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bubble and big slick


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#1 DwayneWayne

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Posted 11 February 2005 - 06:16 AM

NL Online $30. 284 ppl. Top 30 Pay. 30th pays $50, 1st pays $2800.There are 33 ppl left, average stack is around 11K, you have 6200, and are in 24 place.Blinds are 400-800 with a 100 ante.You are in Middle Position with AKo.your play?

#2 Kendren

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Posted 11 February 2005 - 07:27 AM

3x bb raise, try to pick up the pot preflop. Fold to any significant reraise. We play conservative unless the flop beats us over the head, knowing that our 4000 stack will likely get us to the money anyways. But that 2100 in the pot pre would be very nice right now.

#3 DwayneWayne

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Posted 11 February 2005 - 07:55 AM

Your saying a 3 x BB bet (2400) wonít invite a bigger stack to pick up on some weakness and push you all in with say 88-AA even a hand like 66 might take a shot. I think a big stack with AK would push me all in at this point, making my decision very difficult to call or not. Then if Iím able to fold I am down to around 2k by the time the button gets to me (needing to fold into the money and leaving me all but dead once inside (if I even get there).Does anybody disagree with just folding till your inside the money then pushing and making a run or what about pushing here? Is folding too weak? I canít help but looking at it like I am getting paid $50 to fold AK here.????

#4 KKsuited

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Posted 11 February 2005 - 08:04 AM

No question I'd go all in. Once you're below 10 BB's, you have no room to just raise and see a flop. You have to go all in or fold.Here's why, say someone has QJ and a big enough stack to call your 2400 raise. Now if they hit the flop, they are not folding for you last 4k.If you go all-in before the flop, they may not like their QJ and you pick up the blinds and ante's, which are very valuable at that stage. If he calls, you get to see all 5 cards.Plays like the 2nd poster mention are a very commone misstake. It's a simple rule, if you are at 8 BB's, you can not just call, hope to hit the flop and fold if not. You have 2 choices, all-in or fold.I watched a friend of mine who just pissed all his chips away the other day doing the same thing. He called a raise for 1/3 of his chips then folded on the flop. Absolutely terrible play.In the AK example, the one poster suggested raising 3BB or about 1/3 of you chips. What if you miss the flop and the other player moves in? Are you going to bet 1/3 of you chips, then fold leaving youself 5 BB's? I hope not.You're not going to be very successful trying to slide your way into 30th place. If you get AK in that spot, no question you push all in.

#5 DwayneWayne

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Posted 11 February 2005 - 08:32 AM

I pushed when the action came to me last night and got picked off by AA. Out in 31st place. Now I understand that the only hands that are calling are AA, KK, even QQ. JJ-99 with anyone with a moderately big stack and the bigger the stack the bigger the range of hands that would call me. I still think though that the majority of hands that are calling here on the bubble are ahead. Any PP bigger then 77 and I am a tie with AK if someone will call with that. I donít see AQ or AJ calling here enough times to show a profit. This is the bubble of a MTT, not a sit and go.Looking back I look at it like this. (anyone who wants to agrue this please do)Fold, I still have 6200 chips can can basically sit out till I make the money. Giving me a better chance to move further along if I can pick up a hand in the next orbit or two. 99.9% chance of making $50 with a fold. I was in 25th place only needing 1 player to bust out as it turns out. Its not like I was the short stack. If I move all in and win the blinds (which is the goal) I now have a stack of around 8K. Or I Push and double up....the times that I win the blinds + the times that I win and double up have to come out to around 60-70% of the time. (I still think the only hands in this particular spot that are calling are ahead, thus making it wrong to put my chips in) That means I am going bust the other 30% with no $$. By pushing all-in I am risking $50 to win the same $50 with a semi-better shot at making a bigger score. Is this not a sound logic to favor folding here? What I lose when I lose is worth more then what I gain when I win.

#6 KKsuited

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Posted 11 February 2005 - 09:50 AM

I don't think folding is a terrible play, but I probably wouldn't do it.That's just not how I play. If you want to try to sneak into the money and get your $50, then that's fine. You're passing up a group 1 premium hand.I also don't agree that you only going to get called by hands that have you beat. It depends on the stack sizes at your table, but some of the bigger stacks will take a chance with 77,88, AQ, AJ. Two of those hands you have dominated and if you win the hand, you'll be above the average.Each orbit costs you $2100. You won't last to long with $6k. If you do make the money, you'll hardly have any chips.The real money in MTT is at the final table. You'll have a hard time making it there playing like that.

#7 ErikM

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Posted 11 February 2005 - 12:51 PM

I say push all in...the only two hands you are affraid of is AA or KK and if someone has either hand... those are the breaks.vs QQ-22 it is a 50/50 coin flip... and you dominate any other hand.so... I say push in... I do see your stance on the matter too... But... what you are doing is playing for 30th place. If your only concern is cashing... then by all means fold.But If you want any shot at winning this thing. You have to commit with the hand in that situation and let the chips fall where they may.

#8 Kendren

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Posted 11 February 2005 - 12:59 PM

lol maybe I should have prefaced my post with the fact that I too got picked off with 45 left top 40 paid last night with AKs vs AA after a K came on the flop and a flush draw on the turn. Never all in, I ended up going from 11k to 4k and limping to 29th, but still. I think what everyone says is correct, it comes down to what you want. If you're comfortable with the fact that you could very easily bust out 31st, but give yourself a better chance to win, good. If you're like me and every cash counts, play a little more conservative here. I wish I had he BR again to push to win in that situation, I did once :D

#9 DwayneWayne

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Posted 11 February 2005 - 02:42 PM

The argument I make for folding is not to fold into the money and be happy that I made it. If I push and win the blinds my stack ONLY goes up to around 8K, yes I know itís an orbit but at what price? Iím not sold that my chances with 8K in that spot are so much greater then my chances in the same spot with my 6200 and $50 in the bank.Thatís my point.So your telling me that your in the WSOP and on the bubble with AK your not throwing it away if you are 99% sure you can money by folding. The post was to get the best tournament strategy on the bubble, I still think folding AK with a ďworkableĒ stack right on the bubble is while prudent, still the smarter play. There is no reason to go bust on the bubble when you have a stack that can fold into the money.

#10 ThePokerGeek

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Posted 12 February 2005 - 03:15 AM

Only that when I play, I play for the win, not to limp into the money. If I ever make the decision that winning the tournament is out of reach and that I'm content to limp away with just over my initial buy-in, then I've wasted my time even entering the tournament.See my signature for an appropriate quote.-PokerGeek
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#11 KKsuited

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Posted 12 February 2005 - 11:08 AM

Like I said, I don't think it's terrible, but I wouldn't do it.You don't have a "workable" stack when you're down to 8 bb's. But yes, you could fold into the money probably.That just the exact style that ever poker book tells you to take advantage of with a decent to big stack near the money. Players like you will fold even premium hands. That's a great time for good players to build their stack.If the money for the last paid spot means that much to you, you're playing over your limit.

#12 Guest_XXEddie_*

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Posted 12 February 2005 - 12:55 PM

lets see....AK with less than 8xBB...I can go allin or quit poker for life. If you really wanna win u gotta move in here.

#13 pokerplayer75

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Posted 12 February 2005 - 01:34 PM

If you're paying $30 doing all that work to win $50 then it's not such a smart investment in my point of view. I think you'd be better off playing cash games, less risk there. It's not like you get ace king every other hand. You can go a long time without seeing that and with a shortstack when you have to make your move you have to make your move. It sucks when you're so close to the money but that's the risk you have to take.

#14 Neb41

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Posted 13 February 2005 - 01:04 PM

how much 29th 28th and so on get should effect ure desicion

#15 KDawgCometh

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Posted 13 February 2005 - 02:23 PM

being the first to act, pushing in isn't a bad idea you are shortstacked and at this point you probably won't get called

#16 ErikM

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Posted 14 February 2005 - 05:36 AM

DwayneWayne said:

The argument I make for folding is not to fold into the  money and be happy that I made it. If I push and win the blinds my stack ONLY goes up to around 8K, yes I know itís an orbit but at what price? Iím not sold that my chances with 8K in that spot are so much greater then my chances in the same spot with my 6200 and $50 in the bank.Thatís my point.So your telling me that your in the WSOP and on the bubble with AK your not throwing it away if you are 99% sure you can money by folding. The post was to get the best tournament strategy on the bubble, I still think folding AK with a ďworkableĒ stack right on the bubble is while prudent, still the smarter play.  There is no reason to go bust on the bubble when you have a stack that can fold into the money.
Yeah but you are missing my point... I wouldn't be pushing all-in here hoping everyone would fold. Per my previous post I am pushing all in in hopes that someone with anything but AA and KK will call.I would LOVE a call by a huge stack with AQ, AJ, AT or KQ, KJ... any of those hands from someone with a lot of chips looking to bust out short stacks.Even though I'm very slightly behind I wouldn't mind a call from someone with JJ or TT or even 77. Coin flip... LETS GAMBLE!My point was that at that point in the tournement with your short stack right on the bubble... the only ppl who will tangle with you are big stacks that can double you up.And there is a high possibility that one of those big stacks will call your bet, for the sake of potentially knocking you out with a weaker hand than yours.In other words... you had a great opportunity to get all your money in with the best hand (or in a 50/50 situation), and potentially double up and move a lot deeper into the tournement than 30th place.You could have made a run for one of the top spots... With your approach, you have little chance of winning one of the bigger prizes.And to answer your question... If I was in the WSOP and one away from the money. Yes I would fold AK to try to cash.My reasoning is that if I was in the WSOP it would be because I won a seat through a sat or super-sat. Therefore even the small payout of $10,000.00 in on of those early positions would still (to me anyways) be a substantial profit compared to my investment.But the fact of the matter is... You weren't in WSOP. You were in some small buy-in tournement, and you were playing to more or less break even.And that to me is a huge waste of time. Go big or go home. If your not playing in a $30.00 buy-in tournement to win one of the top three prizes, its not worth the time you are investing.

#17 ThePokerGeek

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 07:47 AM

ErikM has said it better than I ever could. Thanks.-PokerGeek
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#18 holman3rd

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 09:26 AM

KDawgCometh said:

being the first to act, pushing in isn't a bad idea you are shortstacked and at this point you probably won't get called
This is a key point that really needs emphasizing. You can't just say push all-in b/c you are less than 10x BB. Poker is not that black and white. You push here because you have less than 10x BB AND you are near the bubble. Play tightens up considerably near the bubble, and your raise will likely take down the blinds. Most of the time, the only hands that call you here are QQ or better (MOST of the time, with skilled players that are familiar with the Gap Principle). Less skilled players may call you with less, but that's ok b/c you're no worse than a coin flip. The 3x BB raise is OK here, imo, b/c you're likely to only get called by AA or KK, if you're table image is tight. Then again, be very aware of stack sizes b/c a huge stack is likely to call you down with less than that. I'm sure at least one person will disagree with my thinking, but at the very least I want to emphasize that you can't just say you must push b/c you have less than 10x BB. Well, you can say that, but the advice is far too simple. The stage of the tourney and the stack sizes are all key considerations. Given that it's near the bubble AND assuming you don't have any huge stacks behind you, I say that the 3x BB raise is the best route. Now, let me add some controversy. What if a player behind you who is not a huge stack comes over the top of you to set you all-in? I fold. You are likely up against AA or KK and a big dog. Any skilled player that came over the top would look at your raise of approx 50% of your stack and assume they would get called. They would not likely make this move with anything less than KK.

#19 CodyHartman

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 10:08 AM

Are you playing to win or just make the money?Most ppl are willing to fold most hands except AA KK AK , at this point. take advantage and try robbing some people in later position with marginal hands.If you lose the $30 buy in and that is a big deal to you, then maybe you shouldn't be playing for that type of a buy in.

#20 DwayneWayne

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Posted 15 February 2005 - 01:25 PM

I donít see what the buy in has to do with anything. Shouldnít the play be the same for a $5 buy in that it would be for a $30......$100 etc....If you make $50 out of a $30 investment that is a 60% ROI. Simple math that shouldnít be overlooked.$30...give me a break, it doesnít have to do with the money, I still think the play that should be made should be the correct play with all variables. I pushed, I am not convinced it was the right play here.The tourney pay out was something like:30-21 : $50 (thus making the next 10 spots worth no more then just getting inside the bubble)20-12: $8011: 10010-4: slide upward3: 5002: 12001: 2400My point of the post is not to say folding is the optimal choice for AK in MP with a small stack but given all of the variables in this instance I think folding is the better choice.If I fold the AK here I get into the money. No questions asked. That gives me $50 in the back and a stack of 6200. Still in 20-24th place(ish) out of the remaining 30. Now is this stack that much behind the player with a stack of 8K (the level I would be playing at when I push and win the blinds). I donít think so. I donít think the equity I gain by getting up to 8K is worth possibly not taking a guaranteed 60% ROI for folding. Sure the goal is the FT but with 32..31...players left and under 10X BB your goal has to be a realistic take the money and wait for the bubble to burst.What about AQ? AJ? What about TT or 99.....? Same play? Go broke on these? I donít agree that the buy in level should have anything to do with it.




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