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hand analysis - please help


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#1 bigedjr17

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 01:50 PM

Forgive the manual HH but it was on FTP.Down to 5 in a 2-table SNG.. pays top 4..I'm one of two short stacks with appprox T3500.. 2nd biggest stack is onmy left with approx T7500..Blinds 120-240 with 25 (or 40?) ante.. folded to me in SB I have Ks7h..Normally I'd either fold or raise to try and steal the BB but the guy on my left hadpicked me off a couple of times so I decided to complete and see what he did.. hechecked..Flop came AsJs7s.. if I came right out and bet my pr of 7s with nut flushdraw I was afraid of being raised and being faced with a tough decision (Inretrospect I might've taken it down right there).. I checked.. BB bet 1200.. which is an overbetin my mind.. I figure I have at least 12 outs.. any 7, or spade, maybe even aKing so maybe 15.. Also from his bet I thought maybe he had a naked Ace.. and I couldget him to lay down to a raise.. also he could be a straight steal after I checkedthat scary board.. with the amount I had left I decided to push in.. he thought forabout 45 seconds and called.. flipped QcJc.. I don't improve and bubble out..Was he justified in calling? Did I need to try and double up? I really didwant 1st or 2nd not 3rd or 4th.. and it turned out I did have 15 outs..Any help would be appreciated..
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#2 sloshr

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 02:10 PM

I like your play. No way this guy should call, but I guess he wanted to take you out. Just because you lost doesn't mean it was wrong. To win a tournament, you need to get lucky sometimes, and despite his bad call, you are about 50/50 on this hand and just didn't get there. As long as you weren't counting on 4th place money, you did fine.

#3 Ebonwoulfe

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 02:27 PM

Hmm.. well, you were winning when you called. I guess the only fault in your play is that you might have wanted to push and see if he folded on the flop, just so you didn't have to take your chances of improving (you're only a 51% favorite in the hand, so you're not solid, might as well push and realize that no matter what happens, you gave yourself a good chance to win it right there). Well, that's tough luck. Yeah he should have folded, but if you didn't have enough to scare him after he got committed, then you should expect him to call. The only reason to want him to bet first is so that he commits himself to the pot. You want to bet first with a chance to improve and a chance to take it down like that in a tourney. Winning the pot right out is your first goal, winning the pot by hitting your outs is the second goal.

#4 Mister Hand

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 02:30 PM

At the risk of nitpicking, you had 14 outs.I don't think you played badly, per se...but by checking the flop, you risk his betting, which means he's getting better pot odds to call you if you check-raise all-in. If he has a hand like A :D x, you've made it easier for him to call then if you had just bet all-in when first to act. Having said that, I don't think you would have been able to push him off this hand, with him being one of the monster stacks. Chances are he put you on a semibluff flush draw as well. I don't think his call is a bad one, as he's got top pair with a decent kicker, and if he loses he still won't be the short stack.
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#5 Guest_XXEddie_*

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 02:32 PM

He was justified in his play becausea) you didnt raise pre-flop....most people with an A wuld ofB) he had the better hand

#6 bigedjr17

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 02:39 PM

Actually I was slight fav bef the flop K7 vs. QJ, (but that doesn't matter bec there was no raise pre-flop) and the flop had the A of spades so I think you may have misread, but thanks everyone for your responses, at least I know my thinking was right.
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#7 Ebonwoulfe

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 02:39 PM

Yo Eddie, he had mid pair, but check the odds. Mid pair no flush draw < bottom pair and flush draw. Granted, mid pair would always be justified in calling here, since he's only slightly worse than 1:1 to lose and it's impossible for pot odds to get that bad to not justify the call, but against sb who had enough of a hand to complete with and enough of a hand to c/r with now, it might signify enough strength to get the BB to lay it down.Of course, if you didn't have enough chips to get the BB to flee, then you should expect the call. I think the automatic call here is somewhere in the range of 3:1 or more. At least for me it is.Of course, made flush > all of them, but neither player thought the other one had the made hand.

#8 Guest_XXEddie_*

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 02:41 PM

bigedjr17 said:

Actually I was slight fav bef the flop K7 vs. QJ, (but that doesn't matter bec there was no raise pre-flop) and the flop had the A of spades so I think you may have misread, but thanks everyone for your responses, at least I know my thinking was right.
He still had the best hand....you were the fvorite...but he had the best hand. I forgot to add this previously but there was no fault on your part.

#9 sloshr

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 02:48 PM

the last 2 posters are getting the facts wrong. The big stack was not committed (or should not have been), as the all-in move was a big raise. He did not have top pair, with an A on the flop, and big Ed played exactly like he had a flush, in which case the big stack was drawing to runner-runner full house. The big stack actually was very weak and unless he had a great read, played very badly. Even so, he was not the favorite seeing big Ed's cards, though he was getting good enough odds. However, he risked half of his stack when he could easily be drawing dead. I still like Ed's play here, with about a 75% chance of getting the other guy to fold and about a 50% chance of improving his hand if called.

#10 Mister Hand

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 03:20 PM

My bad on misreading the flop. Forgot that the ace was on the board. The fact that he doesn't have top pair does change things. But it still might not be that bad a call. Eddie has a point: if the op had an ace, it's unlikely that he would limp in that situation. Most players will raise there. You say the op played the hand exactly like he flopped a flush. I think he played it exactly like a flush draw. It's been my experience that most players will slowplay the flush, even with two little suited cards. The all-in check raise looks like a semibluff.Having said all that, I probably would have folded the QJ there, especially if I hand't seen the OP make any "moves" during the tourney.
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#11 Royal_Tour

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 04:12 PM

This hand is a tuff one to play, 1st off., since he bet out 1200, and u raised your stack, it was only another 1800 for him to call.2nd off, in that situation, you got lucky that there was no preflop raise, so by not moving all in after the flop was your first mistake, especially since you were short stacked. How can he call your all-in after the flop when he only has middle pair??.. But if he did call, well you still have 14 outs, and if your outs dont hit. *well my friend,, thats poker*Best of luck




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