11 replies to this topic

[rusmac31]

NLHE - 2 table tourny on Party...$10-1 buyin...top 4 pay6 handed table...I'm the buttonmy chip stack = 610...short stack at tableBlinds 50/1002 early limpers...on the button have QJ os...I limp, the SB completes and the BB checks (yes I realize I probably should've raised or folded but the table was passive pre-flop most of the tourny)500 in the potFlop: 10, 8, 2 rainbowSB goes all-in for 910, everyone folds to me, what do you think SB has?Do you call?I'll post what I did later

[gobears]

rusmac31 said:

NLHE - 2 table tourny on Party...$10-1 buyin...top 4 pay6 handed table...I'm the buttonmy chip stack = 610...short stack at tableBlinds 50/1002 early limpers...on the button have QJ os...I limp, the SB completes and the BB checks (yes I realize I probably should've raised or folded but the table was passive pre-flop most of the tourny)500 in the potFlop: 10, 8, 2 rainbowSB goes all-in for 910, everyone folds to me, what do you think SB has?Do you call?I'll post what I did later

SB could have anything - I'd fold because I really only have a draw - two overcards plus a gut shot straight draw.

[Awful]

Fold preflop; you can't drive out all the limpers and are behind one of them. QJo is not good, and pushing into an opened pot (even limped, as the limpers should know you're on the short stack) is a recipie for disaster unless you have a big hand.OK, that said, on that flop it doesn't matter what he has. the only thing you are ahead of is j9 with the open ended straight draw.Underpairs have you beat, sets have you drawing dead, 2 pair has you looking for runner-runner, most bluffs have you high-carded... there's no reason to call unless someone straight-up shows you their J9 before you make your decision.Furthermore, he is more likely to have good strength because while it's a raggedy flop, it was unraised as well and he's acting for all his chips without position to give him any information and with absolutely no reads from preflop action.

[Chip_and_a_Chair]

Awful said:

Fold preflop; you can't drive out all the limpers and are behind one of them. QJo is not good, and pushing into an opened pot (even limped, as the limpers should know you're on the short stack) is a recipie for disaster unless you have a big hand.OK, that said, on that flop it doesn't matter what he has. the only thing you are ahead of is j9 with the open ended straight draw.Underpairs have you beat, sets have you drawing dead, 2 pair has you looking for runner-runner, most bluffs have you high-carded... there's no reason to call unless someone straight-up shows you their J9 before you make your decision.Furthermore, he is more likely to have good strength because while it's a raggedy flop, it was unraised as well and he's acting for all his chips without position to give him any information and with absolutely no reads from preflop action.

I agree that it's not a good time to make a stand, but how exactly does a set have him drawing dead?

[rusmac31]

Thanks for the response, here is what I did and why:I called for the following reasons:1. I put the guy on A10. Since no one raised before the flop, he figured his 10 was good and he had best kicker (which is why he was trying to shut everyone out of the pot).2. I didn't think he hit his set only because I think moving all-in said he didn't want a call, whereas if you had a set you would want a call (+ EV). Samething with 2 pair, 2 pair on this board is pretty good, so making a bet that chases everyone away wouldn't seem like the way to get the best value out of the hand. If I was him and hit the set or hit top 2 pair, I would've bet the pot, hoping for 1 caller.3. Assuming the guy has A10, i figured my 2 overcards were good and i had a gutshot straight draw. So I assumed i had 10 clean outs.4. Based on 10 clean outs, i had a 40% chance to win the pot on the turn or river.5. The pot was giving me 1020 for a 510 bet (2-1).6. Given that I was shortstacked (5x bb), i didn't think i would get a better opportunity in the next 4 hands (40% chance to win 2-1).7. I calledHypothetical, if you knew the guy had A10, would you call or fold?

[Awful]

Chip_and_a_Chair said:

I agree that it's not a good time to make a stand, but how exactly does a set have him drawing dead?

oops, missed the gutshot. 4 outer.

[gobears]

rusmac31 said:

Thanks for the response, here is what I did and why:I called for the following reasons:1. I put the guy on A10. Since no one raised before the flop, he figured his 10 was good and he had best kicker (which is why he was trying to shut everyone out of the pot).2. I didn't think he hit his set only because I think moving all-in said he didn't want a call, whereas if you had a set you would want a call (+ EV). Samething with 2 pair, 2 pair on this board is pretty good, so making a bet that chases everyone away wouldn't seem like the way to get the best value out of the hand. If I was him and hit the set or hit top 2 pair, I would've bet the pot, hoping for 1 caller.3. Assuming the guy has A10, i figured my 2 overcards were good and i had a gutshot straight draw. So I assumed i had 10 clean outs.4. Based on 10 clean outs, i had a 40% chance to win the pot on the turn or river.5. The pot was giving me 1020 for a 510 bet (2-1).6. Given that I was shortstacked (5x bb), i didn't think i would get a better opportunity in the next 4 hands (40% chance to win 2-1).7. I calledHypothetical, if you knew the guy had A10, would you call or fold?

If I knew that he had A10, I would call since you were the short stack and the pot odds dictate a call. Of course if you don't hit, you're out which should also be factored in.It's tough for me to put him on a specifc hand because of the scarcity of information; he called pre-flop and then went all-in post flop when first to act. He could have pocket 8's, pocket 2's, 10 8s, KQ, AJ, AQ. Any of those hands takes away some of our outs.

[Abbaddabba]

The pot is 500 after the flop. He bet 510 to you. 510 more for you to call. Total of 1520 for 510 more chips. Essentially, you're putting in 1 chip for a pot of 3, when broken down - or being paid 3 to 1.You need to at least have a 1/3 chance to justify it from an EV perspective. You need to have MORE than a 1/3 chance to justify the call if you're to give survival play any weighting at all.Even supposing you had an absolutely incredible read on him and "put" him on ace/10, you made what should have been an obviously bad call.But then, "putting" someone on one specific hand with such little information is pointless. There's no way that you could have such an accurate read with so little information. The fact that he went all in for double the pot (approximately) with 4 other people still to act would suggest that he DOES have something decent (either a better draw than you, or a made hand), unless he's an extremely weak player.

[rusmac31]

Abba,Help me understand your point:Pot odds are bet 510 to win 1520.Thats 2-1. I need to win 33% of the time to break even.If i have a 40% chance to win, how is that -EV?You are correct, I did have little information regarding what he had but given he went all-in. I honestly thought he had top pair, top kicker.But I've put someone on a hand before and been totally wrong. :-) I agree with the above poster, calling with QJos in the long run is not the best play pre-flop, I should've moved all-in or folded (thanks for the input).Given he went all-in and was semi short stack, I don't think he would've had a set or top 2 pair. At that point of the tournament, I would think he would've made a bet that had a chance of 1 or 2 callers (ie. bet the pot).Thanks for the input.

[Smasharoo]

1. I put the guy on A10. Since no one raised before the flop, he figured his 10 was good and he had best kicker (which is why he was trying to shut everyone out of the pot).Random silly guess.2. I didn't think he hit his set only because I think moving all-in said he didn't want a call, whereas if you had a set you would want a call (+ EV). Samething with 2 pair, 2 pair on this board is pretty good, so making a bet that chases everyone away wouldn't seem like the way to get the best value out of the hand. If I was him and hit the set or hit top 2 pair, I would've bet the pot, hoping for 1 caller.I push with a set here if I'm him. Lots of people push with a set here to protect against straight draws.3. Assuming the guy has A10, i figured my 2 overcards were good and i had a gutshot straight draw. So I assumed i had 10 clean outs.Random silly guess.4. Based on 10 clean outs, i had a 40% chance to win the pot on the turn or river.IT's unlikely you have 10 clean outs here much of the time, but whatever.5. The pot was giving me 1020 for a 510 bet (2-1).6. Given that I was shortstacked (5x bb), i didn't think i would get a better opportunity in the next 4 hands (40% chance to win 2-1).Only reasons that make any sense at all.

[Abbaddabba]

Quote

If i have a 40% chance to win, how is that -EV?

You didnt have a 40% chance of winning that hand after the flop unless you had a perfect read. Even an incredible read is never perfect, and you had almost no information to even know THAT much. You had less than that. You had 10 outs, with two cards to go - but 6 of those 10 outs are not truly "safe". The probability if hitting your J/Q minus the joint probability of your jack or queen hitting ALONG with another ace and ten hitting is what the value of those 6 "outs" actually are. But anyways, the real reason you were disfavored (i might have approximated the PR slightly less, by overestimating the joint probability) is because of the greater likelyhood of him being on something else.For example, hitting jack is 3/45 + 3/44 or 13.5%, but the true value is a few %s below that. In all actuality, it's closer to 10%+ for both the jack and queen. Along with your 18% chance at hitting the straight draw, and a 38% (or a bit more) chance of taking the hand, KNOWING that he had an A/10 would give you a marginally favorable EV. But again, that's probably the worst hand that you could put him on for that all in call.Every other combo of cards that would seem like a plausible all in move would have been even better than A/10. The weighted average of all probable moves would be even worse than the probability of you outdrawing an A/10 in that situation.

[rusmac31]

All,Thanks for the input. You've given me some various ideas on how to play it next time.Thanks again!