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i only do play alongs with suited hands - aqs.


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#41 Sysvr4

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 11:33 AM

AlanBostick said:

I hold AQ, the board is AQxxx.  Two aces and two queens are accounted for.Anyone who thinks I'm beat two times out of three in this spot doesn't know how to count.
You mean there are only 4 queens and 4 aces? Whodda thunk.By this logic, we're as likely to be beat by 66, 44, 33, etc. You're not factoring in how likely the opponent is to play the hand in this manner.Btw, way to be borderline offensive in your first post to me. That'll get us off to a great start.Jeff

#42 KDawgCometh

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 12:07 PM

Sysvr4 said:

AlanBostick said:

I hold AQ, the board is AQxxx.  Two aces and two queens are accounted for.Anyone who thinks I'm beat two times out of three in this spot doesn't know how to count.
You mean there are only 4 queens and 4 aces? Whodda thunk.By this logic, we're as likely to be beat by 66, 44, 33, etc. You're not factoring in how likely the opponent is to play the hand in this manner.Btw, way to be borderline offensive in your first post to me. That'll get us off to a great start.Jeff
jeff, he is right though. Seriously, by having those cards accounted for makes it less likely and helps us in deciding on how to go about the best line of play. We have to look at the action, the villian's cold call PF gives us a very small hand range, and we can account for two of those cards in the hand range PF. On the turn, becasue we now have another queen accounted for, it makes QQ that much less likely, therefore we will have the better hand more then enough to go for the CR line there, as our villian will either be chopping with us or be beat more then he is ahead. I don't understand how you aren't seeing this. Screech did a good job of cleaning up his outs and getting the most out of his hand. You have to be aggressive when its right, and here screech did that. Check/calling the turn is leaving bets at the table here way too often, and even saying that the likelyhood of this guy having a set on the low end of the board is silly and you know it
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#43 Sysvr4

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 12:18 PM

KDawgCometh said:

I don't understand how you aren't seeing this.
He and screech may very well be right, I'm not arguing that. I'm still trying to reconcile the math in screech's last big post... if the math shows he's right, cool, I learned something.But weighting the card combos (as screech did) based on how the hand was played is critical. Just counting combos is not good enough in this case...Jeff

#44 Sysvr4

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 12:21 PM

KDawgCometh said:

You have to be aggressive when its right, and here screech did that. Check/calling the turn is leaving bets at the table here way too often,
Wait a second, where did I say check/call the turn? I said bet/call the turn. Which, btw, turned out to be a better line than the c/r suggested by some... :)Jeff

#45 TheIceman05

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 12:43 PM

screech said:

We put in 3 bets pf, so that means we have to win 3 x 9= 257sb's in the hand to make the play break-even.  That's hard to do.
Impossible, some might suggest...Good hand, screech, you fucking suckout artist.I think I admitted earlier that the b/c river line is more equitable than c/c. But I wanted to highlight it to make sure.That being said, I do NOT think we're ahead 3/4 times here (6KK vs. 2AA/QQ). I think KK can be discounted a little based on his actions earlier in the hand, and, as DannyG mentioned, we totally ignored baby-sets, which are probably more likely than we think.Anyway, this was a pretty good post, Screech. I tried to make as many outrageous claims as I could. Overall, I like the way you played it.Cheers,Ice

#46 Steppin Razor

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 01:15 PM

I stopped reading here, before the river action. I'm sure it's already been resolved, etc. but I'd like to throw out my thoughts and see how good/bad they are.[quote name='screech]FCP 3/6 (10 handed).Preflop: I'm in Hijack with A :) Q :club:. 1 foldI 3 bet PF for position' date=' trying to get the button out. And I probably have the best hand. Unfortunately the button didn't do what he was supposed to. 3 cold?? WTH does a decent player call 3 cold with? I can only guess AA, AK, KK, QQ, and [i']maybe[/i] JJ or AQs. I'm guessing AA caps, KK... well, cold calling adds deception, and he has position in case an Ace falls. I don't see him capping or folding AK. QQ is a tough hand to get away from with position and company in the pot. I don't want to hit my Queen and be screwed. JJ and AQ are marginal cold calls, but if he does it, fine by me.[quote]Flop:(4 players) 4 :D 6 :D 3 :D (13.5sb)UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, I betI think that I have to bet here. If I check and the button bets, I don't have any info about anybody's hand, and no one is going to fold. I've got overs and a couple of longshot draws, so I can stand to call a raise if there is one. The raise may also knock someone out (which it did), and I can't do that with a check or check raise.When the button raises, I'm thinking we can marginalize AK and AQ a little as a poss. holding. Now I'm thinking KK, QQ, and maybe JJ. I'm totally lost on UTG+2's hand range, which is worrisome.[quote]Turn:(3 players) Q :) (9.75BB)UTG+2 checks, I check, Button betsHere, I think I'm leading. If he has the one hand I'm beating, he's not going to bet. If I lead and he raises, I give/get the same info as if I check raise. I tell him I like that Queen, he tells me he doesn't care. It's too big a pot to fold, so even if I'm behind, I call his raise if there is one.Thank gods UTG+2 went away.With the C/R and then 3 bet, I have to think either KK or QQ. He's telling me he has a pair of Queens beat[quote]What's my plan on the river if a blank falls?What if I hit an ace or queen?[/quote]Check call a blank. If an Ace or Queen, I'm going to town. The only way an Ace beats me is if he has AA or QQ, and I just don't see not capping PF with AA. With KK, I can see trying to save the one bet if an Ace comes on the flop since there are multiple opponents, but I can't see AA cold calling.That leaves QQ winning if an Ace falls. I'll take a chance and call a raise on the end.So, am I stupid or brilliant?TIA[EDIT: Read results. Seems like I ended up in the right place, but I hope I got there the right way]

#47 mrdannyg

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Posted 12 December 2005 - 12:04 PM

screech said:

hey danny,thanks for the input.I respectfully disagree with your low pp comment.  If we have say, 66 and it's 3 bets to us at a tight table, we should fold.  Calling is a pretty significant error.Our odds of flopping a set are 7.5:1.  Given the action so far, the pot is likely to be contested 4-way, and its likely we are up agianst big hands.  We will sometimes lose even when we flop a set.  So lets say our odds of winning the hand are 9:1.We put in 3 bets pf, so that means we have to win 3 x 9= 257sb's in the hand to make the play break-even.  Assuming it doesn't get capped pf (an optimistic assumption), our opponents put in 12sb's.  This means we have to make up 15sb's postflop to make the play break even.That's hard to do.Say we flop a set, and get 3-bets in on teh flop vs 2 opponents (the other one dropped out).  That's 6sb's.  On the turn, say one opponent leads, the other calls, we raise, one calls, and one folds.  Thats another 6sbs.  Then the river goes bet-call.  Thats another 2sbs, for a total of 14sb's.There was a fair amount of action in that hand, and we still never reached the break-even point.  On average, hands will have much less action than that.  We can usually expect to make around 10sb's on average if we flop a set in this situation.  It's a losing play.
excellent analysis, and i do not doubt you are correct. i think 10 sb's is a good approximation, but i assume this gets capped pre-flop somewhat often too, so i think you (purposely) were optimistic. in a perfect scenario, we are within 1 sb of breaking even, and on average, i think we fall 3-5 sb's short. so it is a losing play.nevertheless, i think we should consider more strongly the possibility. my original point was that cold-calling there would not be a huge mistake. (i think i said significant - to that i now stand corrected) i meant to imply that players at lower limits make far worse plays than cold-calling with a baby pair there. i have stopped being surprised when a player will call any amount of bets pre-flop with any pair since it is usually at worst a small mistake (although here it is a little more than a small mistake, as you worked out) and often the correct play. frankly, i am more surprised he turned over KK than a baby set.anyways, your analysis certainly showed it is a mistake to call there. i do think in analyzing the hand, we need to more strongly consider the very real possibility that our opponents will make mistakes, and that this is a very likely mistake they'll make.daniel
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#48 AlanBostick

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Posted 12 December 2005 - 11:21 PM

mrdannyg said:

i have stopped being surprised when a player will call any amount of bets pre-flop with any pair since it is usually at worst a small mistake (although here it is a little more than a small mistake, as you worked out) and often the correct play.
Limping in with a small pair is often a money-losing proposition. Cold-calling one or more raises with a small pair is generally a huge mistake. There are even worse mistakes that weakies make -- cold-calling raises with small offsuit connectors is about twice as big. But only about twice as big.
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#49 Sysvr4

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Posted 14 December 2005 - 08:34 AM

Haven't stopped thinking about this hand yet. That's the OCD in me.Using the weighted averages (and your assumptions) in the EV calculations with your numbers of [31,22,47] I get the following:EV of bet/call: -.11EV of check/call: -.37Using my numbers of [10,20,70] I get:EV of bet/call: -.2 EV of check/call: -.4So yeah, river is a bet/call. But it's damn close. I think it's close enough that you lose .2BB in tilt if you bet/call into a set for the third time :)So I think then, the best line on this hand becomes:PF - Call or raise. This is very close and player dependent. Raising is probably a little better, but in this particular case calling may have let our villain define his hand some more, so calling does have some overlooked value.Flop - Bet/call, easyTurn - Bet/call. Do some people still think the c/r is best here? River - Bet/call.

#50 screech

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Posted 14 December 2005 - 10:31 AM

Quote

Turn - Bet/call. Do some people still think the c/r is best here?
I do. But I'm open to the possibility that it's not. I think a c/r is best because I am ahead more often than not on this turn. And there aren't many hands this villian is checking behind.




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