17 replies to this topic

[digitalmonkey]

Let's pretend Teemu Selanne didn't score 76 goals as a rookie in the 1992-93 season. The record for goals in a season by a rookie was 56 by Mike Bossy. Alexander Ovechkin currently has 8 goals in 11 games which puts him on pace for over 59 goals. Do you think he will beat Bossy's total of 56 goals? How many do you think he will score this season? Anyone think he has a legitimate shot at the Maurice Richard Trophy?

[ajs510]

I think Ovechkin will get 40+, but if Jagr keeps his pace up he'll run away from everyone. I'm putting the +/- for the Richard Trophy at +67, with the number of players scoring 50 or more at +10.

[gruven]

Interesting question, but there is one HUGE variable: The refs have to keep making the calls, and the players would have to be dumb enough not to adjust if they do continue calling everything. I believe Jagr has 8 PP goals of 11. Ovechkin, 3 of 8 are special team goals, etc..... So i predict a downturn in scoring.......

[ajs510]

Yeah, but you have to take into consideration that a lot of the penalties taken potentially saved a goal (grab a guy as he's heading to the net, obstruction through the neutral zone...etc). I don't see the scoring slowing down at all, if anything teams are getting more in a groove with each other and it's leading to *more* goals scored.

[gruven]

How does hooking a guy as he skates through the neutral zone save a goal?

ajs510 said:

Yeah, but you have to take into consideration that a lot of the penalties taken potentially saved a goal (grab a guy as he's heading to the net, obstruction through the neutral zone...etc). I don't see the scoring slowing down at all, if anything teams are getting more in a groove with each other and it's leading to *more* goals scored.

[ajs510]

gruven said:

How does hooking a guy as he skates through the neutral zone save a goal?

ajs510 said:

Yeah, but you have to take into consideration that a lot of the penalties taken potentially saved a goal (grab a guy as he's heading to the net, obstruction through the neutral zone...etc). I don't see the scoring slowing down at all, if anything teams are getting more in a groove with each other and it's leading to *more* goals scored.

Gosh, I dunno...by stopping a breakaway or an odd-man rush?

[gruven]

You're right, for sure, there are occasionally penalties that are 'smart' penalties, but you HAVE to admit that 90% of the calls in the early part of this season, have been away from the puck, and fill the category of 'unnecessary penalty' quite nicely. If you don't believe me, I'll send you a nice little package of the last 100 penalty calls or so. See how many you think are necessary.

ajs510 said:

gruven said:

How does hooking a guy as he skates through the neutral zone save a goal?

ajs510 said:

Yeah, but you have to take into consideration that a lot of the penalties taken potentially saved a goal (grab a guy as he's heading to the net, obstruction through the neutral zone...etc). I don't see the scoring slowing down at all, if anything teams are getting more in a groove with each other and it's leading to *more* goals scored.

Gosh, I dunno...by stopping a breakaway or an odd-man rush?

[Ottawa_Biatch]

Pavel Bure retired

[digitalmonkey]

Ottawa_Biatch said:

Pavel Bure retired

Really?

[WestcoastCanuck]

Over half of the penalties I have seen are some player doing some stupid/useless hook or hold. These penalties, individually, dont take away a scoring chance. If they weren't called, however, the pace of the game would slow down a lot. So if the refs keep making calls on these hooks etc., two things will happen. 1.) As many PP as we are seeing now, which would help jagr, ovechkin etc. 2.) A completely wide open game, which should still help Jagr etc.

[WestcoastCanuck]

Post moved to this thread: http://www.fullconta...p=520706#520706

[sleuthis]

While we are talking about rookie recordsPeter Statsny holds the record for most assists by a rookie with 70.Sidney Crosby is on pace for 80.

[ajs510]

sleuthis said:

While we are talking about rookie recordsPeter Statsny holds the record for most assists by a rookie with 70.Sidney Crosby is on pace for 80.

Must be another of those "except for Gretzky" stats, because Gretz put up 86 assists in his first NHL season. Unless his WHA tenure counts against him the way it did for the Calder trophy....

[mrdannyg]

ajs510 said:

gruven said:

How does hooking a guy as he skates through the neutral zone save a goal?

ajs510 said:

Yeah, but you have to take into consideration that a lot of the penalties taken potentially saved a goal (grab a guy as he's heading to the net, obstruction through the neutral zone...etc). I don't see the scoring slowing down at all, if anything teams are getting more in a groove with each other and it's leading to *more* goals scored.

Gosh, I dunno...by stopping a breakaway or an odd-man rush?

this is not accurate. of course a lot of penalties stop legitimate scoring chances, but there are more scoring chances because of the new rules, not just more penalties.with the new rules, there is no reason to think a larger ratio of penalties are being taken that prevent scoring chances (and probably it is a smaller ratio). therefore there are the same amount or more scoring chances not including power play opportunities, and more powerplay opportunities.having said all that, i think ovechkin will score less than 40 goals and no one will score 60. its the beginning of the season, guys get off to fast starts. Crosby could get close to 70 assists though, so long as Gonchar gets going and Lemieux doesn't get hurt.and if Gretzky's WHA stats prevented him from winning the Calder trophy (Hideki Matsui anyone?) which is awarded for the best rookie, than it seems to follow that it would also prevent him from holding a rookie record.Daniel

[serge]

Let's pretend Teemu Selanne didn't score 76 goals as a rookie in the 1992-93 season. The record for goals in a season by a rookie was 56 by Mike Bossy. Alexander Ovechkin currently has 8 goals in 11 games which puts him on pace for over 59 goals. Do you think he will beat Bossy's total of 56 goals? How many do you think he will score this season? Anyone think he has a legitimate shot at the Maurice Richard Trophy?

why do we pretend Selanne's record year didnt happen.

I predict Ovechkin scores 52 in his rookie year..

[mrdannyg]

Gosh, I dunno...by stopping a breakaway or an odd-man rush?

this is not accurate. of course a lot of penalties stop legitimate scoring chances, but there are more scoring chances because of the new rules, not just more penalties.
with the new rules, there is no reason to think a larger ratio of penalties are being taken that prevent scoring chances (and probably it is a smaller ratio). therefore there are the same amount or more scoring chances not including power play opportunities, and more powerplay opportunities.

having said all that, i think ovechkin will score less than 40 goals and no one will score 60. its the beginning of the season, guys get off to fast starts. Crosby could get close to 70 assists though, so long as Gonchar gets going and Lemieux doesn't get hurt.

and if Gretzky's WHA stats prevented him from winning the Calder trophy (Hideki Matsui anyone?) which is awarded for the best rookie, than it seems to follow that it would also prevent him from holding a rookie record.

Daniel

Proof that I have been writing with unnecessary specificity, almost incomprehensible syntax and making poor predictions for nearly 4 years.

[ajs510]

I think Ovechkin will get 40+, but if Jagr keeps his pace up he'll run away from everyone. I'm putting the +/- for the Richard Trophy at +67, with the number of players scoring 50 or more at +10.

What a donk.

[serge]

Proof that I have been writing with unnecessary specificity, almost incomprehensible syntax and making poor predictions for nearly 4 years.

lol..Its really fun looking back..