54 replies to this topic

[Damone]

Seems everyone on here is making money playing poker. Nobody ever loses. Amazing. Saw this posted on another site by a poster. Makes a LOT of sense.The bottom line of Texas Hold 'em Poker is this. You have a slight chance of quitting a winner at No Limit if, after winning a gigantic sum of money in a lucky session or series of sessions, you never play again. If you play it long enough, you will be a big loser. Paradoxically, the Hold 'em variant that requires less skill, limit, is, by it's very structure and the nature of gambling, IMPOSSIBLE to win long term. If you play it long enough, you will emerge a big loser. Paradox corollary number 2 : the higher the limit, the longer you can maintain the illusion of long term victory, because higher limits are somewhat more coherant to read and therefore easier to play. The reason for the inevitability of long term loss is, despite all the books and theoretical approaches, despite tremendous discipline and knowledge of the game, despite only choosing to play games where conditions are "optimal" is simple enough: The vast majority of hands you will be dealt are terrible and will not improve. Since, regardless of how much money you have , the inexorable attrition of the rakes and blinds will force you to play hands other then AA, and force you to call with "good draws", combined with the reality that you will constantly be called with several hands, one of which will frequently beat you, makes the game IMPOSSIBLE to win long term at any limit. Yes, in a few situations (AA against one opponent, flopping quads, or top pair with the nut draw, and making the draw on the turn with no pair out etc.), you will usually win. But how often does this happen? Usuallly you look at 50 hands in a row like J2 offsuit while your money trickles away, calling or raising with 88 and seeing a flop like AKT that gets raised and rereaised, or playing JT diamonds and seeing a 2c3cAc flop and get bet in front of you, or finallly getting KK and an ace flops. Or getting your preflop capped AA called by 49 that then goes on to flop 2 pair or make a second pair on the river. And it would be nice if you only had one person call with a hand like 49. But people call any hand with an ace or that is suited, and if one terrible hand doesn't beat you, another one surely will. And how often have you seen some character holding the lucky 3 or 7 to make a bottom straight and beat your flopped trips? Sound all too familiar? So you move up limits to get rid of some of those people only to find that they are still there but now instead of calling with 37 offsuit, they are reraising preflop with it. (Still, this is easier for you, because your JJ just got golden, all that's required is a better nervous system.) The few times your good hands hold up will never compensate all the busted draws (despite the wonderful odds you were getting, and that the book you are reading this week written by some supposed genius has advised you that the hand that you just lost with was a gift from God.) And never forget the rake and blinds, and the truly horrific draw-outs that kill you, and always seem to be there despite the biblical texts you read. The reason you have a chance of quitting a winner at No Limit (although if you play that variant long enough you will go broke or amass huge debt) is because the added leverage you get being able to bet enough to bluff successfully will hold off the inevitable eventual disaster long enough to quit while you are ahead, if and only if, you get LUCKY at the right times. I realize that "theory" demands that you believe, as an article of religious faith, that poker is a skill proposition, and that if you can choose the perfect table with the perfect suckers that you can read like a book offered in kindergarden, and that you play certain hands in certain ways, that the odds will take care of themselves, that, like a casino, you will have the long term edge. and this edge "MUST" statistically oblige the laws of probability to assert themselves in your ultimate favor, it does not work that way. You will be beaten by the above mentioned characteristics that these immutable laws can not compensate. The magazines and books and cable TV shows paint a very different picture, as one would expect, to support the industry, and your good buddy that "always wins" is now in court on a some "schmuck vs. jerk" case, and is now asking if he can crash at your place, and is in your refrigerator, but still going to the casino and "winning", but you know very well from your own experience and the fact you have never actually met a real live long-term winner, that the above is the stone cold truth. So, stop blowing money you earned or inherited. Stop blowing the rent and social security checks. Stop selling the jewelrey. It's a lost cause. Are you tormented by the notion that there are a handful of unbelievably rare tournament players that have been winners for years? And that you are as smart as they are? If such people exist, are they really winners? You jnow that how? Second, if they really are ahead, are you tormented by the fact that you aren't Bill Gates or Clint Eastwood too? Or that you haven't won the state lottery yet? The odds are better that you will win the Lottery then that you will win long term at hold 'em. You will go through phases where you adjust your approaches to the game and they will all lose. You will convince yourself about all sorts of things over the years, you will keep exquisite records, and you will still lose. Give yourself a break, just give it up and let the promoters find someone else to influence.

[Verdimme]

Hmm if you think like this, you better stay away from the poker table, because there are alot of things that you don't understand. If you don't mind, i keep playing :-) P.S. That DN guy is a damn lucky guy

[ufcraig21]

I stopped reading after the 7th paragraph...out of what seemed like 50, I think thats pretty good odds....anyway...who gets good cards in only 1 out of 50 hands?This person doesn't play poker, doesn't speed nor have sex without a condom. I feel for him and his unsually small bit of tunnel vision.

[whoomprat]

That was entertaining. As creative as the argument on 2+2 about being able to get a 5 of a kind in Hold 'em because you 'share' cards.Good work kid.

[Mattnxtc]

well the novel of a post would be correct if nobody ever put new money on to a site. The rake would win in the end since all the money woudl be raked off...The problem is that people continually put money into sites and continually reload. That allows you to stay ahead of the rake if you are good. Now is the variance? of course there is...AA isnt 100% against any hand. I know this for a fact after my nice down swing. But the odds say that in the long run aces will win more than they lose...so will kings, queens and so on. Of course u get down into the marginal hands and it becomes a lot closer on if you can win in the long term. But if you dont play the hands that are -ev, break even with the marginals, and of course win with the strong hands..how do you not come out ahead? finally yes the uneducated player loses in the long run b/c they dont understand how to play poker. PS: it wanted to stop reading after i read that limit was the less skillful game but i was laughin so hard i thought id look to see if there were any other jokes

[screech]

Damone said:

I have a $50K work bonus from my job hitting my checking account next Friday. I am seriously thinking wiring $25K to my on line account and just seeing if I can play with the big boys. I always complain to myself after a bad beat saying, "If I only had the bankroll". "If I only could risk $1000 with top pair when I know the huge stack is trying to connect his flush draw...." You know the routine...calling a big bet with pocket Ks when there is an Ace on the board.....but you fold cuz you have no stack

Damone said:

No_Neck said:

I think you are better off with scratch off tickets, buy them all in a row.

I think you need to be leg sweeped.See you all at the tables. I opened up an account on Stars called "Big Stack Attack". You'll see me high rolling at the big tables next week.Onward

Damone said:

$6,800...poof. Gone. I do have a massive hangoverPoker is luck. Lost $2200 on ONE hand with 10s over 9s, only to see this guy turn over a str8 flush he rivered.I am retiring from poker.

Funny how you can convince yourself of one thing, then when it doesn't work out, blame it on bad luck, etc. If at first you don't succeed, it can't be your fault...

[ThatPkrGuy]

What a waste of time...Thanks for those minutes i'll never get back.....Obv this person knows very little about poker and bankroll managment.Or..He just came off of the worst bad beat streak in the history of poker lol :roll:

[Mattnxtc]

Quote

I have a $50K work bonus from my job hitting my checking account next Friday.I am seriously thinking wiring $25K to my on line account and just seeing if I can play with the big boys. I always complain to myself after a bad beat saying, "If I only had the bankroll". "If I only could risk $1000 with top pair when I know the huge stack is trying to connect his flush draw...." You know the routine...calling a big bet with pocket Ks when there is an Ace on the board.....but you fold cuz you have no stack

oooo that was him i forgot about that. Yeah its real smart to take a lot of money and play out of ur ability against better plays and then complain about bad luck. We all warned him what would happen b/c he just wasnt good enough. So dont blame anybody else but urself for beign so full of urself that you didnt take the time to realize that you werent good enough for those stakes

[mrdannyg]

it may seem like people never lose, because the vast majority of posts are about wins. that's mostly because people prefer to talk about wins than losses. it is a common misconception that people talk as if they never lose on this site. however whenever there is a poll about wins and losses, plenty of people post that they are losing players.as for the article it is simply wrong. it is most certainly possible to win in the long run in poker, especially in no limit. i won't get into why, but hopefully someone with a few extra minutes on their hands does us that favour.daniel

[Sushiman]

Damone said:

I played for way too much money on a whim and blew it all like an idiot. It's poker's fault.

I shortened it for you.

[Socko669]

biggest.moron.ever.

[gooch]

Losing is for losers, I only get bad beats.

[PAYforUSC]

ufcraig21 said:

This person doesn't play poker, doesn't speed nor have sex without a condom. I feel for him and his unsually small bit of tunnel vision.

You forgot to add that he watches the news at 8,9,10 & 11pm

[NoSup4U]

If I had 50 hands in a row of J2, I would be down a total of 5bb and 5sb, which I wouldn't exactly call a catastrophy....clearly the OP isn't patient enough to wait out the bad runs for the good runs.And since this thread doesn't really have a point, and I've been wanting to show it off, here is a run of hands I had recently. Hand 1 is an arbitrary hand I started counting at:Hand 1: I'm dealt AAHand 2: ATHand 4: AAHand 7: 22Hand 11: QQHand 13: QQHand 15: AAHand 17: QQHand 24: KKHand 29: AQHand 36: AAHand 39: ATHand 42: 77Hand 43: ATHand 48: AKHand 57: JJMark

[kid315]

I'm almost convinced that the AI in poker websites has a predetermined winner for the hand if that person holding that hand plays it correctly. I.E. having middle pair and not calling pot sized bet only to have someone else call it and the turn makes the set you folded, or the str8 you folded pre flop. I;ve seen this too many times to count. idiots calling a raise and a reraise in front of them with J 9 off and catching the flop for a str8 when they really shouldn't have been in the hand to begin with cracking the pocket aces or kings.

[mrdannyg]

kid315 said:

I'm almost convinced that the AI in poker websites has a predetermined winner for the hand if that person holding that hand plays it correctly. I.E. having middle pair and not calling pot sized bet only to have someone else call it and the turn makes the set you folded, or the str8 you folded pre flop. I;ve seen this too many times to count. idiots calling a raise and a reraise in front of them with J 9 off and catching the flop for a str8 when they really shouldn't have been in the hand to begin with cracking the pocket aces or kings.

you are "almost convinced" wrong. sorry.well actually, you are right except for the term "AI". and the term "predetermined" is also a misnomer.nothing is predetermined, nor is there any AI. the hands are dealt randomly, or in such a way that is in all possible senses insignificantly different from randomness. nothing is predetermined except that people will play their cards stupidly, thereby allowing for the very long-term profits that the OP says are impossible.your post and the OP's imply two opposite conclusions. i'll let people be convined by whichever they choose.daniel

[Abbaddabba]

What i think people fail to realize is that, if a draw is 10% to hit, you sort of have to accept that .... you know, ONE IN TEN TIMES, ITS GOING TO HIT!When the collective table VPIP is hovering in the 70's, you there are going to probably be several long shot draws per hand. So the solution is simple. Move up in the limits. The fewer the fish, the easier it will be to beat the games.

[HoosierAlum]

Abbaddabba said:

What i think people fail to realize is that, if a draw is 10% to hit, you sort of have to accept that .... you know, ONE IN TEN TIMES, ITS GOING TO HIT!When the collective table VPIP is hovering in the 70's, you there are going to probably be several long shot draws per hand. So the solution is simple. Move up in the limits. The fewer the fish, the easier it will be to beat the games.

LOL.To the OP:I think it is impossible to beat poker as well. Im just super lucky and I happen to make consistent profit month after month. Thanks to your enlightening post I will now start playing the lottery because I never came to fully realize how lucky I truly am.

[custom36]

I never lose. Why? Because I can dodge bullets baby!