, its fun to play it, not porfitable, long term imo..but really close..so fun wins often!65s? all day.In a lot more places than just BB, too.

#35 mrdannyg

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Posted 27 December 2005 - 07:44 PM

Sysvr4 said:

RISEorFall said:

if you think you have the skills and hand reading ability of Daniel, call with it all day. Since you don't, fold.
People keep using this fallacious argument.Daniel was advising the OP in the other thread to call. He didn't say, "I and only I should call because of my superior, and unique post-flop abilities". Furthermore, I think many of you are deluding yourselves if you think the ability of the pros are so vastly superior that they can turn what many of you believe is a clearly -EV call such as this into a +EV one. I'm not saying being good post flop doesn't help, but the argument many of you are inadvertently making is that someone like Daniel could cold call all day with 23o and magically make it +EV.And FYI, this argument is not to say the call was correct. I still haven't figured that out yet, but I felt the need to point out this particular fallacy.Jeff
i think it is reasonable to say that a far superior player could make a marginal situation +EV, though it might be -EV for a less skilled player.i think calling 56o to a raise in a multi-way pot from the big blind is a marginal situation, though probably unprofitable. perfect (or better than perfect, i.e. with +EV bluffs) post-flop play might make this call profitable, whereas the less-than-perfect post-flop play that might be expected due to the lack of transparency with our hand probably makes this call -EV.daniel
Long signatures are really annoying.

#36 RISEorFall

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Posted 28 December 2005 - 09:15 AM

mrdannyg said:

i think it is reasonable to say that a far superior player could make a marginal situation +EV, though it might be -EV for a less skilled player.i think calling 56o to a raise in a multi-way pot from the big blind is a marginal situation, though probably unprofitable.  perfect (or better than perfect, i.e. with +EV bluffs) post-flop play might make this call profitable, whereas the less-than-perfect post-flop play that might be expected due to the lack of transparency with our hand probably makes this call -EV.daniel
Yeah, basically. If you have the skills to read your opponent's hands for almost exactly what they are, determine if you're beat or not, and then determine if you can make them lay a better hand down or not - and the skills to maximize your profit if you do flop something big, then by all means play this hand all day. If you don't, well, whatever. If you want to play this hand in this spot because "Daniel said I could" then you have fun. Don't let me get in your way.

#37 Sluggo

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Posted 28 December 2005 - 05:13 PM

Probability of flopping two pairs or trips or a full house or quads:6*5/50/49+6*5/50/48+6*5/49/48-2*6*5*4/50/49/48 = .036Probability of flopping open ended straight draw:((8*8+8*4)*(42+41+40))/50/49/48 = .100which will improve to a straight about 34% of the time (we'll have odds to call to the river)Probability of flopping straight:4*12*8*4/50/49/48 = .013Because these are all powerful hands, I'm going to assume they all win at showdown. This tiny overestimate is canceled by the probably greater fact that we won't bet at weakness or ever win with a pair. Now let's determine EV. If two players fold on the flop and one player calls us down (or three-bets flop and folds river, or raises turn and fold river) or we call down with our straight draw, the pot will be 18 bbs at showdown.So if we call getting 7:1 on our money...We win 18 bbs 8.3% of the time with a monster and spend 1 bb 100% and 3bb an additional 10% of the time when we chase our straight draw.EV= 18*.083 - 1-3*.1= .194 bbsIf we fold...EV=0.194 > 0, thus we should call.If we were getting 3.5:1 on our money (so we win less and can't draw to the river with a straight draw)...EV = -.243This second figure is an approximation assuming we never win with a pair or bluff which is probably untrue in a heads up pot.This all means if there is one coldcaller or more, we can profitably call. Even if there isn't a caller, it still may be profitable, depending on postflop play.I think some people (myself included) are getting into a frame of mind where some hands are "bad" and some are "good." It all depends on equity and the odds you're being offered. 7:1 is huge. Getting into the pot for half price makes any coordinated hand (suited or connected or high) worth playing.

DanielNegreanu said:

You HAVE to call with that hand in the BB. Folding would, without out a shadow of a doubt, be a mistake...
-DN, referring to 45o getting 9.5:1He doesn't seem to think this is very marginal.

#38 Wingmaster05

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Posted 28 December 2005 - 05:41 PM

Sysvr4 said:

RISEorFall said:

What are the odds of you flopping a straight or trips? that's the odds I'd want, because I don't even feel safe flopping 2 pair here as you're vulnerable as all hell
That's nuts.If UTG has AA and I flop two pair I'm a 91% favorite to win. I can then bet, he'll raise and blow away the field and, viola, I'm HU as a 9:1 favorite. Jeff
Huh? there is no way that is right.

#39 Sluggo

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Posted 28 December 2005 - 05:51 PM

It isn't 91% because two pair can be counterfeited by the board pairing.There's a 91% that AA won't hit a third on the turn or river.

#40 mrdannyg

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Posted 28 December 2005 - 05:52 PM

Wingmaster05 said:

Sysvr4 said:

RISEorFall said:

What are the odds of you flopping a straight or trips? that's the odds I'd want, because I don't even feel safe flopping 2 pair here as you're vulnerable as all hell
That's nuts.If UTG has AA and I flop two pair I'm a 91% favorite to win. I can then bet, he'll raise and blow away the field and, viola, I'm HU as a 9:1 favorite. Jeff
Huh? there is no way that is right.
nope.depending on which two pair we flop:top two:http://www.twodimes....2c,...d 5s, 6c73.7:26.3bottom two:http://www.twodimes....Jc,...d 5s, 6c74.5:25.5since they're connected, it's gotta be top or bottom two, so we are closer to a 3:1 favourite, not 9:1.for most people who, like myself, skip long and boring strat posts with lots of numbers, i suggest actually reading sluggo's post. some good good stuff in there.daniel
Long signatures are really annoying.




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