from josh

[murmar 0]

Five diamond classic hand: I think the blinds were 400-800 or 5-1000.First position raises, normal raise.... I call with 45 of hearts.... the small blind is shortstacked and decides to see the flop himself.... the flop comes A68 with one heart.... the SB checks and the raiser bets 4500, I believe there was about 10k in the pot, maybe a bit more. I call the 4500 with the gut straight draw, but I had plans for the bettor, I wasnt convinced that he had an ace, I wanted to see what he would do on the turn.... Now is when it gets freaky... the small blind has a total of 7k and JUST calls the 4500 leaving him with 2500 left... what he was thinking, I don’t know, but his play truly costs me the pot.... The turn is the best card in the deck for me, the 3 of hearts, now I have an open-ended straight and a flush draw... Much to my surprise, both players check to me.... Now is when I trick myself.... I thought to myself “if I check here I am basically giving up and I am at the mercy of the deck. If I bet, I can make a side pot that is worth bluffing at on the river.” I bet 7k knowing the player from the SB is going to call 2500, he does... then the worst thing in the world happens.... the raiser moves allin.... man o man.... I called myself every name in the book.... why on earth didn’t I take the free card???? by now, everyone else in the room is bagging their chips up, its loud as hell because everyone is done for the day, I cant hear a thing and I’m in the process of making my biggest decision of the tournament. Its 23k to me and I have 32k in chips... if I call and miss I am left with 10k going into tomorrow and if my table is juicy I am going to be one hot S.O.B that I dusted most of my chips off on the last hand. The pot was laying me 64,000 to my 23,000 call... .I have 15 outs with one too come.. There are basically 45 unknown cards...( I can actually only see 6 cards, but I am sure one of my opponents cards are an ace)... Mathmatically I would need 3-1 to call so the pot would need 69,000..... After a long miserable deliberation, I decide to fold and to fight another day... The raiser had AK and the small blind had J8, I guess he had no interest in coming back the next day with a short stack, so he just stuck what he had in there.... The river was a heart and I would have finished with close to 90k....Now, he says he needs the pot to be 69000 to be correct odds here. Wouldn't the 5000 be more than made up for by the fact that if he hits, he has such a better chance to win/cash than if he starts day two with 32k? Is it just me, or is this a great example how you don't need perfect pot odds to make that call in tournament poker? (I don't play tournaments for the most part)

[zimmer4141 0]

OK, I haven't played any $10k buyin tourneys, but I think you made the worst possible play on the turn. The SB is going to be in the pot anyway, so you have to hit your draw to win. Just take the free card and try to hit your flush/straight.

[Bizzle 0]

I think this is a play that a pro would get incredibly pissed off at an amateur about, but that if a pro makes it they can give reasons for it and won't allow anyone else to be mad at them.Basically, it comes down to this. He was planning on not once but TWICE bluffing a dry side pot, which is something that many would perceive to be an unforgivable sin. His goal with the turn bet is to create a 9k sidepot which he will then bluff at on the river. Basically, he is going to put 7k at risk on the turn in hopes of winning the full pot 1/3 of the time and the 9k sidepot 2/3 of the time. In order to win the sidepot, odds are he will have to risk 12k more on the river (maybe more), so basically his turn play is trying to add on risking ~19k to win 9k to his normal winnings when he wins the main pot. The other thing I don't like about this play is the fact that Josh's odds of winning the hand really do not change if he eliminates a player-his 15 outs are probably good either way. If he bets and the original raiser folds, all that happens is the shortstack is now twice as likely to basically triple up.I think a check on the turn is very useful. He has picked up a monster draw and could get paid big time if he spikes it on the river. Why risk the chips in a situation where you KNOW you are going to get at least called when you could take a free card and then make a decision with full knowledge on the river?

[copernicus 0]

fold preflop

[therrinn 0]

The call on the flop is ridonkulous, if you ask me. Sounds like a case of convincing yourself that your opponent doesn't have anything because you're in the mood to play some crappy cards. If you ever stop and realise that you're drawing to a draw, folding is more than likely your best choice. So the original raiser had 30k left and you made a bet of 7k expecting him to just call? At that point his decision is clear: all-in, or fold. I'm not sure if there are circumstances where this sort of play makes sense, but I don't see how this situation is one of them.

[Bizzle 0]

The call on the flop is ridonkulous, if you ask me. Sounds like a case of convincing yourself that your opponent doesn't have anything because you're in the mood to play some crappy cards. If you ever stop and realise that you're drawing to a draw, folding is more than likely your best choice. So the original raiser had 30k left and you made a bet of 7k expecting him to just call? At that point his decision is clear: all-in, or fold. I'm not sure if there are circumstances where this sort of play makes sense, but I don't see how this situation is one of them.

Drawing to a draw can be very profitable if you can get it in the right circumstances-cheaply, oftentimes in a larger field, and it won't cost you that much to see the turn. In this case, Josh is looking at a scenario where he is a) trying to get head's up and B) calling a half-pot bet with an inside straight draw that costs him approximately 1/10th of his stack. I know he feels that he can blow the UTG raiser off his hand, but even with the added fold equity, I still don't know if I would make this play.

[copernicus 0]

1. The pre-flop call is bad. With an UTG raiser and no other callers before you, you dont have the implied odds to play middle suited connectors. Low suited connectors are even less playable in good circumstances.2. Calling the raise on the flop is awful as others note.3. The turn bet (as OP realizes) violates the "dont raise if you hate a reraise" principle. You have sunk a ton of money on bad plays, but you have outs. You absolutely have to give yourself a chance to see them.4. When the tourney is breaking for the day youve got 2 types of adjustments to normal play, those who freeze up because they dont want to go broke on the last hand of the day, and those who don't think their current stack is worth spending the overnight. Small blind is obviously one of the latter, and its nice to have his dead money in the pot but his actions should have no influence on how you play the hand.

[DrZebra 0]

You should not have bet the turn.You have to call his all-in after you do.

[copernicus 0]

You should not have bet the turn.You have to call his all-in after you do.

Agreed...prize equity more than makes up for a small shortfall in pot odds.

[statedogg 0]

When I read this on his site I was surprised he was only upset at his turn play. I think he played very poorly on every street. UTG raiser...why even call with 45 on the flop gut shot and back door low flush...why call the bet Now where I really get lost is his turn play, besides the bet which most of us agree is terrible why fold here? He says his odds weren't right, but as I calculate his odds they were right for a call even ignoring implied odds. He says pot is laying 64k to 23k 2.8-1. He has 15 outs 2.1-1, right? So aren't the odds correct for a call or am I missing something? Now, I might worry that I don't really have 15 outs as I can see it possible that my flush wouldn't be big enough, but he doesn't mention this as a factor in his decision. He said he would be mad if he missed out on a juicy table. I really like Josh, but playing like that I'd say any table he is at would be juicy.

[copernicus 0]

When I read this on his site I was surprised he was only upset at his turn play. I think he played very poorly on every street. UTG raiser...why even call with 45 on the flop gut shot and back door low flush...why call the bet Now where I really get lost is his turn play, besides the bet which most of us agree is terrible why fold here? He says his odds weren't right, but as I calculate his odds they were right for a call even ignoring implied odds. He says pot is laying 64k to 23k 2.8-1. He has 15 outs 2.1-1, right? So aren't the odds correct for a call or am I missing something? Now, I might worry that I don't really have 15 outs as I can see it possible that my flush wouldn't be big enough, but he doesn't mention this as a factor in his decision. He said he would be mad if he missed out on a juicy table. I really like Josh, but playing like that I'd say any table he is at would be juicy.

yes..he says 15 outs on 45 cards and concludes he needs 3/1 when that means only 2/1. Who is Josh?

[Tateisgo 0]

Who is Josh?

http://www.josharieh.com/

[copernicus 0]

Who is Josh?

http://www.josharieh.com/

Wow. Ive lost a tremendous amount of respect for his play.Edit: Reading more of his journal it really looks like he was burned out from the travel/Vegas life. I would love to read a defense of all of the streets here, not just the obvious turn error.

[Tateisgo 0]

Who is Josh?

http://www.josharieh.com/

Wow. Ive lost a tremendous amount of respect for his play.Edit: Reading more of his journal it really looks like he was burned out from the travel/Vegas life. I would love to read a defense of all of the streets here, not just the obvious turn error.

When I first read "from josh" I immediatly thought it was him, but after reading the hand I had to look it up because I couldn't believe he'd play this hand so badly.

[murmar 0]

We agree then. I wasn't even looking at most of the hand, just the pod odds on the turn. He wrote another journal entry saying somebody taught him what he didn't know about pot odds recently, so hopefully he won't make that play again. That "don't bet if you hate a reraise" is great advice.

[copernicus 0]

We agree then.  I wasn't even looking at most of the hand, just the pod odds on the turn.  He wrote another journal entry saying somebody taught him what he didn't know about pot odds recently, so hopefully he won't make that play again.  That "don't bet if you hate a reraise" is great advice.

Its simply bey0nd comprehension that someone could play poker for 14 years, obviously quite successfully, and not have learned that 1/3 chance to win means you need 2:1, not 3:1 to break even!

[ArseneLupin3 0]

how is the turn the best card for you..wouldn't hitting your gutshot be the best as opposed to picking up more outs in a pot where you only have one card to come and will likely be faced with a decision for a lot of chips with only a marginally profitable situation?