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bubble and big slick


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#21 KKsuited

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 01:51 PM

I agree with you the buy-in should not matter and I hope none of my particular posts sounded like that.My point was to make money in the long run in MTT's, you have to make some final tables. Playing like that won't get you to any final tables. I would bet Daniel would tell you the same thing in a 10k buy-in event.Watch a lot of the really good players in online events (online because you can watch more). They don't do anything stupid, but tell me they don't look like they could care less about busting out.While the weak players tighten up around the money, the good players are building their stacks for a final table run (with hands much worse than AK I might add). If they pick up AK and run into AA or KK, oh well, that's the breaks.

#22 ErikM

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Posted 16 February 2005 - 05:39 AM

AQ, AJ, TT, 99... are all foldable in that situation but they are also a lot weaker...You keep saying 8,000 is not that big of a difference but what you are continually over looking is... what if you pushed in got called by the big stack at the table who was holding KJ and you ended up doubling up.Now your holding 12,400.00

#23 CodyHartman

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Posted 16 February 2005 - 09:06 AM

DwayneWayne said:

I don’t see what the buy in has to do with anything. Shouldn’t the play be the same for a $5 buy in that it would be for a $30......$100 etc....If you make $50 out of a $30 investment that is a 60% ROI. Simple math that shouldn’t be overlooked.$30...give me a break, it doesn’t have to do with the money, I still think the play that should be made should be the correct play with all variables. I pushed, I am not convinced it was the right play here.The tourney pay out was something like:30-21 : $50 (thus making the next 10 spots worth no more then just getting inside the bubble)20-12: $8011: 10010-4: slide upward3: 5002: 12001: 2400My point of the post is not to say folding is the optimal choice for AK in MP with a small stack but given all of the variables in this instance I think folding is the better choice.If I fold the AK here I get into the money. No questions asked. That gives me $50 in the back and a stack of 6200. Still in 20-24th place(ish) out of the remaining 30. Now is this stack that much behind the player with a stack of 8K (the level I would be playing at when I push and win the blinds). .
I understand your point and will say that if you use the try and get paid theory for to long then your stack gets whittled don b/c your throwing away PREMIUM hands like AK. Your stack keeps getting lower. He is below the 10BB area and should be looking for oppertunties to build up his stack. His stack probably got that low b/c he just wanted to get paid.My point about the buy in is very similar to the 300 BB rule. His original post sounds like he is jsut wanted to get paid. So in this instance he is worried about getting the $30 buy in back. Yeah he is going to make $20 but if he is so worried about not getting paid then he should not be playing a $30 buy in tourney, b/c his roll can't handle the loss. Read what most pros will say about the "bubble" area and how to play there. they will agree about my logic. The one thing that is different about this payout scale is that many times the bubble area only gets paid 110% of the buy in. this structure is better for that area, making it seem like you may want to change your strategy and jsut get paid.I still stand by the push in move b/c of the thourght process in most players at this time. Many are willing to sit and try and get paid so pushing in is the way to accumulate chips. If a lesser hand thinks your stealing he may call with his K high. If there happens to be AA or KK in LP then that happens too (that's poker). My strategy changs at this point too for people who just want to get paid. I am trying to build my stack to WIN the whole darn thing. I'll keep robbing the blinds and antes to builid up my stack.just my psychology of the situation

#24 DwayneWayne

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Posted 16 February 2005 - 09:32 AM

My post was not that I wanted to get paid, my point was that at what point is it logical (real world) to fold a hand when you are guaranteed a 60% ROI on the original investment. The next 10 spots all get the same, the $50, now I understand that you go for #1, good for you, I know your on a poker forum and play great poker and will overcome the odds to take the big money but just blindly pushing because you have AK can’t possibly be correct.Quick question....Your in Vegas for during the WSOP and happen to walk up to a slot machine and it pays you off 10K. You get some blood flow and run over to the Rio and drop the 10K.5K ppl play and you find yourself after after 5 days with a stack that is 8 times the BB. Middle position. 500 players are making the money. 500-460 are getting $12K.AKo, folded to you. 502 players left.I’d be shocked if you even looked at the cards before you handed them back to the dealer. My point is that the fact that the Return you are getting on your initial investment has to have some folding equity when you are GUARANTEED to make the money if you just muck your cards when you are badly short stacked and a long shot to make the next level. I really don’t see how this is so black and white. I'm not saying folding AK here is the absolute best play but it certainly has some substance when you take into account all the factors here.$30 has nothing to do with it, it the idea of the original investment and when that should come into play when making a decision like this.Are you folding 99? TT? 77?

#25 ErikM

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Posted 16 February 2005 - 09:51 AM

I think I pretty much answered most of those questions...If your rate of return is THAT high than yes you fold AK... That would be similar to you winning the $30.00 buy in by playing a $1 tournement for a seat... in that case folding the AK to make a $49.00 profit is fine.That is not the case... you did not win the $30.00 seat in a $1.00 tournement... Nor did you win the $30.00 in a slot machine.You forked up the $30.00 buy inIn that case... If you believe that even if you double up in that spot you will still not be able to win a prize larger than the $50.00... it is correct to fold.However... If you believe that it is more than 60% possible that with a double up in this spot... you would be able to sneak into a higher paying prize... it is not correct to fold.Its a Risk Reward problem... it all depends on how you feel about your chances.Again... yes you are folding 99, TT, 77 in this spot... But those hands do not compare to AK, so I don't understand why you keep bringing it up.My opinion is that if you double up to 12,400.00 it is likely taht you can make it to a higher pay out.In tournements the average player tightens up on the the bubble and loosens once they are in the money... So it is my opinion that if you went all-in with AK and doubled up... you would then be able to screw down and wait for all the loose short stacks that snuck into the money to bust out... allowing you to advance.I thin there is a greater than %60 chance that this could work... Thus in my mind making it the correct play

#26 CodyHartman

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Posted 16 February 2005 - 10:15 AM

Great point guys, I miunderstood pieces of each of yur posts. It's all godd. It is just the way I would play the situation is all. ROI is nice, I will admit that there are times when I will play for the money. Maybe since your stack is pretty small yet there are 9 ppl w/ lower stacks, then folding to get the $$ may be right. Anyway ya do it stand by your discesion and don't second guess it, we are all right in our way of playing it and we could make a case for both sides.
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#27 AllenRay4

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Posted 16 February 2005 - 11:46 AM

i was in almost that exact situation last night on Full Tilt, 18 paid out, i was 19th of 23. i got AK mid pos and didnt even think about it, pushed all-in. the huge chip leader called me with A8! later on i got low again and pushed in with AQ and was called by AJ. i honestly think some people think of an all-in as a weaker hand in some cases....like they might be thinking to themselves "well if he he ad Aces, Kings or AK he might only raise a little to invite more people in" Nopefinished 3rd for $430 bucks, doubling my bankroll. push it in next time, there is always another tourney starting soon. i never play 'just to make the money' , there are too many blinds and antes to be stealing

#28 gobears

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Posted 16 February 2005 - 11:47 AM

I was in a Pokerstars $100 + $9 tournament a few months ago, 36 would get paid, and we were in hand to hand play as there were 37 left.I was in about 20th with the #1 chip leader to my right. He was the SB and I was the BB. He pushed all-in and I had AKo in my hand. I called, he flips over Q3o; the turn brought a Q and I was out as I didn't improve.I finished 37th and some bubble boy was very happy.I can't remember the economic theory term but everybody has a pain point where the pain of getting nothing outweighs the correct EV play. In the blog on the Pokerstars Atlantis tournament, there was a story about a player near the bubble who stopped playing anything (even pocket rockets) until he was in the money.It's sort of like if someone said that we could flip a coin once; if I call it right, he'll give me $50K; if I call it wrong, I owe him $40K. I have the right odds, but I'm not going to take this bet because of the pain if I lose.I figure that my bubble pain point is somewhere north of $100
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#29 DwayneWayne

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Posted 16 February 2005 - 12:42 PM

I pushed with the AK and I would push again, but I would def consider folding given the proper circumstances (which this scenario fits pretty closely, IMO).I guess the theme that I keep getting is that you have the best of it a lot more then you don’t with AK. But my point is that can it be that much of a mistake to fold the AK, get into the money then push with AJ. Is the power lost by droping from AK to AJ or even 88 once in the money and pushing with the 6200 worth getting nothing?Pain point @ $100....i don’t think my second guessing had to do with dollars in cents as far as hey $50...great! It had to do with the smartest +EV move at that particular moment. Pushing is probably a better play for the times you survive and place in the money a lot higher then if you go card dead and blind off into small money. But I still think folding is closer behind the “right” play then ppl are giving credit for.***Check out the Cardplayer Article by Mark Gregorich, it deals with the same thing.....kid had a pair!"

#30 ErikM

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Posted 16 February 2005 - 12:50 PM

[quote name='"DwayneWayne"]But my point is that can it be that much of a mistake to fold the AK' date=' get into the money then push with AJ. Is the power lost by droping from AK to AJ or even 88 once in the money and pushing with the 6200 worth getting nothing?[quote']This is a good question... the only problem with it is... who's to say you will get a AJ or 88 soon enough for it to make a difference?I can see a scenario where you get a whole bunch of 5-3, 7-2, and 8-4...than when you finally do get a wired pair or two big tickets... you are so short stacked that doubling up doesn't help all that much.

#31 maxone22

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Posted 17 February 2005 - 08:37 AM

I fold here and take the small payday. At 6100 and 24th of 33, this is probably the last hand before the money. After 2 to 3 hours I want to see something, even if it is just a free buyin to the next. Some will say this is very weak play and will not get you a final table. True. At this stage in this tournament, I'd say your not making the final table anyway. Top 10 by now have 30-40x your stack. By now they've made a habit of calling all-ins with almost any 2 and catching. To me its not worth it. I make the final table another tourney....maybe using the buyin I got from this one~

#32 AllenRay4

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Posted 19 February 2005 - 01:39 PM

no way...that is essentially giving up. i have been in last or close to last numerous times and never do i think "oh i wont make the final table"....the blinds/antes are so big you can quickly go from 20th / 22 to 8 or 9th in a couple all in pots. in fact, when i got 3rd the other day in a $20 tourney, i was in last place 6 diff times with less than 25 people to play...not to mention dead last coming into the final tablenever give up...its such a cliche but if you are playing to win your money back, unless you have a reason to NOT put your chips all in with what is probably the best hand (ex...maybe you are 4th in chips, chip leader put you all in after a series of raises....then MAYBE i fold kings or something) or you are just costing yourself time/money/chips

#33 Bonobio

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Posted 19 February 2005 - 05:28 PM

You're either going to be -$30 or +$50. That's an $80 swing and you aren't going to blind out anytime soon. Being on a shorter stack, I say make your money. Other chances will arise.That's just how I feel right now. During play my results may vary :wink:

#34 ddudley

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Posted 19 February 2005 - 07:13 PM

Play to win, second place is the first place loser.
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#35 Stewy

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Posted 23 February 2005 - 08:24 PM

I would fold my way into the money. It may not sound macho or whatever. I have already put over two hours of my time and would atleast like to have something to show for it. At this stage of the tournament I am a short to medium stack surviving to the money or I am the big stack stealing pots at every chance. Many times I see it in tournaments once everyone is in the money things can change so fast. The big stacks have trouble changing gears and make some horrendous calls and alot of the medium sized stacks change gears and run over the table. I have had most succes in tournaments surviving into the money and catching a rush against some loose calling big stacks.

#36 Guest_XXEddie_*

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Posted 25 February 2005 - 09:35 PM

Kendren said:

3x bb raise, try to pick up the pot preflop. Fold to any significant reraise. We play conservative unless the flop beats us over the head, knowing that our 4000 stack will likely get us to the money anyways. But that 2100 in the pot pre would be very nice right now.
3xB B in 1/3 your stack if your gonna raise here go all-in. And you have a better chance picking up the blinds with an allin than a standard raise

#37 Metro

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Posted 28 February 2005 - 07:27 AM

A few things I consider as I get closer and closer to the bubble - 1. How low are the lowest stacks. If there are 2 people with say... 1000 on different tables, the pressure is on them, not you, to double up. You apparently had 9 people stacked at this point, so clearly there are a few in very rough shape. 2. Where are the big stacks at my table, and what are their stack sizes in relation to mine. A much larger stack behind me will probably be eager to call. However, he might also be more likely to sit back and use the tight play of the short stacks to his advantage. Big stacks have all kinds of power over stealing blinds from the small stacks in this situation, so why would he risk losing all of the potential cash he could pick up from the blinds over the next few hands while everyone is ultra-tight just for your 6k. 3. What percentage of my stack do I stand to gain by just pushing all in at this point. 6200, 2100 in the pot. That's 1/3 of my stack simply by stealing the blinds, if I get called, I might be in great shape to a loose big stack that's just trying to get rid of the small stacks. You're in MP. EP, Someone would probably put you on a premium if you pushed in. From MP and being a short stack, this looks more like a blind-steal, so you might get action from hands you have dominated. 4. Which is more important to me, profiting, however small it is, from this tournament, or making a run at the serious money. If you can say to yourself that you are content to just take the $50 and buy into the next tourney, so be it. I think you won't find many people here that agree with you though. The time invested in one of these things, for a $20 profit translates to less money/hour than you would probably have made playing a microlimit table for that duration.All that being said, I push all in here. And I'll be honest, I don't want to get called. In the majority of situations that you are called, you're going to find yourself behind, and I'm more than happy to take my stack from 6200 to 8300. Gives me that much more to work with the next time I run around to steal the blinds.

#38 bobbytheo3

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Posted 03 March 2005 - 10:34 AM

it hasnt been said and it may seem passive, but i think limping is a good, tricky play here. after all, AK is a drawing hand essentially. if you dont hit the flop, your probly not gonna win the hand. this way, you can fold if an ace or king doesnt hit the flop. and if one does, someone might make a play on you and go all in representing the A or K. also, by limping, you might entice one of the blinds to make a steal attempt preflop with a weaker hand like A-x or K-Q since you have feigned weakness.

#39 DwayneWayne

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Posted 03 March 2005 - 01:49 PM

"it hasnt been said and it may seem passive, but i think limping is a good, tricky play here. after all, AK is a drawing hand essentially. if you dont hit the flop, your probly not gonna win the hand. this way, you can fold if an ace or king doesnt hit the flop. and if one does, someone might make a play on you and go all in representing the A or K. also, by limping, you might entice one of the blinds to make a steal attempt preflop with a weaker hand like A-x or K-Q since you have feigned weakness.["Limping?? Are you serious?So your gonna call off your stack and a chance to win the 2100 of dead money in the pot?Limping is not an option here.

#40 bobbytheo3

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Posted 04 March 2005 - 07:41 AM

haha, hard to believe you are so against that play considering you actually think folding is a viable option at all. folding is by far the worst play. going all in or a 3xbb raise are also good plays. i just think limping in gives you the best chance to double up here with a trap, which is what you are tryin to do to set yourself up to get to the final table. taking the blinds isnt bad, but you are enticing someone to make a bluff at the pot if you limp, especially one of the big stacks who thinks everyone on the bubble will be playing super-tight. folding is laughable, even if you raise 3X BB and somone goes over the top all in, you have to call at that point. your only dominated by AA or KK, but there are a number of hands you dominate and your pot odds are way to good to fold against any other pocket pair in a coin flip situation.




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