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5/10 stud hi hand - questionable river laydown?


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I gave this a lot of thought before folding, and I can't decide if I made the right play.My limp on 3rd is certainly questionable; the game was very soft, and was playing more like 1/2 or 2/4 than 5/10.READS: Seat 4 is an idiot. I'm unfamiliar with seat 7.7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (converter)3rd Street - (0.80 SB)Hero: 3:diamond: 3:club: A:heart: ___calls___callsSeat 2: xx xx J:diamond: ___foldsSeat 3: xx xx 6:diamond: ___foldsSeat 4: xx xx T:club: ___calls___callsSeat 5: xx xx J:heart: ___calls___callsSeat 6: xx xx K:heart: ___completesSeat 7: xx xx 5:spade: ___brings-in___callsSeat 8: xx xx 9:heart: ___folds4th Street - (5.80 SB)Hero: 3:diamond: 3:club: A:heart: A:club: ___double bets___callsSeat 4: xx xx T:club: 4:diamond: ___calls___callsSeat 5: xx xx J:heart: K:club: ___foldsSeat 6: xx xx K:heart: T:diamond: ___foldsSeat 7: xx xx 5:spade: 8:spade: ___raises5th Street - (8.90 BB)Hero: 3:diamond: 3:club: A:heart: A:club: 8:diamond: ___checks___callsSeat 4: xx xx T:club: 4:diamond: 7:club: ___checks___callsSeat 7: xx xx 5:spade: 8:spade: 7:spade: ___bets6th Street - (11.90 BB)Hero: 3:diamond: 3:club: A:heart: A:club: 8:diamond: 6:spade: ___checks___callsSeat 4: xx xx T:club: 4:diamond: 7:club: 2:club: ___betsSeat 7: xx xx 5:spade: 8:spade: 7:spade: 9:club: ___calls (all-in)River - (14.78 BB)Hero: 3:diamond: 3:club: A:heart: A:club: 8:diamond: 6:spade: K:diamond: ___checks___foldsSeat 4: xx xx T:club: 4:diamond: 7:club: 2:club: xx___betsSeat 7: xx xx 5:spade: 8:spade: 7:spade: 9:club: xx___all-inTotal pot: (14.78 BB)

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I gave this a lot of thought before folding, and I can't decide if I made the right play.My limp on 3rd is certainly questionable; the game was very soft, and was playing more like 1/2 or 2/4 than 5/10.READS: Seat 4 is an idiot. I'm unfamiliar with seat 7.7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (converter)3rd Street - (0.80 SB)Hero: 3:diamond: 3:club: A:heart: ___calls___callsSeat 2: xx xx J:diamond: ___foldsSeat 3: xx xx 6:diamond: ___foldsSeat 4: xx xx T:club: ___calls___callsSeat 5: xx xx J:heart: ___calls___callsSeat 6: xx xx K:heart: ___completesSeat 7: xx xx 5:spade: ___brings-in___callsSeat 8: xx xx 9:heart: ___folds4th Street - (5.80 SB)Hero: 3:diamond: 3:club: A:heart: A:club: ___double bets___callsSeat 4: xx xx T:club: 4:diamond: ___calls___callsSeat 5: xx xx J:heart: K:club: ___foldsSeat 6: xx xx K:heart: T:diamond: ___foldsSeat 7: xx xx 5:spade: 8:spade: ___raises5th Street - (8.90 BB)Hero: 3:diamond: 3:club: A:heart: A:club: 8:diamond: ___checks___callsSeat 4: xx xx T:club: 4:diamond: 7:club: ___checks___callsSeat 7: xx xx 5:spade: 8:spade: 7:spade: ___bets6th Street - (11.90 BB)Hero: 3:diamond: 3:club: A:heart: A:club: 8:diamond: 6:spade: ___checks___callsSeat 4: xx xx T:club: 4:diamond: 7:club: 2:club: ___betsSeat 7: xx xx 5:spade: 8:spade: 7:spade: 9:club: ___calls (all-in)River - (14.78 BB)Hero: 3:diamond: 3:club: A:heart: A:club: 8:diamond: 6:spade: K:diamond: ___checks___foldsSeat 4: xx xx T:club: 4:diamond: 7:club: 2:club: xx___betsSeat 7: xx xx 5:spade: 8:spade: 7:spade: 9:club: xx___all-inTotal pot: (14.78 BB)
Well, I think I PROBABLY fold this one too, I think it is too likely that one of the two has a flush, I'm almost CERTAIN seat 4 does, but then again, you say he's an idiot......so who knows. I don't know, I guess sometimes I call it down on the river since it's only one bet, and other times I probably fold depending on reads. You definitely draw to the boat on 6th street though. And yes, I raise this 90 percent on the time on Third St.,
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Looks like an easy fold to me. Seat 7, IMO, has one of three hands:TripsStraightFlushAll of which beat your 2 pair.The side pot with Seat 4 is basically non-existant, so I just don't see if being worthwhile to call the bet there, UNLESS you are certain that Seat 7 does NOT have one of the three hands indicated above. Who cares what Seat 4 has in this scenario.

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honestly, I think that you should consider completing to start things off. You can represent the Ace and give fear to anyone that has a pair to start, or a couple of high cards. I don't see how you can call that river

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Without a doubt people play differently when they don't have enough bets to get through one hand.If seat 4 is truly an idiot, you have to assume he could have a huge range of hands and could easily be betting 2 pair here.Seat 7 raised on fourth knowing that you would be leading the next street which could give him the ability to check behind with a draw. The straight is very unlikely considering there are 2 6's left and is he really raising with a pair of 5's or eights?Given that you have to be more than 94% certain seat 7 has the flush to lay this hand down, I'd call the river bet.

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honestly, I think that you should consider completing to start things off. You can represent the Ace and give fear to anyone that has a pair to start, or a couple of high cards.
If the game were tighter, I'd totally agree. I'd either raise or fold, depending on how much respect my raises were getting. Given how soft the game was, though, I'm not sure (you might still be right; I'd like to get more discussion on this). There were several players that would have cold-called with a pair, a 3-flush, or a 3-straight, or even worse. I figured I didn't mind a multiway pot, since I had 5 outs to a very strong hand, so I'd just come in cheap, since I had little chance of knocking out any 3-flushes anyway.
If seat 4 is truly an idiot, you have to assume he could have a huge range of hands and could easily be betting 2 pair here.Seat 7 raised on fourth knowing that you would be leading the next street which could give him the ability to check behind with a draw. The straight is very unlikely considering there are 2 6's left and is he really raising with a pair of 5's or eights?Given that you have to be more than 94% certain seat 7 has the flush to lay this hand down, I'd call the river bet.
For seat 7, on 6th, there are 36 ways he could have a flush, 4 ways he could have 67 in the hole, 3 ways he could have trip 5's, 1 way he could have trip 8's, and 6 ways he could have 85. So that's 44 reasonable ways I'm beat, and 6 reasonable ways I'm ahead. Plus there's some chance that he could have something worse, especially since he's on a short stack. But, even if I was ahead on 6th, I could have been rivered. So I'm probably behind seat 7 something like 90% of the time. Plus, I still have to beat seat 4 (although I will break even on my river call when I lose to seat 7 but beat seat 4). Seat 4 is an idiot (see the result of my AK6 hand), but he's more likely to make idiotic calls than idiotic bets - but he is capable of making idiotic bets.I really doubt I'm ahead often enough to call here, although the pot's big enough that I guess it's pretty close.Also, for the record, I'm leading 5th if seat 7 doesn't catch a spade. I didn't notice he was almost all-in; if I had noticed I would have led anyway, to try to get another bet out of seat 4.
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