standard deviation

[Luvdapoka 0]

I have a question on Std Dev--here are my stats from poker analyst on cardplayer. I mostly play $6/12 limit hold em at a local casino with some $3/6 mixed in (all info is year to date): Cash game count: 83 Total winnings: $4,559.00 Total Hours: 357h 15mAvg per Hr: $12.76Wins: 45Losses: 38Std Dev (amount): $255.18Largest loss in one session: $360Largest gain in one session: $750I tend to buy in the game with $120-$160, I'm a "recreational" player there to make money.I understand std dev as far as the smaller the # the better, but with them giving it in a $ amount, what barometer should I use? Is the $255 to high, average...?? Also, is one big bet an hour a good average? Any other information or advice would be appreciated. Thanks.

[DrZebra 0]

If this is at Lucky Chances, I think you should be crushing the game a little more.

[Luvdapoka 0]

It's at Golden West in Bakersfield. That's kind of my question, should the std dev be lower, or does it really matter. Should I have a higher per hour rate like 2 big bets, is that average?

[DrZebra 0]

Clearly zero BB per hour is average. If it were two, you'd be down a bunch of money. In fact, it's probably closer to -1BB/hr given the rake. (at 6/12)That said, the std dev does look high, but that might have nothing to do with you (for instance is this a loose passive game?) if you've been able to withstand the swings consistently ahead, then great job. that's all. keep doing well.

[akishore 0]

standard deviation doesn't really matter.you're beating the game for roughly 1 BB/hr, and if you assume you can fit 100 hands in about 3 hours, you're beating the game for 3 BB/100, which is good.your standard deviation is roughly 20 BB/hr, which translates to about 60 BB/100. this is astronomically high (the norm for online players tends to be < 20 BB/100), but this is understandable due to the fact that casino games tend to be way wilder and loose/aggressive.a lot of players like to maximize CV (EV divided by SD), but that's really not a big deal. all it does is make a winning session more likely, but as we know, a session is trivial.as long as you're focusing on maximizing your EV at all times, don't worry about your SD.aseem

[Luvdapoka 0]

I apprectiate the input! The game changes a lot but it usually is fairly loose.

[Actuary 3]

you buy in for so little.Why?

[Luvdapoka 0]

That's usually all I need, I realise it is lower than normal, most people buy in for a rack ($200), I tend to play tighter than most of the people at the table. I've dipped into my "poker bankroll" lately to pay for upgrades around the house. My wife found out how much I'd gotten it up to, few too many beers that night. I'm not exercising proper br mngt I know, but like I said in op, this isn't my profession so at times my br is a little low.

[AlanBostick 0]

I have a question on Std Dev--here are my stats from poker analyst on cardplayer.  I mostly play $6/12 limit hold em at a local casino with some $3/6 mixed in (all info is year to date):  Cash game count:  83 Total winnings:  $4,559.00  Total Hours:  357h 15mAvg per Hr:  $12.76Wins:  45Losses:  38Std Dev (amount):  $255.18Largest loss in one session:  $360Largest gain in one session:  $750I tend to buy in the game with $120-$160, I'm a "recreational" player there to make money.I understand std dev as far as the smaller the # the better, but with them giving it in a $ amount, what barometer should I use?  Is the $255 to high, average...??  Also, is one big bet an hour a good average?  Any other information or advice would be appreciated.  Thanks.

For purposes of calculating win rates and standard deviations, mixing results in dollars between $3-$6 sessions and $6-$12 sessions is a substantial mistake, and can lead to very misleading amounts. You should either calculate your win rate and standard deviation independently for each betting limit (this is more informative, and the game conditions are likely to be different on average at the two betting limits) or renormalize your session win data by bet size so you do all your calculations in terms of big bets rather than dollars.I'm going to assume for the rest of this post that you are playing entirely $6-$12 hold'em rather than "mostly." If that were the case, then a standard deviation of $255, more than 20 big bets, is HUGE. A typical winning player is going to have a standard deviation of 8 to 10 big bets for an hour's play, in your case somewhere between $75 and $125. What's more disturbing is this: the uncertainty of your win rate is your standard deviation divided by the square root of the number of hours played. In your case, this works out to $13.50, which is more than your average win rate. This data leaves wide open the question of whether or not you are actually a winning player.To compare, here are my results in playing my local $15-$30 game: I've played for 147.9 hours over the past two years, and I've averaged 1.27 big bets/per hour. My hourly standard deviation is 11.2 big bets, which is a little high, and the uncertainty of my win rate is 0.92 big bets. I am probably but by no means certainly beating this game.

[akishore 0]

alan bostick, you are becoming one of my favorite posters. always top notch quality. nice post.aseem

[econ_tim 0]

as long as you're focusing on maximizing your EV at all times, don't worry about your SD.

not entirely sound adviceDo U C Y?

[TheIceman05 0]

as long as you're focusing on maximizing your EV at all times, don't worry about your SD.

not entirely sound adviceDo U C Y?

U R U G L Y

[DrZebra 0]

DrZebra: I C U R A B.MrBumble: I M; I M.(DrZebra eats the perfectly punctuated bee.)DrZebra: I 8 U.

[akishore 0]

DrZebra: I C U R A B.MrBumble: I M; I M.(DrZebra eats the perfectly punctuated bee.)DrZebra: I 8 U.

rofl. aseem