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is it variance, or do i just suck? stats check-up


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#1 TheCinciKid

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Posted 01 November 2005 - 09:54 PM

So far, I'm beating the hell out of .5/1 limit (4.6 BB/100 over 12k hands) and I'm holding my own at 1/2 (1.95 BB/100 over almost 10k hands), however, I've taken some shots at 2/4 (so far without the full 300 BB bankroll) and I haven't been very sucessful (I'm currently at .24 BB/100). The lack of success at 2/4, coupled with the much lower winrate at 1/2 has caused me to start doubting my game a little bit, so I want to make sure that there aren't any glaring holes in my 2/4 stats. Here are my 2/4 stats through roughly 3k hands:VP$IP - 16.7VP$IP from SB - 27Folded SB to steal - 79.17Folded BB to steal - 67.74Att. to steal blinds - 24.37Won $ WSF % - 33.44Went to SD % - 28.57Won $ at SD - 60.80PF Raise - 9.41Postflop AF - 2.06Now, I recognize that this is a small sample size, and that not much can be proven from 3k hands. However, Now that I have 300 BB for 2/4 I want to make sure there aren't any glaring holes here before I start trying to play it again. I understand that the best way to find and fix leaks is through posting hand histories, so I plan to do that too, but firstly I just want to make sure that these stats don't show any major leaks.
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#2 Stylin_Fish

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Posted 01 November 2005 - 09:58 PM

Don't play outta your limits.
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#3 TheCinciKid

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Posted 01 November 2005 - 10:22 PM

Stylin_Fish said:

Don't play outta your limits.
And here come the bankroll police. I don't think I really ought to have to explain myself, but since I posted this thread I will. I had a very aggressive plan for moving up through the limits as quickly as I could (which I have since scrapped). This plan involved taking shots when I had 200 BB. It may not have been the smartest thing in the world to do, but I did it, I have these stats and I would appreciate honest feedback on them.
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#4 Sluggo

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Posted 01 November 2005 - 10:37 PM

Playing beyond your bankroll is fine as long as you have discipline and emotional control.

#5 Stylin_Fish

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Posted 01 November 2005 - 10:44 PM

You have a plan to play outta your limits and complain when you fall back down. I'm confused.
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#6 Sluggo

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Posted 01 November 2005 - 11:43 PM

No matter what limits you play at relative to your bankroll, if you have an edge, it's +EV. The primary problems stem from misidentifying your edge.

#7 TheCinciKid

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Posted 02 November 2005 - 12:02 AM

Stylin_Fish said:

You have a plan to play outta your limits and complain when you fall back down. I'm confused.
I really don't want this thread to become about bankroll management. I'm not complaining about anything. I want to make sure that I'm not doing anything majorly wrong. There are many people who would say that it's ok to take shots outside of the 300 BB rule. Regardless of any of that though, I no longer plan on moving up outside of the 300 BB rule, so it's a non-issue. I would appreciate any constructive thoughts though.
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#8 acesfullmike

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Posted 02 November 2005 - 12:58 AM

i would take the shot and play until you are down to 150BB and then move down if you are consistantly losing. if you are playing with rakeback plus some bonuses you could even give it a run with 250BB. I would seriously stress moving down if you are getting beat. post hand histories where you lose big pots and try to notice when you were beat.

#9 Forrest Crunk

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Posted 02 November 2005 - 08:39 AM

TheCinciKid said:

Stylin_Fish said:

You have a plan to play outta your limits and complain when you fall back down. I'm confused.
I really don't want this thread to become about bankroll management. I'm not complaining about anything. I want to make sure that I'm not doing anything majorly wrong. There are many people who would say that it's ok to take shots outside of the 300 BB rule. Regardless of any of that though, I no longer plan on moving up outside of the 300 BB rule, so it's a non-issue. I would appreciate any constructive thoughts though.
i am at 2/4 now for good after taking continual shots at it with 200BBs, probably took me about 3 or 4 times of having to move back down before it stuck. all it did was kind of underscore the necessity for a bankroll of at least 300 BBs, for me it is the only way to remove the 'scared money' factor completely from my game; it's hard to play your best aggressive game when you take a common run-of-the-mill swing and it zaps away 1/3 of your roll. i'd say you are not doing anything majorly wrong, our stats look pretty similar (though my VPIP is a tad lower, around 15), some say the went to SD% could be a little higher, around 31-32, mine hovers between 26-30 and i'm now currently doing 2bb/100 at 22k hands. the more hands you play there, the more comfortable you will be... 2/4 doesn't seem to be that much different than .50/1 other than being more aggressive (at party that is), so table selection plays a bigger part in your game now than it did down there, but if you were beating .50/1 then you should do fine at 2/4; all it takes is a couple good nights in a row to put you there for good. post back when you get to 10k, and post some hands....peace




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