7 replies to this topic

[gobucks]

I have been playing online for about a year now, but not until about a month ago have I started playing strictly limit hold em and recording my results. I play $1/$2 limit holdem, usually two tables at a time. I started with $150, so far I have played 1730 hands and I am down -$19.74. Now, is this an indication that I am just a poor player or is it still too few hands to tell what my long term success rate will be? I mean I am not close to losing my starting bankroll, but I feel I should be on the positive side in terms of income after playing 1000 plus hands. Any feedback from some of the experienced players out there would be much appreciated.

[Abbaddabba]

Check your data for a trend line and the variance. That'll probably give you a good indication of whether your sample estimator is sufficient. (the trend line being more to see if you're improving than if the sample is sufficient)

[Markmadness]

Try playing one table for abit and see what happens. That does not sound bad -19 bucks but you may be losing a buck here and there multi tabling it

[wrto4556]

You have nothing to worry about....well, assuming you play good. Variance happens. 2,000 hands is a small sample, 10,000 hands is a small sample. You really shouldn't have a clue where you're at right now.If you are still down at 10,000 you might want to start thinking about your play.In the mean time, post some hand histories. If we notice that you are playing correctly then the downswing can only be from variance rather than poor play.

[akishore]

(weird, i seem to be posting directly after wrto on all these threads... i think we both have no life and are putting off more important things :-) )1000 hands is nothing. really. it seems like a lot but it's nothing. consider the fact that you can get 1225 different starting hands. then consider that by the river, there are over 600 BILLION different 7-card combinations possible.and a year isn't a lot either. i know, it's a full year. hell, i haven't even been playing poker for a full year. but numbers don't lie... a year is really more towards "short run" than "long run" (i made a post about this, under general forum, something like "luck vs. skill").so you really can't know where you are. but one thing i can help you with is:you're playing way too high for your bankroll, unless your bankroll is more than the $150 you put into the site. if you haven't heard this before, 300 big bets is the safest amount to have as a bankroll, so with $150, you should be playing 25c/50c limit. if you want to play $1/2, you should have $600 in your bankroll.just keep playing and as wrto said, post some hands. you can play for a year and still have the same leaks in your games for a year, so make a conscious effort to improve and i guarantee your game will only go upwards.hope this helps,aseem

[gobucks]

Appreciate the feedback boys.. You're right it's still very short term right now...since the time I posted this I'm back in green side of things..which is a good feeling for the moment.. I think it's of huge advantage to me when I just play one table where I can concentrate fully on the action and take the proper notes. When I multi-table it just seems to become too hard to keep up. Do any of you have the same problems or not? Plus, if it's so tough to make any substantial money in the not so long term side of things even playing correct poker, how can anyone continually earn money at a steady rate in this game??

[Markmadness]

Most people who work full time like my buddy playing poker. Try to win one big bet an hour. He plays 10/20. So he basically makes 17 to 20 bucks an hour. He basically lives day to day grinding it out. Some weeks are better than others but he makes a living. Nothing huge. For me its basically have fun and make some extra bucks. I play the .50/1 or home games. if i make 40 bucks a week playing poker thats great. Once my bankroll get higher, i plan on making more. I am glad you tried playing one table at a time. I find myself i can't handle two tables. I like to concentrate take notes on every player. check hand histories. etc... Build your bankroll and get better and when you reach the 5/10 tables and able to make one big bet an houryou will be laughing or win the wsop lol

[Awful]

Yeah, winrate takes forever to be really known and can be chalked up to skill and actually beating the game as opposed to luck and the swings one will see over the course of proper, aggressive play.You're probably actually up on gameplay and down due to the rake from each pot, but that's still immaterial, since you could just be marginally lucky to accomplish that. Additionally, 10 big bets is a session loss to ignore, not a career loss to worry about. Don't sweat it for quite a while, both in terms of hands and also loss size. Relax. Swings happen. Sizable ones. Ones that last longer than you'd guess. You can make them worse, but you can't make them better. In fact, I just moved to a new site bonus-whoring and I'm down 50 big bets in the last 3 days (losing more than I bonus-clear. damn embarrasing, but I'll own up to my recent fishiness), about 500 hands. I still know I can beat that game and will turn it around... I've been unlucky, but then badly tilting and sometimes beaten into passive, weak, low-value play. It happens, I just need to get back to playing well and keep seeing those guys play 9-6s from UTG+1. It takes more time than you've given it, and don't be concerned. See, I'm a bigger failure than you just this week, and I'm staying upbeat.However, your bankroll is a bit short to ride out variance and still play at levels that will allow you to battle back. Scale things down to .25/.50, move up at 250-300 bucks to .5/1, try to collect 5-600 to play 1/2. You could wipe yourself out in a bad day, and can't press every edge you see right now which is where a lot of your true earn comes from.10k hands would be a better benchmark for being +/-. Even that will still have some luck factor. Relax man, play at a level you can take swings at, play well, and it'll be there over time.