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i only do play alongs with suited hands - aqs.


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#21 TheIceman05

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Posted 10 December 2005 - 05:42 PM

screech said:

What's my plan on the river if a blank falls?What if I hit an ace or queen?
if a blank rolls off, I'm checking/calling. If he 3-bet for a free showdown with JJ or TT, more power to him.If he has AQs like we do (seeming more and more likely), nothing matters.I'll hate it if he shows AA or KK, but he'd be a silk-baller if he did. If a queen comes off, I think I bet here. Any reasonably decent player would check behind ANY hand that can't beat 3 queens on this river. If he raises, I just call. He has to be able to put us on a queen when we check-raise that turn. I don't know WHAT he could have that really beats us here, unless he lost his mind and called 3-cold with 66 or 22 or something. I think I check/call any card BUT a queen. On the turn he's letting us know, however improbable, that he's ahead. I'll take his word for it and eagerly anticipate showdown.Ice

#22 Sysvr4

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Posted 10 December 2005 - 05:45 PM

TheIceman05 said:

I think I check/call any card BUT a queen.
I agree with every word Ice wrote in his last post, but with this quote I doubly agree.Jeff

#23 KDawgCometh

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Posted 10 December 2005 - 06:14 PM

TheIceman05 said:

KDawgCometh said:

well, its value because of how massive the pot is and we have 7.5 outs if we are behind(I've seen plenty of donks at this limit CC with some very odd hands)
Huh?1) Based on hand ranges, I think it's pretty tough to give ourselves 7.5 outs here. I think we'd have to be up against exactly 3 pocket pairs for this to be the case. Based on action, there are too many ways our opponents are likely to have at least an ace, if not a queen. This isn't super important, though.2) We need 4 callers for this bet to be marginally valuable IF we give ourselves the full 7.5 outs. I'd say the odds of this pot not being raised by the Button or UTG+1 are significant. I think we're going to the turn 3 at least 30% of the time, if the button is a reasonable player. If all 4 players call, we make a tiny bit of money.Add this to the significant chance of Button raising, this really CAN'T be a bet for value, can it?Ice
it can also maybe clean up outs for us. We'll have to assume that the button is a vanilla player who probably plays a few too many hands and isn't aggro at the right time. For that we can give a range of AQs+, 1010+ and that's about it(maybe 99 can be thrown in there and maybe KQs). hmmm. well, screech really needs to provide us with more on this. check/calling probably is better
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#24 screech

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Posted 10 December 2005 - 06:24 PM

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hmmm. well, screech really needs to provide us with more on this. check/calling probably is better
I think he will raise with AK. Call with AQ. Raise JJ-TT.I bet hoping it would get raised. I don't know if that's good. I really UTG+1 to fold if he has AK/AQ.

#25 screech

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Posted 10 December 2005 - 06:25 PM

Jeff and Ice,why are you just check/calling the river if an ace hits?I think that's one of the worst plays.

#26 bascomeb

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Posted 10 December 2005 - 07:40 PM

I would check/call this on river unless an ace or queen falls if ace or queen does fall i would just bet the river. He has to have us on this hand. bet/call would be best if ace or queen falls IMOIf ace falls what hands can he have that beat us? He woudl've been crazy to cold call 66-22 here. So the only hands that beat us are QQ and AA on river

#27 MrNiceGuy

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Posted 10 December 2005 - 08:23 PM

screech said:

Jeff and Ice,why are you just check/calling the river if an ace hits?I think that's one of the worst plays.
I think check/call makes sense....Nothing about our play suggests that we don't have AA, KK, or QQ. So I think QQ or AA are much more likely holdings for villain than KK or AQ when he 3-bets the turn (given that he is a solid player).Very interesting hand, btw, thanks for posting it.

#28 TheIceman05

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Posted 10 December 2005 - 08:53 PM

Screech:His turn 3-bet is telling me that he's strong or stupid. You mentioned that he was a pretty solid player, so for him to 3-bet JJ here would be stupid, KK would be great. If we bet out when an ace comes and he raises, we can draw one of 3 conclusions:1) He's not that good a player2) He's got AQ, like us, and we're splitting3) Somehow, we're beaten.Betting outat an Ace is probably the right play, but I won't be happy if I get raised. At all. I'll be pissed if I miss a bet, but not nearly as pissed as I would be if I lead EVERY street and got raised by a better hand ON EVERY STREET.If you really narrow his hand range down, you come to the conclusion that he MUST have QQ, AQ, KK, AA. He could have JJ. Or a really dumb set.Some quick math yields that betting, bet/calling, is profitable if we decided he'd play this range this way. The turn play makes me think we can discount JJ a lot. The preflop 3cold call means we can discount a low set even more.After he 3-bet, I said, "**** it." Everytime an ace comes off, we probably miss like 3/4 of a bet. Maybe a little less. Ice[/b]

#29 TheIceman05

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Posted 10 December 2005 - 08:54 PM

KDawgCometh said:

it can also maybe clean up outs for us. We'll have to assume that the button is a vanilla player who probably plays a few too many hands and isn't aggro at the right time. For that we can give a range of AQs+, 1010+ and that's about it(maybe 99 can be thrown in there and maybe KQs). hmmm. well, screech really needs to provide us with more on this. check/calling probably is better
Now this is why I bet this flop. I figure we have to be behind, but I want to make sure my outs are clean in a pot this size, and I'm willingly investing an extra half-bet some of the time.Ice

#30 GamblinLeaf

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 04:18 AM

Great hand screech, thanks for posting! Here's my .02, FWIW ... not really anything that hasn't been said.Preflop: I think, in general, cold-calling always sucks. At a tight table, folding isn't a bad option but neither is 3-betting. Cold calling is just terrible.Flop: Gotta bet/call at this no-help-for-anyone flop and maintain the lead. The cold calling button scares the hell out of me but it's worth a bet if you can get him to get away from AKs here or on the turn. His raise tells us he's as strong as we think he wants us to think he is (heh, did that make sense?).Turn: This is interesting. Aren't we essentially wa/wb out of position now? If so, it's check/call.River: I think it's still wa/wb if an ace falls. Obviously we have to bet the miracle Q.My take on the turn and river might not be aggro enough overall, but there's a fine line between being aggro and chip-spewing. It just feels like one of those pots where we certainly can't get away from it, but would like to lose the minimum if we're dominated.Just my thoughts ...
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#31 screech

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 04:51 AM

Hey leaf,I agree with you that there's often a fine line between being aggressive and spewing. I cross it a lot.But here I think we have to get more than one bet in on the turn and river once the Q hits.Given my pf read, his most likely hands in order are:JJ/TTAKAQ/AA-QQKQsI think he has JJ/TT the most often because he'll raise this flop with an overpair more often than two high cards. AQ/AA-QQ are all last because he's usually capping AA-KK pf, and he will often cap the one remaining combo of QQ. AQ is less likely than AK because of card combos and the fact that he'll raise this flop more with AK than AQ, and cold call pf more with AK. He'll usually muck KQs pf, but the fact that I've been playing semi-LAG might make him think there's value in playing it.So the turn isn't really a wa/wb situation. It's true that I'm either wa or wb, but I am way ahead more often than I am way behind. I'd say something like 80/20. In a smaller pot it may be correct to go ahead and c/c since he'll release a lot of hands like JJ/TT. But given how I've played this session, and given the size of the pot, I think he'll often call down with these hands.On the river, I don't see how I can possibly check an ace. When he 3-bets the turn, he usually has AA-QQ/AQ. Based on card combos, he has KK on the turn more often than AA/QQ (3:2). If an ace hits the river, he has KK more than AA/QQ at a 3:1 ratio. Furthermore, he won't always bet his KK, but he will call with it in this large pot. I think I lose out on too much value by check/calling the river. It usually goes c/c.

#32 screech

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 04:54 AM

FCP 3/6 (10 handed).Preflop: I'm in Hijack with A :club: Q :D. 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.Flop:(4 players) 4 :D 6 :D 3 :) (13.5sb)UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, I bet, UTG+2 calls, I call.Turn:(3 players) Q :) (9.75BB)UTG+2 checks, I check, Button bets, I call.River:(2 players) A :) (15.75BB)I bet, Button calls.Final pot: 17.75BBHe shows KK and MHIG. :-) What do you guys think about buttons preflop play?

#33 Sysvr4

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 06:10 AM

screech said:

What do you guys think about buttons preflop play?
I don't hate it, actually. He had you guessing by not open-capping and he made 2 extra BB on the turn because of it. You're just a suckout artist and hit a miracle river :)Personally though, I still cap it. I don't want a 4-way pot on my KK. I'm capping it to try to knock out the UTGs...The reason I'm not betting the A on the river is because it looks like (by the turn) all of our reads are wrong. He's not 3-betting AK/JJ/TT/99 on this turn. So now we have to go back to the drawing board and suddenly his new range is:AA/KK/QQThat's it. There's NO other reasonable possbilities here. We're behind to two out of those three even when an A hits the river, so I check/call. Given how this hand played I don't think we're good 2/3 of the time when the A hits. Nh though...Jeff

#34 screech

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 07:21 AM

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I don't hate it, actually. He had you guessing by not open-capping and he made 2 extra BB on the turn because of it. You're just a suckout artist and hit a miracle river  
:club: I know. That river must have made him cry. I think he should have capped pf for value. With 3 opponents in the pot, it's no time to get cute. Exploit your equity now. I would like the call a lot better in a HU situation.

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The reason I'm not betting the A on the river is because it looks like (by the turn) all of our reads are wrong. He's not 3-betting AK/JJ/TT/99 on this turn. So now we have to go back to the drawing board and suddenly his new range is:  AA/KK/QQ  That's it. There's NO other reasonable possbilities here. We're behind to two out of those three even when an A hits the river, so I check/call. Given how this hand played I don't think we're good 2/3 of the time when the A hits.
I still think you're wrong about the river. While I agree that is range is AA-QQ, with a very remote possibitiy of AQs/KQs, I still think a bet is better.For one, if his range is AA-QQ, he has KK 75% of the time based on card combos. We may have to reduce this number a bit given his turn 3-bet is more likely to be AA/QQ than KK, but we can't discount it by much. I would guess I am ahead about 2/3 of the time here.Now look at the river from his POV. My hand is very transparent on the turn. I called his 3-bet, so pp's < QQ are out of the picture. Depending on what cards he holds, my range probably looks like:AA/KK/AQ/outside chance of KQs.If he has AA/QQ, he will obviously value bet this river. If he has KK, he will check. He's either splitting the pot with another KK, or he's now losing to AA/AQ. There's a very small chance I have KQs and he has me beat, but that chance is way to low to warrant a value bet.So essentially by checking the river, I let him play it perfectly. He will value bet his hands that beat me, and check behind the one and most likely hand I beat. If I bet, I deny him the opportunity to check behind. Sure I occassionally get raised about 1/3 of the time, but that's ok. I still make more by bet/calling than check/calling. If we take the river in isolation, bet/calling is break even:2/3 x 1BB - 1/3 x 2BB = 0Check/calling has a negative expectation:1/3 x -1BB = -1/3BBIn order for bet/call to equal check/call, he would have to have a pair of kings 50% of the time and a set 50% of the time.

#35 Sysvr4

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 07:43 AM

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I still think you're wrong about the river.
There's a shocker :club:

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For one, if his range is AA-QQ, he has KK 75% of the time based on card combos.
Based on card combos? Sure. Based on how he played the turn? Not remotely. QQ is by far the front runner on that turn, despite the fact that it would be the case Q. You have to keep in mind that you 3-bet PF and then c/r the turn, signalling you just made a BIG hand on the turn. When he 3-bets the turn, he's telling you he can beat your big hand, and that tells me QQ. KK is an outside chance, but I don't give it anywhere near 50%. Let's face it, this hand is so noteworthy because noone plays KK like this!

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We may have to reduce this number a bit given his turn 3-bet is more likely to be AA/QQ than KK, but we can't discount it by much.  I would guess I am ahead about 2/3 of the time here.
Why? I know that more than 75% of my opponents do not play KK this way. I actually discount AA more than KK because he didn't cap PF. I think based on how he played it QQ is by far the most likely. I understand the card combos, but rare as it may be, sets with the case card do happen.

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Sure I occassionally get raised about 1/3 of the time, but that's ok.  I still make more by bet/calling than check/calling.
That's just it, I think (again, based on how the hand played) you get raised more than 1/3 of the time. You've implicitly admitted that it's unlikely he has KK by even posting this hand and garnering the discussion. And that's the only hand you beat on the river. It's, at best, a break even bet based on how this particular hand played.

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2/3 x 1BB - 1/3 x 2BB = 0Check/calling has a negative expectation:1/3 x -1BB = -1/3BBIn order for bet/call to equal check/call, he would have to have a pair of kings 50% of the time and a set 50% of the time.
Bet/call: You think you get raised only 1/3 of the time? Again, this is where we disagree. I think you have those numbers reversed.Check/call: You don't take into consideration the times where he value bets his KK on the river (even with the Ace) and you win that bet, too. I posit that this occurs approximately 1/3 of the time, making the expectation 0.Jeff

#36 screech

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 08:25 AM

Once again our disagreement is based on what we think of our opponents. There's little I can do to convince you otherwise and vice versa.I will make one last ditch attempt however. :-)

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You have to keep in mind that you 3-bet PF and then c/r the turn, signalling you just made a BIG hand on the turn.
I did make a BIG hand on the turn!You have to account for what my opponent thinks of me. He's seen me play very aggressively. My range of hands to c/r that turn is fairly wide. I'm sure he's thinking something along the lines of AA-QQ,AQ, and KQs.Also, I'm sure he discounts the likelyhood of AA-QQ after I just call his flop 3-bet. Most of the time, I have a pair of queens. Therefore, being a solid player, he knows he should 3-bet with AA, KK, and QQ. But he will be a bit more inclined to 3-bet AA/QQ than KK, but not by much.

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When he 3-bets the turn, he's telling you he can beat your big hand, and that tells me QQ. KK is an outside chance, but I don't give it anywhere near 50%. Let's face it, this hand is so noteworthy because noone plays KK like this!
I think this is where the disagreement comes into play. I think he's a bit less likely to play KK this way on the turn than QQ and AA.To break it down % wise, I think he plays [AA,KK,QQ] on the turn[35,25,40]PF might look something like [30,30,40]Then for the whole hand up to the turn [31,22,47]Multiplying these numbers by the card frequencies and we get:AA ~ 15%KK ~ 63%QQ ~ 22%So our bet given these estimates still has value.To find the break even point, KK = 50% (from earlier EV river calculations).Now (p x 6/8)/[(1 - p) x 1/8 + p x 6/8] = 50%Solving for p we get, p = 14.3%.The only important number is that if you think he plays KK this way 14.3% of the time, and AA/QQ 85.7%, then betting or check/calling this river have the same value. So now the numbers are here for you to make your decision. I'm not going to try and sway anyone one way or the other, because everyone has different opinions on how their opponents play. All you have to do is assign a probability to how often he plays KK vs AA/QQ. If it's below 10%, then you think the river is a check/call. If it's above 10%, than you think the river is a bet/call.

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Check/call: You don't take into consideration the times where he value bets his KK on the river (even with the Ace) and you win that bet, too. I posit that this occurs approximately 1/3 of the time, making the expectation 0.
I don't think he ever value bets KK. This was a good player who should put me on a range. If he bets KK here, he may also raise the river with a hand I beat, destroying the whole risk 2 to win 1 thing.Another point worth mentioning is I don't have to call his river raise. The only reason I would is because I think there's a better than 1/20 chance that I have the best hand. If we factor this small chance into when I call, it pretty much cancels out the small fraction of the time he value bets his king on the river.

#37 mrdannyg

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 10:01 AM

extremely interesting hand. i just got here but really enjoyed reading so much amazing analysis.the only thing i can add is that i think the river is an easy bet/call.he is checking behind with several hands here like 10-10, JJ, QK, KK and only raising with a few, like QQ and AQ. with your betting, you could easily have QQ or AA, so he might be tempted to only call with a low set on the flop.i should also add that i don't think low pocket pairs were heavily enough considered. in limit games, it would not be a big mistake to call any pocket pair to any amount of raises. in a situation like that where you clearly have enormous implied odds, i don't think cold-calling pocket 2's on the button would be that big of a mistake (or a mistake at all, arguably). his flop raise may make this slightly less likely, but his turn reraise adds to the possibility, but i think earlier in the hand this should've been a stronger consideration.and fwiw, i don't play KK that way, but i may play AA that way. if i have a strong feeling that the original raiser will cap it (which he should with most hands, since he is getting value almost no matter what he has in a 4-way pot against a LAG and two cold-callers) than I will cold-call AA here and hope to pick up the betting lead on the flop and also disguise my hand. i would ONLY do this with AA.Daniel
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#38 AlanBostick

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 10:22 AM

Sysvr4 said:

The reason I'm not betting the A on the river is because it looks like (by the turn) all of our reads are wrong.  He's not 3-betting AK/JJ/TT/99 on this turn.  So now we have to go back to the drawing board and suddenly his new range is:AA/KK/QQThat's it.  There's NO other reasonable possbilities here.  We're behind to two out of those three even when an A hits the river, so I check/call.  Given how this hand played I don't think we're good 2/3 of the time when the A hits.
I hold AQ, the board is AQxxx. Two aces and two queens are accounted for.Anyone who thinks I'm beat two times out of three in this spot doesn't know how to count.There is only one possible AA and only one possible QQ, and six possible KKs. If the range I put my opponent on is AA-KK, then on this river I 'm a 3:1 favorite to have the best hand.
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#39 AlanBostick

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 10:32 AM

And if we're reevaluating the range of our opponent's hand on the turn, I have an ace and a queen, and there's a queen on the board. There are three ways our opponent has AA and one for QQ, and six for KK.Worst case is that we're a 3:2 favorite to win if an ace falls on the river.
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#40 screech

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Posted 11 December 2005 - 10:41 AM

hey danny,thanks for the input.I respectfully disagree with your low pp comment. If we have say, 66 and it's 3 bets to us at a tight table, we should fold. Calling is a pretty significant error.Our odds of flopping a set are 7.5:1. Given the action so far, the pot is likely to be contested 4-way, and its likely we are up agianst big hands. We will sometimes lose even when we flop a set. So lets say our odds of winning the hand are 9:1.We put in 3 bets pf, so that means we have to win 3 x 9= 257sb's in the hand to make the play break-even. Assuming it doesn't get capped pf (an optimistic assumption), our opponents put in 12sb's. This means we have to make up 15sb's postflop to make the play break even.That's hard to do.Say we flop a set, and get 3-bets in on teh flop vs 2 opponents (the other one dropped out). That's 6sb's. On the turn, say one opponent leads, the other calls, we raise, one calls, and one folds. Thats another 6sbs. Then the river goes bet-call. Thats another 2sbs, for a total of 14sb's.There was a fair amount of action in that hand, and we still never reached the break-even point. On average, hands will have much less action than that. We can usually expect to make around 10sb's on average if we flop a set in this situation. It's a losing play.




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