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#41 Hobbes

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 07:52 AM

DrZebra said:

I'm leaving work, so this is the last thing I will say about this today.I've answered everything you've asked about my opinions.You say you don't understand the play but you offer no alternative.Should he check/fold the flop, turn, should he have folded to the raise preflop with KJ suited when it was just more than a min-raise?  Should he check/raise all in with a gutshot?  What do you think?This table was full of competent players with very short stacks.  I thought it was interesting and I would share it.
You've answered the questions in a way that offers no insight. If you ask me what are the odds of kings cracking aces pre-flop and I said "bananas," I would have answered your question, but it would still be meaningless.I said check/fold the turn because you are drawing dead most of the time and drawing almost dead the rest. That makes you a lot worse than 10 to 1 odds against, it's at least 25:1 in my opinion. I said you'd be better off folding and going all in blind the next hand if you felt you had to get your money in. I also said that if you felt pot committed on the turn, then you should check-raise all in because it might get UTG off the hand and it might get you a free river card. At worse you have all your money in when you would be doing that anyway.Your answer was that a push or even a check-raise push would not get UTG off the hand, but you have never said why. I was intrigued by the whole Gigabet analysis stuff, but I haven't seen anything here that would change my strategy.

#42 DrZebra

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 10:56 AM

Hobbes said:

You've answered the questions in a way that offers no insight. If you ask me what are the odds of kings cracking aces pre-flop and I said "bananas," I would have answered your question, but it would still be meaningless.
good one

Hobbes said:

I said check/fold the turn because you are drawing dead most of the time and drawing almost dead the rest.
you incorrectly think either:a) guy raises in EP pf with 10-4 or B) guy clearly has a boat or flush because he raised pf.

Hobbes said:

I also said that if you felt pot committed on the turn...
pot commitment is a farce, particularly in tournament play.

Hobbes said:

Your answer was that a push or even a check-raise push would not get UTG off the hand, but you have never said why.
Because of the immediate cash equity UTG+1 gains by calling for the possible negative equity he may perceive (but may not have (as we as omniscient observers know--he is ahead)).No one cares if your tournament play doesn't change.

#43 copernicus

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 11:02 AM

"pot commitment is a farce, particularly in tournament play. "'splain please, Lucy?

#44 Scott3705

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 11:03 AM

copernicus said:

"pot commitment is a farce, particularly in tournament play. "'splain please, Lucy?
Please kill this thread, my IQ keeps going down everytime i open it, but it's too entertaining not to watch.

#45 Hobbes

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 11:15 AM

DrZebra said:

Hobbes said:

I said check/fold the turn because you are drawing dead most of the time and drawing almost dead the rest.
you incorrectly think either:a) guy raises in EP pf with 10-4 or B) guy clearly has a boat or flush because he raised pf.No one cares if your tournament play doesn't change.
a) No, I never put him on 10-4. Tens is a possibility though, no?B) I don't put him on a flush just because he raised pf. He raised pf, called the flop, and raised the turn. Isn't AK, AQ, or AT the worst hand he would do all of this with? In that case, you're either 6.8% or 9.1%. You still have to consider the flush and boat possibilities and that makes your odds worse.And interestingly enough, I don't care if no one cares. I was just saying you haven't convinced me that this was some great play.

#46 Hobbes

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 11:17 AM

Scott3705 said:

copernicus said:

"pot commitment is a farce, particularly in tournament play. "'splain please, Lucy?
Please kill this thread, my IQ keeps going down everytime i open it, but it's too entertaining not to watch.
I just can't seem to extricate myself from it...

#47 Snowman

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 11:20 AM

I'm gonna give it a final shot.The best possible situation BB can expect is to be up against Ax without a heart. (That's stretching it, especially if we look at this situation generally)Then he's got 4 outs with one card to come, which means he's got 10.5:1 in odds to hit it.If we include flushes, boats and flush draws this number will in effect be a lot worse.So let me ask you this: When should you *fold* a hand if you won't fold this one?I freely admit that I'm far from a world class player, but this whole hand looks very fishy to me.
Calvin: Do you believe in the devil? You know, a supreme evil being dedicated to the tempation, corruption, and destruction of man?

Hobbes: I'm not sure man needs the help.

Calvin: You just can't talk to animals about these things.

#48 DrZebra

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 11:41 AM

If you check/fold the turn you are left with 5 BB's.If you check and the UTG+1 moves in you fold and are left with 5 BB's.If you bet 3k and are called again, then miss/fold you are left with 4BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised all in you fold and are left with 4 BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised 6k, you call miss/fold you are left with 2BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet allin you are called/miss you are left with zero BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit you have 16 BB'sBoth of the best choices include betting 3k. At this stage in the tourney what is the potential/immediate cash loss from 5BB's to 2BB's?THE END

#49 Scott3705

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 11:51 AM

DrZebra said:

If you check/fold the turn you are left with 5 BB's.If you check and the UTG+1 moves in you fold and are left with 5 BB's.If you bet 3k and are called again, then miss/fold you are left with 4BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised all in you fold and are left with 4 BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised 6k, you call miss/fold you are left with 2BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet allin you are called/miss you are left with zero BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit you have 16 BB'sBoth of the best choices include betting 3k. At this stage in the tourney what is the potential/immediate cash loss from 5BB's to 2BB's?THE END
These are your choicesThe mistakes are Preflop and the flop. why not look to double up preflop when you could be way ahead or atleast 30% to win if you are ready to try to double up with less than 10%? Fold preflop, push preflop, or stop and go.DON'T WRITE IN CAPS.

#50 copernicus

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 11:52 AM

DrZebra said:

If you check/fold the turn you are left with 5 BB's.If you check and the UTG+1 moves in you fold and are left with 5 BB's.If you bet 3k and are called again, then miss/fold you are left with 4BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised all in you fold and are left with 4 BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised 6k, you call miss/fold you are left with 2BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet allin you are called/miss you are left with zero BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit you have 16 BB'sBoth of the best choices include betting 3k. At this stage in the tourney what is the potential/immediate cash loss from 5BB's to 2BB's?THE END
They are the best results, not the best choices. Apply the low probability of actually winning the hand to the prize equity calculation based on the chip stacks and I cant believe this is a good play.

#51 Hobbes

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 11:56 AM

DrZebra said:

If you check/fold the turn you are left with 5 BB's.If you check and the UTG+1 moves in you fold and are left with 5 BB's.If you bet 3k and are called again, then miss/fold you are left with 4BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised all in you fold and are left with 4 BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised 6k, you call miss/fold you are left with 2BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet allin you are called/miss you are left with zero BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit you have 16 BB'sBoth of the best choices include betting 3k. At this stage in the tourney what is the potential/immediate cash loss from 5BB's to 2BB's?THE END
Might as well add the bet/called/hit/bet/lose/zero BB's option...

#52 DrZebra

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 11:56 AM

copernicus said:

They are the best results, not the best choices.
welcome to the thread.Being the short stack out of seven and being very much the short stack out of seven is not too different in immediate cash equity already ITM in a MTT. Risking those 3BB's for the chance to have potential cash equity seems like an interesting possibly good play.

#53 Scott3705

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 01:17 PM

DrZebra said:

Being the short stack out of seven and being very much the short stack out of seven is not too different in immediate cash equity already ITM in a MTT. Risking those 3BB's for the chance to have potential cash equity seems like an interesting possibly good play.
Why is this line better than anything that Hobbes and I have given?

#54 DrZebra

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 01:21 PM

BECAUSE

DrZebra said:

If you check/fold the turn you are left with 5 BB's.If you check and the UTG+1 moves in you fold and are left with 5 BB's.If you bet 3k and are called again, then miss/fold you are left with 4BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised all in you fold and are left with 4 BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised 6k, you call miss/fold you are left with 2BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet allin you are called/miss you are left with zero BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit you have 16 BB'sBoth of the best choices include betting 3k. At this stage in the tourney what is the potential/immediate cash loss from 5BB's to 2BB's?THE END


#55 Scott3705

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 01:25 PM

DrZebra said:

BECAUSE

DrZebra said:

If you check/fold the turn you are left with 5 BB's.If you check and the UTG+1 moves in you fold and are left with 5 BB's.If you bet 3k and are called again, then miss/fold you are left with 4BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised all in you fold and are left with 4 BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised 6k, you call miss/fold you are left with 2BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet allin you are called/miss you are left with zero BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit you have 16 BB'sBoth of the best choices include betting 3k. At this stage in the tourney what is the potential/immediate cash loss from 5BB's to 2BB's?THE END
Yeah, i'm gonna need an answer on that.

#56 DrZebra

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 01:27 PM

Scott3705 said:

DrZebra said:

BECAUSEIf you check/fold the turn you are left with 5 BB's.If you check and the UTG+1 moves in you fold and are left with 5 BB's.If you bet 3k and are called again, then miss/fold you are left with 4BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised all in you fold and are left with 4 BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised 6k, you call miss/fold you are left with 2BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet allin you are called/miss you are left with zero BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit you have 16 BB's.Both of the best choices include betting 3k. At this stage in the tourney what is the potential/immediate cash loss from 5BB's to 2BB's?THE END
Yeah, i'm gonna need an answer on that.
You seem prefer the plays in bold. I do not.

#57 Scott3705

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 02:00 PM

DrZebra said:

Scott3705 said:

DrZebra said:

BECAUSEIf you check/fold the turn you are left with 5 BB's.If you check and the UTG+1 moves in you fold and are left with 5 BB's.If you bet 3k and are called again, then miss/fold you are left with 4BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised all in you fold and are left with 4 BB's.If you bet 3k and are raised 6k, you call miss/fold you are left with 2BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit/bet you have 16BB's.If you bet allin you are called/miss you are left with zero BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit you have 16 BB's.Both of the best choices include betting 3k.  At this stage in the tourney what is the potential/immediate cash loss  from 5BB's to 2BB's?THE END
Yeah, i'm gonna need an answer on that.
You seem prefer the plays in bold. I do not.
No. I like these choicesFold we have 7.5 BB's leftReraise preflop: folded: we have 8.5 BB's left Called: we win: we have 17 BB's left We lose: we're out which is just as good as 2 BB's which you think is just as good as 5 BB's.I'm not letting this get to the turn if this is where i'm making my stand. As i said early, the mistakes are made on the flop and preflop. the turn is uninteresting as you are virtually dead in the water for the rest of the tournament after you have put in these two horrendous min bets.

#58 DrZebra

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 02:40 PM

Quote

Fold we have 7.5 BB's left
You fold KJ suited from the BB for just over a min-raise?

Quote

Reraise preflop: folded: we have 8.5 BB's left                              Called: we win: we have 17 BB's left We lose: we're out
This is:If you bet allin you are called/miss you are left with zero BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit you have 16 BB's.

Quote

I'm not letting this get to the turn if this is where i'm making my stand.
If your view on tournament play includes your emboldened statement above, you need more help than I can provide you.

#59 Scott3705

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 02:56 PM

DrZebra said:

Quote

Fold we have 7.5 BB's left
You fold KJ suited from the BB for just over a min-raise?

Quote

Reraise preflop: folded: we have 8.5 BB's left                              Called: we win: we have 17 BB's left We lose: we're out
This is:If you bet allin you are called/miss you are left with zero BB's.-------------------------------------------------------->hit you have 16 BB's.

Quote

I'm not letting this get to the turn if this is where i'm making my stand.
If your view on tournament play includes your emboldened statement above, you need more help than I can provide you.
If your trying to make an insult you need to use the word overly in front of emboldened. it's not an insult without it.Second, i'm moving preflop or on the flop because i have more fold equity as i have more BB's. On a serious note: Either you have no idea what you're arguing anymore, or if you do, you have not communicated it in an effective manner, nor have you fully answered any of the legitimate questions brought up by any of the posters in this thread. You have this fuzzy, vague idea of how this play was the right and intelligent play. I'm not arguing the turn. I'm arguing preflop and the flop. to make this thread more coherent, please answer the following questions straightforwardly: 1. Why is min raising here a good idea if we're fairly sure it won't make anyone fold? 2. Why is moving all in preflop or stopping and going a bad play? 3. if these are bad plays, why is folding not correct?

#60 DrZebra

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 02:58 PM

I've addressed those concerns multiple times. I'm done with this thread.




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