7 replies to this topic

[Devilkin]

Hi gang. Im a relatively new person to the forums, been playing online for a couple months now. I credit seeing Daniel and Freddy Deeb in a head to head on TV a few months ago for generating my interest in poker, and its paid off thus far (up about $200 playing .5/1 tables over that time). But I must admit, most of my success has come from 'natural ability', not any super poker strategy. So, now the real schooling begins.I've been reading through this site, a poker book I bought, and places like twoplustwo.com, to get an idea how the experts , or at least players better than me, do it. And the concept of pot odds keeps coming up.So, since I don't have anyone in RL to talk poker with, I'm hoping to make some friends here and talk about poker concepts as I understand them. Feel free to rip them apart to help me put my game back together - Id rather do it here than at the table where a big mistake costs me big bucks.Pot odds, as I understand it, is a comparison of the odds that the cards I need to improve my hand are greater than the ratio of bet:pot size. Example:Preflop - 4 people call BB, one raises, all others call, so there is the equivalent of 10 bets in the flop. I hold 6s7s on the button.Flop comes As Kd 4sSo, here I am with a possible flush draw. As I understand it, I calculate my odds of getting one more spade on the turn as 9/47 (9 spades left in the deck vs 47 unseen cards), or 19%, or 4:1 roughly. So, calling seems like a good idea, even a small raise, since it would be close to the pot odds. Am I correct so far?Turn comes Qs - great! I've hit my flush. Now the problem begins . . player bets, all others fold, play is to me. I raise, and am immediately hit with a reraise. This situation screams either two pair, or flush on the other side. In this situation, do I use pot odds to decide whether to call/raise, or do I use my instinct to get a feel as to what type of player this guy is (loose agressive in which case Id call/raise, or tight in which case he must really have something). What would you do?Thanks for any help, and I try to become a student of a game that has really become a passion.Dev

[Alcatraz]

Your understanding of pot odds is correct. It's the odds that the pot is laying you vs the odds of winning the hand. When you're on a draw, that means the odds of making the draw and can be figured precisely, as you demonstrated. When you're contemplating a call with what may be the 2nd best hand, then it's the odds the pot is laying vs the odds of having the best hand and that is something you can't make an exact determination on.If you're playing limit poker in the example given, then I think it's an easy call. Preflop there were 10 BB's in the pot. On the flop, if I read your example correctly, 5 more BB's went in. Actualy, you're not really clear about that, but let's assume that when the Qs hits, there are 15 BB''s in the pot. He bets out (the turn bet is 2 BB's) and you raise, he reraises. There are 21 BB's in the pot and you need to put 2 BB's in to call. The pot is is giving you 10.5 to 1 odds here. However you're not really done figuring odds yet, because now you have to deal with reverse implied odds. Reverse implied odds takes into account the additional money you're going to have to put in on the river. I would count on having to call one more bet on the river, so instead of saying you're calling 2 BB's for a 21 BB pot, consider it 4 BB's for a 23 BB pot. Now the pot is laying you a little better than 5:1 odds. If you have the winning hand 1 out of 6 times, calling has a positive EV. With the information you've provided, I'd say it's an easy call. However, before making that decision there are other things I'd like to know. Is the better the preflop raiser? If so, it's likely that you're up against AK or a set. That should make you happy since you're way ahead in the pot and his redraws are limited. Is the better the same person that bet on the flop? If he was not the raiser preflop but bet the flop, it's not uncommon for players to bet their 4 flushes... this would increase the odds that you're beat. Is this a new better, firing chips for the first time? If so, it's possible that he just now made a 4 flush and is only on a draw for a bigger flush.Keep in mind also that even if you have the best hand on the turn, he probably has outs to beat you. If he's on a set or 2 pair, he has a boat draw. If he's on a four flush, another suited card will likely kill you.

[Devilkin]

Thanks for the prompt reply - very valuable information. There are a couple things you said that I hadn't put together before:1. Keep track of who raises pre-flop - that infers a high starting hand (paired or unpaired). In my example, the As Qs are on the board, so if I was a betting man, Id put him as either having paired the Ace or Queen with a kicker, not a high flush draw, since the best he could have in his hand would be KsJs, not a hand that would be raised. Correct? 2. So, in the case that you fleshed out for me, at what would you do in the event that my opponent a) calls and B) bets?Thanks again!Dev

[Alcatraz]

Devilkin said:

Thanks for the prompt reply - very valuable 1. Keep track of who raises pre-flop - that infers a high starting hand (paired or unpaired). In my example, the As Qs are on the board, so if I was a betting man, Id put him as either having paired the Ace or Queen with a kicker, not a high flush draw, since the best he could have in his hand would be KsJs, not a hand that would be raised. Correct?

I would put him on the Ace, possibly AQ or even AA. However, KJ suited is a hand that many players will raise with, particularly in low limit games.Another strong possibility is that he has AK with the king high flush draw.

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2. So, in the case that you fleshed out for me, at what would you do in the event that my opponent a) calls and B) bets?Thanks again!Dev

I call. You have a made hand in a large pot, and very few of the hands I put him have me beat. If a 4th suited card hits the river then I have to consider dumping the hand to a bet.There's another point to be made here, however... and that's a gentle reminder that junk cards are junk cards. You've got 2 smallish suited cards and you've made what might be 2nd best hand. Now they may cost you extra money, and even if you have the best hand you can't maximize your profit. If I had a dollar for every time I made a good hand with junk and lost, I'd be playing at higher limits today :DMy favorite example was a tournament hand where I had 27 in the big blind and got to see a free flop. The flop came 227 and I ended up losing half my stack to pocket 7's

[Devilkin]

Hmm excellent points all. Im learning alot from this conversation, so let me continue to flesh it out to enhance my understanding.I agree calling a bet is a good idea. And yes, 'junk hands' as you call them can lead you to a major loss, like in my example. So why do some places recommend playing 'suited connectors'? I understand the concept that they have multiple ways of winning (flush draw, straight, straight flush) that make them useful, but don't they also lead moreso to 'second best hands', such as in my example.I don't mean to beat a dead horse on this example, but I can sense that Im close to understanding a major concept in poker strategy, and Im hoping that the lightbulb will go on, and my game will improve because of it.ThanksDev

[Alcatraz]

You've got the right concept but you're not fully applying it.Suited connectors go up in value in multi-way pots because you need multi way pots to give you pot odds to draw for flushes and straights. Big pairs and big cards (like AK) go down in value because in a multi way pot they have to improve to win.So you're correct in thinking that you should play suited connectors in low limit games. However, taking that to an extreme would mean 23 suited is a playable hand and I don't know anyone that believes that. Playing a 56 suited is marginal at best, especialy out of position.

[copernicus]

Alcatraz said:

However you're not really done figuring odds yet, because now you have to deal with reverse implied odds.  Reverse implied odds takes into account the additional money you're going to have to put in on the river.  I would count on having to call one more bet on the river, so instead of saying you're calling 2 BB's for a 21 BB pot, consider it 4 BB's for a 23 BB pot.  Now the pot is laying you a little better than 5:1 odds.  If you have the winning hand 1 out of 6 times, calling has a positive EV.  With the information you've provided, I'd say it's an easy call.  .

Actually this is a description of implied odds, not reverse implied odds...the pot you expect to win/current and future bets compared to your drawing chances and assuming you win if you make your hand.Reverse implied odds is essentially your opponents view of his implied odds, or, from your viewpoint, what it will cost you to find out that your hand has become 2d best when he makes his hand.

[Alcatraz]

Hmm I've always understood implied odds to be the extra bets you're going to get at the end while reverse impllied odds are the extra bets you'll have to call on the turn to get there.