4 replies to this topic

[MrConceit]

Another thread reminded me of something I checked (because I'm a geek) a couple days ago. Have any of you ever looked at how often you should (statistically) have gotten a specific pocket vs how often you did?When I was reading up on Tracker a few days ago, (because I realized there were a lot of things I didn't know about it), I did wonder.So based on 20,949 hands of 15/30 I should have gotten a specific PP roughly .45 percent of the time. Though when calculating exact stuff I didn't use that, I used 1/13*3/51 to keep the various sig figs and be more accurate.So I should be getting a specific one 95 times (94.79 rounded).AA: 78KK: 110QQ: 80JJ: 10399: 112I included 99 because that's the most I have received any PP in this sample. So my range is min 78 (for AA CRY), and max of 112, with expect at 95.So then I checked my overall hands in tracker for about 55k hands.Hands: 55117Expected: 249 (249.40 rounded)AA: 230KK: 276QQ: 243JJ: 26122: 221The 55k hand sample includes the 21k of course, they aren't independent. So min of 221 and max of 276 with expected at 249.So my conclusion is of course PARTYPOKER IS RIGGED, I'M NOT GETTING ENOUGH POCKET ROCKETS!!11Err I mean :)At least KK is near the top in received if AA is at the bottom.

[hexag1]

seems about rightcan you post your complete PP totals?all your pocket pairs AA + KK + QQ + JJ + 22 = 1231 poket pairs (of the ranklisted A-J and 2)1232 PPs /5 ranks = 246.2 PPs / 55K handsaverage pps = 246.2 expected pps = 249.4thats pretty closei would bet that if you included all the different ranks it would average even closer to 249.hexag1

[MrConceit]

hexag1 said:

seems about rightcan you post your complete PP totals?all your pocket pairs AA + KK + QQ + JJ + 22 =  1231 poket pairs (of the ranklisted A-J and 2)1232 PPs /5 ranks =  246.2  PPs / 55K handsaverage pps = 246.2  expected pps = 249.4thats pretty closei would bet that if you included all the different ranks it would average even closer to 249.hexag1

Hah, didn't think anybody would be interested. This is from my now-defunct database, because as of a few days ago I grabbed all the 15/30 hands and made a new database to be faster, but from my original database of 55k-ish hands:AA: 230KK: 276QQ: 243JJ: 261TT: 24999: 25988: 23477: 25466: 22955: 26344: 23533: 24422: 221Sums to 3198, divided by 13 is 246Expected 249.4So yeah, it's not too far off.

[Alcatraz]

xniNja said:

Also, I'm saying this because my poker tracker stats with about 45,000 hands shows almost 1.8x as many pocket pairs as expected, and ~17x more pocket pair vs pocket pair showdowns than expected.

Consider that pair vs pair hands are more likely to get shown down than many other types of hands, particularly large pairs. It doesn't surprise me that you're seeing more pair v pair showdowns than expected. Keep in mind that your sample set is the hands players took to the river, which is a small percentage of hands dealt.