5 replies to this topic

[TheCinciKid]

I was watching "Learn from the Pros" on FSN and Christy Gazes mentioned the tell of someone's personality or actions changing. It reminded me of a hand I played at the casino this weekend. The game was fairly tight for the limit, and I don't remember the action exactly, but I'll try my best.I raised with A T and I was called by one player who I believe had position on me. Flop - (5 sb) A 3 4 I bet , Villain calls...A little background on the villain...he's been one of the louder and more talkative players at the table. Not a great player by any means, but not terrible either from what I could tell.Turn - (3.5 BB) A I bet (I now have trip Aces, but I'm not sure what to put my opponent on...I think he could possible have a better kicker, or a worse one...I'm not all that afraid of the spades since it's a heads-up pot.) Anyhow, the villain gets quiet and checks his cards, plays with his chips for a little bit and acts like he's trying to decide what to do. Eventually, he raisesNow, at this point, I think I'm probably beat, but I can't fold here, even if I'm behind I have no less than three outs and if he has the flush I have 10 outs. So, I callRiver - (7 BB) blank I check/callNow, I think I played the hand pretty well and there really isn't a whole lot to discuss, but I thought it was an interesting hand and I do wonder a little if I can fold the river. I'm pretty sure the villain is very strong and of course his raise on the turn couple with his weak act practically screams "I can beat trip Aces." Yet, in limit hold'em I'm pretty sure it's not a hand that you can get away from.

[Canada]

TheCinciKid said:

I'm pretty sure the villain is very strong and of course his raise on the turn couple with his weak act practically screams "I can beat trip Aces."  

Classic scenario where the 'feel guys' say go with you read and the 'math guys' say getting 8-1 you cant fold trips.Bring the 2 together to get the 'winning guy' answerIf feel 90% sure he doesn't have A-9 or worse fold

[LuckyMcCatcher]

I would really appreciate it if more detailed read were given. I think it has become custom to tag players as "typical donks," "or not to good but not that bad either." Try to give an example of a play that they made that sticks out for you. I understand that you had a read on him in this hand, but I think its tough too make real accurate reads in these high pressure situations, so it becomes important to remember what he has done in the past before you even consider laying down a hand this strong for one bet on the river.P.S. Ive had players just like the one you described do this and they actually were thinking about whether their hand was worth a raise and I folded the best hand thinking he was "hollywooding" the nuts.

[TheIceman05]

When I give advice here, especially to people who are still learning the game (not to suggest you are CinciKid), my first priority is always, "Never encourage a player to make a big mistake, even if in the process you encourage smaller ones."Most people take advice they see here, and try to apply it in a general sense, which is absolutely correct. You have to have a framework, a "way you play the hand." Every lesson you learn subtly alters that framework, and your game grows. But every hand is different, so every situations is different, so the optimal course of action must always be unique, hand to hand.But it's not convenient to have a preplotted course of action for the infinitely diverse situations one will run into during the years spent playing this game. So we take what we know, and try to suss out the situation, and come up with the right play, based on what we know.I say this, because I think I could have folded this river if I'd been there, depending on what plays I'd seen him make. But, given just this one hand history and this second hand read, I'd never encourage YOU to. Does that make sense? You're getting a good price with a pretty big hand, yet the turn probably helped him more than it helped you.In the longrun, it would be more dangerous to try making this huge fold at the point in your development right now than it would be to just call down and move on.Does that make sense? Sorry if it sounded patronizing or condescending... this is just stuff I wish people told me. Ice

[TJ_Eckleburg]

Here's the problem with tells:A person's talking and moving is entirely subjective *to themselves*, and how we interpret that is subjective to *ourselves*. That's a lot of built-in uncertainty before you even start to ask what things mean. And then, by the time you've got a chance to act on it, it's usually the turn or river and the pot is big enough that it's difficult to act on the information. That's where you should try to start weighing in the certainty of the information you have. It's easy to talk in circles, but to me, the easiest way to get out of the circles is to ask yourself empirical questions.By empirical, I mean disprovable. Ask yourself a yes or no question, answer it, and give reasons. If you run into a wall there, take the OTHER answer and give reasons."Would he play a flush draw this way?" is a better question sitting on the turn, rather than immediately asking "What is his preflop cold-calling range?" if that makes sense.They're both still important questions, but I'd get to the first much sooner than the second, while deliberating on the turn.The only way I know this is from spending hours upon hours of non-productive thinking, a.k.a. worrying or tilting.

[Abbaddabba]

If you want to be really pro, you would apply the percentages of mike caro's read reliability and come up with your answer.The fact is, that read isn't perfectly reliable. Even if it was, it's not a definite fold, because his idea of strength may be something that fits into the range that you beat once in a while.There are people that ive played with that i would fold this to, but there are not many situations that would warrant a fold here.