3 replies to this topic

[econ_tim]

Full Tilt Poker Game #316204048: Satellite to $30K Guarantee (1906530), Table 3 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:39:24 ET - 2005/12/01Seat 2: tracty (1,480)Seat 3: EWSO (3,025)Seat 4: james1204 (1,615)Seat 5: BuffaloRun53 (1,455)Seat 6: econ_tim (1,455)Seat 7: T-Bag176 (1,000)Seat 8: stak2034 (720)Seat 9: Better5000 (1,380)tracty posts the small blind of 15EWSO posts the big blind of 30The button is in seat #9*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to econ_tim [Tc Ts]james1204 foldsBuffaloRun53 foldsecon_tim raises to 120T-Bag176 raises to 1,000, and is all instak2034 has 15 seconds left to actstak2034 foldsBetter5000 foldstracty foldsEWSO foldsecon_tim foldsUncalled bet of 880 returned to T-Bag176T-Bag176 mucksT-Bag176 wins the pot (285)*** SUMMARY ***Total pot 285 | Rake 0Seat 2: tracty (small blind) folded before the FlopSeat 3: EWSO (big blind) folded before the FlopSeat 4: james1204 didn't bet (folded)Seat 5: BuffaloRun53 didn't bet (folded)Seat 6: econ_tim folded before the FlopSeat 7: T-Bag176 collected (285), muckedSeat 8: stak2034 didn't bet (folded)Seat 9: Better5000 (button) didn't bet (folded)Villain is a donk. He raised QTo UTG and bet into a dry sidepot with an underpair.Still, he hasn't pushed yet, so I figure the best case for me is he has overs.Do you take the chance early in a tourney (this is a 38 person tourney where top 3 get a seat in 30K guarantee)?

[Nightwolf]

I'd say folding is the correct move. Even if he's terrible, at best it's probably a coin flip.No reason to make this move so early in the tournament, unless you just wanted to gamble to double up.

[mk]

This type of player could be making this play with a pretty wide range. You're even money against [AA-66], [AK-AJ]. If you can include the lower pairs [55-22] and some weaker aces (which you probably can) you become a pretty substantial favorite. The pot is offering you 1.3:1 which means you only need better than 43% equity to make a call +EV. Also, since this is a satellite, it becomes similar in strategy to a winner take all tourney, which means you need to push any edge and occasionally gamble when you're a slight dog. 4th pays the same as 38th. I call here.