post flop winning percentages...
4 replies to this topic
Posted 08 November 2005 - 01:58 PM
In short, how do you work out your chance of winning with 2 cards to come?To give you an example, today in a tourney, heads up with a player after some preflop raising, I had A Q on a flop of 3 Q 10 . He raises I reraise, He rereraises, and I push all in with TPTK and nut flush draw. He calls me with K K for an overpair. Long story short, I lost the race, and was kicking myself, because I figured I was well behind on the flop (9 clubs, 3 Aces and 2 Queens make my hand=14 outs not including back-door straights), but I ran it through an odds calculator, and it told me I was in fact a 51% favourite!So guys, what's the magic formula?Cheers, Luke.PS, Extreme Newbie alert, so please be gentle... :-)
Posted 08 November 2005 - 02:01 PM
Rule of 2 and 4:on flop = number of outs *4on turn=number of outs *2ps obviously this is not exact, but gives a good estimate.flush draw is actually 35 % not 3614 outter is 51% not 52.....pretty close
Posted 08 November 2005 - 02:51 PM
You might wanna use a programme called pokerstove... Very good for running these things through and eventually, you just get used to these percentages.
Posted 10 November 2005 - 07:31 AM
Familiarize yourself with percentages for common hands, there aren't that many (these are if you see the turn and the river):8 outs (open-end straight draw or pairing either of two overcards): 31%9 outs (flush draw): 35%14 outs (o-e straight draw w/2 overcards): 51%15 outs (flush draw w/2 overcards):54%If you are quick with math here's how you do it:8 outs - 47 cards left after the flop, 39 out of 47 don't help you or 83% 46 cards left after the turn, 38 out of 46 don't help you or 82%So you lose 83% * 82% of the time .83 *.82 = .685. You win the rest .315 or 31.5%.Hope this helps...
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