Posted 11 December 2005 - 09:10 PM
if you've ever seen rounders, you know the first hand of the movie. Matt Damon gets nines full of aces, Teddy KGB flps over pocket aces for aces full, and matt loses all his money. If you haven't seen the movie, Ii recomend it. Anyway while watching the movie, my friend asks me "is there any way he could have not gone broke that hand"? I wasn't sure, but after analyzing it, I think he could have saved his last 15K. Here is my analysis of the hand.Matt picks up ace nine suited, and raises. KGB, who I assume is a blind, remarks to the table "it's a position raise" and calls. Flop comes down A 9 3, with two spades. Matt thinks to himself " I want to overbet, make it look like im tryin to steal it, so i get paid off". It's a good move, and he overbets. KGB calls. Turn comes another 9, and now matts got nines full. he thinks "im puttin KGB on a flush draw, so i want a spade to fall so he can pay me off w/ my nines full". KGB checks, matt checks. neway river comes a low spade. Matt assunmes KGB just hit his flush, as KGB bets a HUGE amount (I'm not sure what it was, but i know it was a gigantic amount, about half of matt's stack"). Matt acts like hes thinking, then RERAISES ALL IN, and KGB calls. Now watching this movie, it looks like at first glance there was no way matt could have saved his money, but i think he could have. First of all, there was a small chance KGB was on the come with a flush draw. the first reason is that he called a huge bet on the flop. Matt knows KGB is an extremely good player, and its unlikely a great player is going to call on the come heads up when the pot odds are extrmeely in favor of folding. One could make the arguement for the implied odds, but i dont see how a flush draw could call this bet, especially in a cash game.Even if he did factor in implied odds, KGB stil lcouldnt have the flush draw. the reason being is that he played the hand EXACTLY LIKE A FLUSH DRAW! Someone as tricky as KGB wouldn't make his hand that obvious. Of course it looked like to Matt KGB was onthe come, with check, call, check. However, Matt should have realized that there was no way KGB would play a flush draw likethat. Finally, KGB probably didn't have the flush draw because of the way matt played the hand. Matt's play is typical of a flush draw. A semi-bluff on the flop, and a free card on the turn. Matt should have realized how much his play looked like a flush draw to KGB. He should have thought "Theres a good chance KGB thinks i have a flush draw. Therefore, when a spade came on the river, completing a hypothetical flush draw, and yet hes betting, that means that either he a.has the nut flush or b.has the nut flush beat. Realizing this and the above matt should have thought "ok if hes not on the flush draw and doenst have the flush, then hes gotta have somthing to callthe huge flop bet, and to bet the river when a spade hits" So then matt should weigh which hand KGB could have that in this situation. Basicially, the hands would be a smaller two pair off the flop, the nut flush made on theriver, or a set off the flop. Based on KGB's play, theres a reasonable chance that he has a boat, just like matt, since it isnt likely hes on the flush draw and he bet when the flush was made. There are two other boats, one of them being lower and one of them beng higher. the boat that was higher though, would be pocket aces.AT this point matt should have thought "Based on the way he played the hand, could he have aces." And the answer is absolutley yes! KGB's play is one of setting an extrmeely deep trap. Does this mean matt should have folded? NO. No way you can make that lay down. Too many hands KGB could have. He could have the nut flush, the smaller boat, or some weird bluff. However, when KGB bets a huge amount on the river, just calling would have been the better move, considering there was one posible hand that had A9 beat that KGB could have. Overall, Matt put too much weight on his read of KGB being on the come. He should have just called on the end. He was outplayed. Matt even admits to Knish later in the movie that he was "outplayed". Unfortunatley, it cost him his whole bankroll.What do you think? Am i off in some places, and if so, where? It's a really interesting hand.Dave
"I don't know how to put this, but I'm kind of a big deal"