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#21 DrZebra

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 03:33 PM

shpaget said:

The fact is, more than 9 times out of 10 he loses this hand and finishes in 7th place.  
He won't be immediately out, but he'll be the short stack. I doubt he miscalculated his implied odds, but I guess it's possible this is a crying call.If he loses he's got just over 2 BB's left after previously having had 8.At the time of the call though he had 4!If he wins, he's got over 16 BB's left.Having been a smaller stack in the first place (ending the hand with 4 BB's if no call), how much has he lost in potential by virtually putting himself out of the tournament versus the possibility of potential gain by being 2nd in chips?You're right it's very hard to measure, but how could any of us not make the call if you are almost guaranteed 7th anyway? See how interesting? Despite the miniscule odds of hitting (10:1 against) it is a clear call!ie, what's the difference at this stage in the tourney between 2 and 4 BB's?

#22 Davin

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 03:45 PM

DrZebra said:

shpaget said:

The fact is, more than 9 times out of 10 he loses this hand and finishes in 7th place.  
He won't be immediately out, but he'll be the short stack. I doubt he miscalculated his implied odds, but I guess it's possible this is a crying call.If he loses he's got just over 2 BB's left after previously having had 8.At the time of the call though he had 4!If he wins, he's got over 16 BB's left.Having been a smaller stack in the first place (ending the hand with 4 BB's if no call), how much has he lost in potential by virtually putting himself out of the tournament versus the possibility of potential gain by being 2nd in chips?You're right it's very hard to measure, but how could any of us not make the call if you are almost guaranteed 7th anyway? See how interesting? Despite the miniscule odds of hitting (10:1 against) it is a clear call!ie, what's the difference at this stage in the tourney between 2 and 4 BB's?
that makes a lot of sense... good analysis zebra

#23 Scott3705

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 03:55 PM

DrZebra said:

 He won't be immediately out, but he'll be the short stack.  I doubt he miscalculated his implied odds, but I guess it's possible this is a crying call.If he loses he's got just over 2 BB's left after previously having had 8.At the time of the call though he had 4!If he wins, he's got over 16 BB's left.Having been a smaller stack in the first place (ending the hand with 4 BB's if no call), how much has he lost in potential by virtually putting himself out of the tournament versus the possibility of potential gain by being 2nd in chips?You're right it's very hard to measure, but how could any of us not make the call if you are almost guaranteed 7th anyway?  See how interesting?  Despite the miniscule odds of hitting (10:1 against) it is a clear call!ie, what's the difference at this stage in the tourney between 2 and 4 BB's?
Definately not debating the turn call. Flop and Preflop are all wrong though. He's pot committed after his turn bet. This is eitehr fold or push. What's he doing trying to outplay this guy postflop with min bets? (Disclaimer preflop isn't wrong if he moves in on floppped rag bored like this)

#24 DrZebra

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 04:12 PM

Scott3705 said:

What's he doing trying to outplay this guy postflop with min bets?  (Disclaimer preflop isn't wrong if he moves in on floppped rag bored like this)
Oh my god, dude, preflop and flop are standard. It would be incorrect for him to move in at any point in this hand. He is not thinking "time to try to double up" he is clearly an experienced tournament player. If he moves in on that ragged flop it's instacall by UTG+1. Think about why.The only interesting street in this hand is the turn.

#25 Scott3705

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 04:17 PM

DrZebra said:

Oh my god, dude, preflop and flop are standard.  It would be incorrect for him to move in at any point in this hand.  He is not thinking "time to try to double up"  he is clearly an experienced tournament player.  If he moves in on that ragged flop it's instacall by UTG+1.  Think about why.The only interesting street in this hand is the turn.
they are not standard. I never find min betting standard. What's it accomplish?

#26 Scott3705

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 04:20 PM

DrZebra said:

Oh my god, dude, preflop and flop are standard.  It would be incorrect for him to move in at any point in this hand.  He is not thinking "time to try to double up"  he is clearly an experienced tournament player.  If he moves in on that ragged flop it's instacall by UTG+1.  Think about why.The only interesting street in this hand is the turn.
what's the buy in for this tourney, because I'm guessin it was a high level game by the way you are admiring this play. (And because you say it's an instant call if he pulls a stop and go. Not an instant call from lower buy in tourneys.)

#27 Hobbes

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 04:23 PM

DrZebra said:

Scott3705 said:

What's he doing trying to outplay this guy postflop with min bets?  (Disclaimer preflop isn't wrong if he moves in on floppped rag bored like this)
Oh my god, dude, preflop and flop are standard. It would be incorrect for him to move in at any point in this hand. He is not thinking "time to try to double up" he is clearly an experienced tournament player. If he moves in on that ragged flop it's instacall by UTG+1. Think about why.The only interesting street in this hand is the turn.
I don't understand how the flop play is standard. With that board and with that pot, what is UTG laying down to a $3k bet? BB has accomplished nothing but put more money into a pot in a hand in which he is clearly behind.

#28 Scott3705

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 04:27 PM

Hobbes said:

 I don't understand how the flop play is standard.  With that board and with that pot, what is UTG laying down to a $3k bet?  BB has accomplished nothing but put more money into a pot in a hand in which he is clearly behind.
It's standard cause the OP said

DrZebra said:

Oh my god, dude,
before he said it was standard.

#29 DrZebra

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 04:39 PM

I'll play in any tournament you play in if when you call a raise preflop you check fold every flop you miss.

#30 Scott3705

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 04:41 PM

DrZebra said:

I'll play in any tournament you play in if when you call a raise preflop you check fold every flop you miss.
Zebra, IYO, why are we in this pot in the first place?

#31 Hobbes

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 04:48 PM

DrZebra said:

I'll play in any tournament you play in if when you call a raise preflop you check fold every flop you miss.
I don't remember anyone saying check-fold was the right play on the flop. The discussion was whether minimum betting the flop was the right play and if it is, why? You said he was stealing or testing the waters. But he only bet $3k into a $15.5k pot with a flush draw board. So what has he learned by this flop bet? Does UTG have a pocket pair? Flush draw? Over cards? Did he flop a monster?Then the flush gets there. And again the BB bets the minimum. UTG is only laying down here if he's been playing with rags and has no hand, no draw, which seems highly unlikely given the way the hand has been played.I don't understand why this is standard play and you haven't explained it yet.

#32 DrZebra

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 04:50 PM

I guess this guy is defending his BB while shortstacked.After the raggedy flop, if he checks he will surely have to fold to a bet, so the min-bet serves to block as well as stab. I personally might think about check-folding the turn once the min-bet is called on the flop. I don't know if this guy thought there was fold equity in betting or if he had a read that his opponent has come over the top with nothing in the past. Somehow he's still in the pot and the call of the raise really sparked my interest because it seems like such a blunder.Lately I've been thinking a lot more about short term blunders that make sense in cash equity. (Like we've described here in which this guy is faced with "bad" or "really bad" situations but the "really bad" situation may put him in a strong situation 1 in 11 times.)

#33 DrZebra

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 04:54 PM

I guess to address what you're asking Hobbes, maybe this guy is again block/stabbing the turn because he wants a showdown.We vaguely established that there is not much difference between being in 7th in chipstack with 2 or 4 BB's but what about 5? Is this just as bad? If there is ANY fold equity and we establish 4BB's to be equally bad to 5BB's, how can we not bet the turn?

#34 Hobbes

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 05:03 PM

DrZebra said:

I guess to address what you're asking Hobbes, maybe this guy is again block/stabbing the turn because he wants a showdown.We vaguely established that there is not much difference between being in 7th in chipstack with 2 or 4 BB's but what about 5? Is this just as bad? If there is ANY fold equity and we establish 4BB's to be equally bad to 5BB's, how can we not bet the turn?
But he shouldn't; he's got King high. The only hand he wants to showdown is when he hits his miracle non-heart Queen. Maybe a check-raise on the turn is his best option if he can't fold. If UTG checks behind him, he gets a free card for his miracle. If UTG value bets his Ace, maybe an all in raise can get him to fold. If UTG pushes all in, then he's at the same spot he was with the minimum bet on the turn, but at least he gave himself some positive options before that.

#35 DrZebra

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 05:09 PM

DrZebra said:

We vaguely established that there is not much difference between being in 7th in chipstack with 2 or 4 BB's but what about 5? Is this just as bad? If there is ANY fold equity and we establish 4BB's to be equally bad to 5BB's, how can we not bet the turn?
If he checks the turn and UTG+1 pushes, BB has to fold.If he pushes (check/raise or not) he gets called.If there is ANY fold equity, betting 3K is worth it because 5BB's is just as last place as 4.

#36 Hobbes

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 05:16 PM

DrZebra said:

DrZebra said:

We vaguely established that there is not much difference between being in 7th in chipstack with 2 or 4 BB's but what about 5? Is this just as bad? If there is ANY fold equity and we establish 4BB's to be equally bad to 5BB's, how can we not bet the turn?
If he checks the turn and UTG+1 pushes, BB has to fold.If he pushes (check/raise or not) he gets called.If there is ANY fold equity, betting 3K is worth it because 5BB's is just as last place as 4.
Maybe I'm missing the point. If he's never folding to a check raise push when the flush gets there, how is he ever folding to a 1/7 pot sized bet?

#37 DrZebra

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 05:36 PM

Hobbes said:

If he's never folding to a check raise push when the flush gets there, how is he ever folding to a 1/7 pot sized bet?
The price of being wrong about fold equity with a push is the tournament.The price of being wrong about fold equity with a min-bet is a BB.

#38 Hobbes

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 05:49 PM

DrZebra said:

Hobbes said:

If he's never folding to a check raise push when the flush gets there, how is he ever folding to a 1/7 pot sized bet?
The price of being wrong about fold equity with a push is the tournament.The price of being wrong about fold equity with a min-bet is a BB.
But that's always the case when choosing your bet amount. Maybe the light bulb will go on at some point for me, but I don't see any argument for the way this hand was played.

#39 DrZebra

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 06:03 PM

I'm leaving work, so this is the last thing I will say about this today.I've answered everything you've asked about my opinions.You say you don't understand the play but you offer no alternative.Should he check/fold the flop, turn, should he have folded to the raise preflop with KJ suited when it was just more than a min-raise? Should he check/raise all in with a gutshot? What do you think?This table was full of competent players with very short stacks. I thought it was interesting and I would share it.

#40 Scott3705

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 06:27 PM

Hobbes said:

But that's always the case when choosing your bet amount. Maybe the light bulb will go on at some point for me, but I don't see any argument for the way this hand was played.
I doubt the light bulb is going to go on for you. it's a retarded hand and Zebra imagined something interesting about it. Min raising is pointless. Zebra argues it has fold equity but you and I both know it has none that either raising preflop or stopping and going doesn't have (there's your alternatives Zebra which are the right altertantives in this case if you don't want to fold preflop or check/call). Competent players do not bet 1/7th of the pot with nothing. I don't care if you tell me that this was a table of phil helmuth and Daniel Negreanu playing. It was a brain fart on the part of BB if this were the case. The only thing interesting about this hand is that you believe that there is something interesting about it. A guy made a bad play and got to the point that he would not be able to come back in the tournament without risking the minimal amount of BB's he had left. In eseence pot sticking him.




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