5 replies to this topic

[Actuary]

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is CO with Q:heart:, Q:club:. UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.Flop: (17 SB) K:club:, 8:diamond:, 2:spade: (4 players)SB checks, BB betsUTG: 62/0/0.2 only 20 handsBB lag, new

[mrdannyg]

Actuary said:

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is CO with Q:heart:, Q:club:.    UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.Flop: (17 SB) K:club:, 8:diamond:, 2:spade: (4 players)SB checks, BB betsUTG: 62/0/0.2    only 20 handsBB lag, new

i assume UTG=UTG+1.if that is the case, i think we can safely fold here. the three-bet from BB could be ahead of us, although he could also have 10-10, JJ here so we don't have enough information to fold just because of him.0.2 AF, even on 62% VPIP is super-low though. normally i'd guess he was betting a draw if he bets so rarely, but it is actually impossible to have even a gutshot draw here. so we know he hardly ever bets, and he is raising here. and we know bb could easily be ahead of us.there's nothing to chase, with only a two-outer and not even any backdoor draws. we don't have close the odds to chase that, so that's not an issue.the other alternative is cold-calling, then judge by bb's future action whether he has us beat, and perhaps dump it on the turn. the pot is so big, that might be the best EV move, but i just hate cold-calling bets when i'm almost certainly behind.i think in terms of EV, the best play might be either to cold-call or 3-bet (whichever gives you the most information), and then dump it if bb continues to be aggressive. but that is only due to the huge pot size, and i think you are behind here almost all the time, and could easily justify dumping it.daniel

[screech]

Not me.

[pokerplayer24]

chase a 2 outer getting 11:1 and not closing the action....no thanks.

[Emptyeye]

Yeah, even with only 20 hands, with an AF that low, you're clearly behind here.Pretty easy fold as far as I'm concerned.

[Actuary]

sometimes I overestimate how many bets I'll win if I hit on the turn. With this high of a Pair, being ahead now is possible. THe opponet's nature lead me to think otherwise. It's hard to think of it as realy needing to earn 44sb's by calling 2 bets here (when I'm behind). I want to just think of it as 22+1 more. lol.next time remind me not to look at the turn card after I fold though :cry: BB bet/folded the turn and I never saw the showdown.UTG+1 continues to be a passive straight forward player, so a set/two pair was quite possible. I doubt he was making that play with MP+BDFD+over card type hand