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everlasting downswing


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#1 project240

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Posted 08 November 2005 - 08:51 PM

For the last 2 months, my game has felt so weak. I go through the same motions all the time, but lately it just hasn't been working for me.I'm normally a $3/6 or $2/4 player, not big stakes... I try to get in about 20ish/hours per week, sometimes more. Lately, I have been thriving off tournaments, which has helped to keep my bankroll above ground. Anyways, my limit game has suffered immensely (sp?).After dropping about 600BB at $3/6, I dropped down to $2/4, proceeded to lose another 450BB there before dropping down to $1/2. After tilting (can you call it tilt when it happen weeks later) off another couple hundred BBs here, I moved down yet again and still can't beat .50/1.00. I'm embarassed to say I actually play poker right now.Fortunately, I have cashed in a couple tournaments ($1200/$900/$1680) during this extended downswing so my bankroll isn't completely gone yet, however, I feel like if I don't change something then I might as well quit for now.Poker has been profitable for me for 18 months of online play, this is my 1st really extended down time and it is making me sick.I'm not really sure if I should be changing my gamestyle, which has stayed very similar for a very long time. I've reread almost every book I own (SS2, theory of poker, low limit-jones, advanced poker, etc, etc) but I can't really say it's helping right now.I'm taking this week off (other than Saturday to play in a couple bigger tourneys) and am going to play a lot of Xbox to get my mind off this. I know none of you have really seen me play, but do you think I should be altering my game, trying something new?Any input is greatly appreciated.A dejected pro240

#2 project240

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Posted 08 November 2005 - 08:51 PM

Mattnxtc said:

pro240 - 1. do you have poker tracker? if so what are your stats? 2. start posting some of ur hands so that we can look at how ur playing...its usually a lot easier for others to see ur flaws3. what books have you read?


#3 Mattnxtc

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Posted 08 November 2005 - 08:58 PM

2 books i particularly am high on which you should check are in the right order: 1. small stakes holdem by sklansky,malmuth and company2. Weighing the Odds in Holdem by King Yaoboth are great books and will really improve ur game. IM still in the middle of reading the 2nd book but wow the info they will give u is incredible

#4 project240

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Posted 08 November 2005 - 09:01 PM

Yeah, I have PT... here's some stats from my last 12,000 hands.VS$IP - 18.97PF Raise - 4.58Att to Steal Blinds - 9.51Went to Showdown - 32.46Won at Showdown - 66.24I'm going to go through some hand histories and post hands tomorrow here.As for books, I've read Hold 'Em Poker - David Sklansky, Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players - Sklansky & Malmuth, Getting Started in Hold'em - Ed Miller, Winning Low-Limit Hold'em - Lee Jones, HOH 1&2, plus a couple helmuth books, etc...There's probably a few more, but that's all I can think of off the top of my head. It's frustrating being where I am right now. When I reread books, I experience such Deja'vu (obviously, I guess). I don't quite know the books word for word, but everything I reread I know I already apply to my game. Maybe I just need time off... Time heals all wounds, but, right now this one feels pretty deep.pro240

#5 GodOfEntropy

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Posted 08 November 2005 - 09:10 PM

maybe we could get a "micro-limit strat table" going and have discussions afterwards - if we take it seriously and don't nutbar, it could be very beneficial

#6 akishore

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Posted 08 November 2005 - 09:20 PM

you are clearly waaay too weak/tight.1. not playing enough hands preflop, but that is not an issue YET.2. not raising enough preflop. this isn't close. you should be at MINIMUM 7% - 8%. norm is at about 10%, better players can squeak out more profits by raising this to 11% - 12%.3. you need to post your postflop aggression factors. flop aggression, turn aggression, river aggression and total postflop aggression (uncheck the box that includes preflop number). my guess is these will be too low.4. it's tough to say from just the numbers you give, but because your won at showdown % is sooo insanely high, you are folding waaay too much on the river. this is just a guess, but i'm fairly confident it's true.5. overall, your postflop play most likely sucks. don't take offense. but, it's probably the blatant truth that you're not nearly as good as you think you are. you are far too passive, and because the vast majority of money in this game is made/lost after the flop, your "downswing" is probably not really as drastic a dose of luck as you think it is.solution: you desperately need to read "small stakes hold 'em" by ed miller (2+2 publishing). this is ideal for the player who knows what they're doing and are in the classic weak/tight stage such as yourself. it will teach you to go beyond beating the game--it will teach you to crush it, by constantly attacking, attacking, attacking.good luck,aseem
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#7 Mattnxtc

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Posted 08 November 2005 - 09:35 PM

aseem...isnt the weak/tight method what lee Jones would recommend though? I havent read the book just what ive heard around here. If so he would be playing the way Lee Jones has said to play...I do agree that he is way to tight preflop...Normal vpip should be around 20-21. So he is definately missing out on some hands.like i said...I think it comes down to what system he is following...Small stakes holdem details a more aggressive strategy that could be worth lookin at

#8 project240

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Posted 08 November 2005 - 09:52 PM

Aseem,Thanks for the reply. Your comments speak loud and clear. I need some brutal honesty. I've always thought of myself as a winning player (mostly because I always have turned a profit), but I clearly need some work. Here's some more numbers.Aggression FactorFlop - 0.92Turn - 1.56River - 1.29Overall - 1.19When Folds HandNo Fold 10.25Preflop 78.60Flop 6.98Turn 2.69River 1.48Let me know what other numbers are beneficial. Another problem of mine is that I don't completely understand all the facets of PokerTracker. I benefit from the obvious things, but I think I'll spend some time in the PT forums to learn more about it, so I can use it to a greater advantage.To - GodofEntropyI'd definitely be interested in a strat table. I could use more constructive criticism.Thanks again for the replies... please keep them coming.Aseem, small stakes hold 'em" by ed miller is one book I don't think I've read, but I'll definitely pick it up soon.pro240

#9 project240

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Posted 08 November 2005 - 10:04 PM

Mattnxtc - I haven't heard of that second book you recommended, but I'm going to go find it to. Learning new concepts always helps. I think I do play too weak/tight recently, this is probably a big leak for me. Aseem, in one of your previous threads you wrote about losing a $400 pot (I think to a gutshot?) not that it matters, but you said it's not the money, it's why now, why me? Kinda the same thinking on my part. I hate losing big pots not so much because of the money, but because I know that 9 times out of 10 I win it. But, this time this little ******* decides to call my 3 bet on the turn only to hit one of his 2 damn outs on the river. I do Tilt occasionally (pretty much at some point every session), I'll sit out a couple hands and am able to refocus and not change my style because of it. So I don't think I"m tilting away too much hopefully.I think another problem I have is my blinds play. Actually, I know it needs a lot of work. MP raiser, folds around to me in the BB with J9. Pending my read is how I'll play this, but I know I have a problem getting away from this hand on a 9 high flop, even if I believe he may have queens. Anyways, I'm going to get some sleep and think about everything a little more. I'll post again in the morning. Thanks very much for the help. It is greatly appreciated.pro240

#10 pokerplayer24

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Posted 08 November 2005 - 10:41 PM

Quote

4. it's tough to say from just the numbers you give, but because your won at showdown % is sooo insanely high, you are folding waaay too much on the river. this is just a guess, but i'm fairly confident it's true.5. overall, your postflop play most likely sucks. don't take offense. but, it's probably the blatant truth that you're not nearly as good as you think you are. you are far too passive, and because the vast majority of money in this game is made/lost after the flop, your "downswing" is probably not really as drastic a dose of luck as you think it is.
Not to be an ass but is a 1k + bb downswing even possible if you're beating the game?Honestly I advise relearning post flop play completely. 3/6 2/4 1/2 .50/1 games can be beaten by players who play mediocre to bad post flop but play good preflop. Looking at your #'s preflop looks alright, so i'd really take a long hard look at your post flop play.

#11 akishore

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Posted 08 November 2005 - 10:51 PM

Mattnxtc said:

aseem...isnt the weak/tight method what lee Jones would recommend though? I havent read the book just what ive heard around here. If so he would be playing the way Lee Jones has said to play...
matt,do yourself a favor and go browse that book next time you're in the bookstore. saying that lee jones recommends a weak/tight system is suuuuch an understatement.oh my god, he has you folding A :) 6 :D on a board of A :D 2 :) 2 :club: after someone raises preflop and bets the flop. argh, way more examples that just reek of horrendous i-want-to-rip-my-head-off scared money play.yes, OP probably sucks at postflop play partly because he read lee jones. but, i think his postflop play is worse than even the book recommends. he really NEEDS to read sshe.aseem
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#12 Mattnxtc

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Posted 08 November 2005 - 10:59 PM

haha i have heard the horror stories about the Lee Jones book which is why i never even considered reading ityeah sshe is a must for any limit player...while 1k downswings arent extremely likely if you are a good player they can happen. Often what i think is the case is that somebody starts off as a solid but as the downswing continues they start turning fishy in an attempt to force pots to try and catch back up. His stats make him seem like a mouse type player who to some extent has to catch cards in order to be a winner. SSHE should correct that

#13 akishore

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Posted 08 November 2005 - 11:03 PM

your entire postflop aggression is sooo insanely low.just to give you an idea, my numbers are about:stars 2/4 (generally tight/passive games):flop - 3.48turn - 3.85river - 1.52overall - 2.84party 2/4 (generally loose/aggressive):flop - 3.13turn - 2.81river - 1.68overall - 2.63party .50/1 (generally loose/passive):flop - 4.05turn - 3.36river - 2.42overall - 3.36pacific 3/6 (generally loose/aggressive):flop - 3.39turn - 3.28river - 1.74overall - 2.84pacific 2/4 (generally loose/passive):flop - 3.78turn - 2.99river - 1.74overall - 2.89anyway, the other numbers don't matter nearly as much, but one number you should post is your fold to river bet %. i am hoping it's not above 40% (even 40% is pretty high).by far, the most important thing for you to do is to read SSHE. please don't put this off, it is the bible for this game. i have read it four times, my copy is so torn up and highlighted all over the place and some sections have fallen off the binding because i had flipped to it so often.i haven't looked at it in probably three or four months, but believe me, the foundation it sets in you is utterly solid.good luck,aseemp.s. i notice a pretty big leak--your flop aggression is really low (the lowest of all three streets), while your turn aggression is really high! in general, the trend should be, flop highest, turn medium, river lowest. you need to get MUCH more aggressive on the flop, and tone down your turn aggression a little bit. you might be making too many mistakes on the turn, and since the bet doubles, those mistakes are high in magnitude and add up fast. perhaps you slowplay way too much?
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#14 jayboogie

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Posted 09 November 2005 - 11:41 PM

1k BB downswings are pretty much impossible for anyone that's actually beating the game. Most likely you suffer from weak tight disease, which others have mentioned as well. Your showdowns won % is way to high, 66% means your folding way too many winners. Ideally, it should be probably anywhere around 50%. I can't comment on much else though wthout having seen you play as I'm not much of a stats person when it comes to poker.

#15 TJ_Eckleburg

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Posted 10 November 2005 - 05:03 AM

As has been suggested... a 1000BB downswing is statistically not possible for someone beating the game. You have leaks, so let's admit it and plug them.Admitting it is the first step towards recovery.We're all here to help learn and teach. We're here to help you, Daniel Negreanu, everyone lurking, and each other.Post hands. TONS of them. Start new threads like it's your job. Nobody will get ticked off if they're converted and logically presented.If the money is starting to bother you, I'd recommend dropping down in stakes too. 2/4 is a good arbitrary turning point between the difference in "micro-limit" and "low-limit" and the games really do play differently.a) Micro-limit is mind-numbingly easy to beat over a significant sample size with just a few key adjustments to your gameb) Confidencec) If the money is bothering you, it won't do you good to play with scared money.I won $10k in 3 months from multi-table tournaments and figured I was on my way to the World Series. Then I started losing, it didn't stop, and I came here.
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#16 project240

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Posted 10 November 2005 - 02:51 PM

Thanks TJ,I'm going through PT right now and will post a few hands shortly. Thanks




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