akishore 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 3/6 fiveutg folds, i open in CO with Q J , button folds, sb three-bets, bb calls two cold, i call.sb is a NIT/ROCK/TIGHT-ASS.(9 sb) Q J 8 sb bets, bb folds, i raise, sb three-bets, i call (y'know, intend to raise almost any turn).(7.5 bb) Q sb bets, i raise, sb calls.(11.5 bb) A sb thinks for eight hours and checks, i ...aseemEDIT: the river was an A . that's an important part of this hand because it means opponent no longer has A K in their range of flop three-betting hands. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 ...have a boat and bet-raise-call.why is this tough?AQ raises turn..i don't get the question. :? Link to post Share on other sites
pokerplayer24 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 With the river change i don't like the river. That really drops the 2 possible hands your opponent could have to AA in which he just 2 outered you and KK with or without the d. Link to post Share on other sites
akishore 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 ...have a boat and bet-raise-call.why is this tough?AQ raises turn..i don't get the question. :?AA doesn't three-bet the turn. this person's three-betting range from the SB is extremely small. their three-betting range on the flop makes it smaller yet.aseem Link to post Share on other sites
akishore 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 i just noticed that i mistyped the river. my bad.aseem Link to post Share on other sites
akishore 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 fwiw, i would say that this person three-bets AA-KK from the small blind preflop, and *maybe* AK, and QQ to a lesser extent still.on the flop, i thought AA/KK is most likely, then AdKd/QQ and rarely AdKx or AxKd.since QQ is impossible on the turn, and now AdKd and AdKx are impossible on the river, that means opponent usually only has AA or KK.aseem Link to post Share on other sites
akishore 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 With the river change i don't like the river. That really drops the 2 possible hands your opponent could have to AA in which he just 2 outered you and KK with or without the d.lol, i didn't like the river either!also, i'm wondering how often KK without the diamond pays off a river bet. i mean, it's hard to imagine many people folding to one bet here, but i think this specific person *might*. i really have no whether the sb will fold KK without a diamond here to a bet, but i think it should be estimated as a small percentage, maybe 10%? this also changes things because then a value bet loses more value.aseem Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 fwiw, i would say that this person three-bets AA-KK from the small blind preflop, and *maybe* AK, and QQ to a lesser extent still.on the flop, i thought AA/KK is most likely, then AdKd/QQ and rarely AdKx or AxKd.since QQ is impossible on the turn, and now AdKd and AdKx are impossible on the river, that means opponent usually only has AA or KK.aseemyou have perfect reads.you are good at mathcalculate the odds and decide what best river play islet us know.we'll be over here.Next time fold pf since this guy hade you horribly dominated, apparently, with your read. Link to post Share on other sites
akishore 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 fwiw, i would say that this person three-bets AA-KK from the small blind preflop, and *maybe* AK, and QQ to a lesser extent still.on the flop, i thought AA/KK is most likely, then AdKd/QQ and rarely AdKx or AxKd.since QQ is impossible on the turn, and now AdKd and AdKx are impossible on the river, that means opponent usually only has AA or KK.aseemyou have perfect reads.you are good at mathcalculate the odds and decide what best river play islet us know.we'll be over here.Next time fold pf since this guy hade you horribly dominated, apparently, with your read.lol, i can feel the truckloads of sarcasm dripping from your post.fwiw, i actually did seriously consider folding to the preflop three-bet, but thought that wouldn't be right. i figured i would just play postflop really cautiously if it didn't hit me in the face.ok, quick math.AA - 3 combosKK - 6 combosbut if villian folds KK even 1% of the time, a value bet is -EV assuming i get checkraised by AA.i could value bet if i fold to a checkraise, but bet/folding is so wrong here with a hand with as much showdown value as this one.on the other hand, do i get checkraised by KdKx here? i don't think i do, but assign it a small percentage, and a value bet might be +EV.i really have no idea, and that's why i posted it.aseem Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 but if villian folds KK even 1% of the time, a value bet is -EV assuming i get checkraised by AA. huh?He'd have to not call your bet a lot more than 1% to make it -EVWhat am I missing?Is he checking AA here?Isn't he a straight forward (rock) playerSo if he checks AA for fear of QQ, he's not c/r'ing.At least BET.If raised and your reads are that solid, call. My reads are never THAT solid.[/b] Link to post Share on other sites
speedz99 145 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 Bet/call.Easy peasy one two threasy.Not betting is weak. Even if it did turn out he has AA. Link to post Share on other sites
akishore 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 but if villian folds KK even 1% of the time, a value bet is -EV assuming i get checkraised by AA. huh?He'd have to not call your bet a lot more than 1% to make it -EVWhat am I missing?we gotta be good here 67% of the time to bet. with combos of AA/KK, we are good exactly 67% of the time, which means a bet is 0 EV. so if he folds KK even 1% of the time, a bet is -EV. does that make sense?Is he checking AA here?Isn't he a straight forward (rock) playerSo if he checks AA for fear of QQ, he's not c/r'ing.tight doesn't always = straightforward. and i don't think the person is checking in fear of QQ, lol... they're checking to checkraise me (if they have AA, i mean). Link to post Share on other sites
akishore 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 Bet/call.Easy peasy one two threasy.Not betting is weak. Even if it did turn out he has AA.she had Q7o, she was on mega raging tilt (i had no idea) and was looking to check/raise-cap me if i bet out. i missed so much value!!!jk.aseem Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 Bet/call.Easy peasy one two threasy.Not betting is weak. Even if it did turn out he has AA.you make me smile at work..that's tough to do Link to post Share on other sites
pokerplayer24 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 but if villian folds KK even 1% of the time, a value bet is -EV assuming i get checkraised by AA. huh?He'd have to not call your bet a lot more than 1% to make it -EVWhat am I missing?Is he checking AA here?Isn't he a straight forward (rock) playerSo if he checks AA for fear of QQ, he's not c/r'ing.At least BET.If raised and your reads are that solid, call. My reads are never THAT solid.[/b]The problem here is that if he has AA he is checkraising costing you 2 bb while you gain 1 bb vs KK. Imo I dont think you possibly get a call in this spot by KK no diamond. So as weird as this seems having a boat I might just check behind. Gaining one from KK with the Kd. Losing 2 v AA so just not +ev. Link to post Share on other sites
MrNiceGuy 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 He wouldn't 3-bet AQ vs. a CO raise 5-handed? In that case, I'd bet/call. 3 ways he can have AA, 6 ways he can have KK, 3 ways he can have AxKd. I suspect his pause means he has the Kd. Link to post Share on other sites
akishore 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 He wouldn't 3-bet AQ vs. a CO raise 5-handed? In that case, I'd bet/call. 3 ways he can have AA, 6 ways he can have KK, 3 ways he can have AxKd. I suspect his pause means he has the Kd.no, i don't think they three-bet AQ. in fact, she berated me earlier for three-betting her with AQ. i think her words were "lol, how typical... raise with AQ off, and party rewards you."and i don't think they go that crazy postflop with AxKd.i also think the pause is more significant than people are really giving it credit for, but i could be wrong.aseem Link to post Share on other sites
pokerplayer24 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 I don't see someone pausing with the Kd. I mean if the diamond hits this is a pretty straight forward spot to bet/call. With AA i think someone would be more likely to try and checkraise here. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 yes I now get the 1% -EV thing..never thought of it like that. BET! Link to post Share on other sites
akishore 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 yes I now get the 1% -EV thing..never thought of it like that. BET!lol! it's like you see the logic of checking, but choose to just blatantly ignore it.this isn't a mechanical game! this isn't a "this is the easiest bet of my life." i'm showing you that the obvious play can easily be wrong here.aseem Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 BET Link to post Share on other sites
MrNiceGuy 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 I don't see someone pausing with the Kd. I mean if the diamond hits this is a pretty straight forward spot to bet/call. If she has KxKd, there are only 4 hands Aseem could reasonably hold that she could beat (the four possible KQ's). It would be a pretty straightforward check/call, IMO, but she might have to think back through the hand to come to that conclusion. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 you either bet this right now!; or never tell me to value bet TOP Pair on the river again. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 Aseem, You say that if he folds KK 1% of the time, then the bet has no value.This is correct if you plan on calling a raise.According to your read, you should never call a raise because it always means AA.So a bet/fold would be more profitable than checking behind or bet/call. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 Aseem, You say that if he folds KK 1% of the time, then the bet has no value.This is correct if you plan on calling a raise.According to your read, you should never call a raise because it always means AA.So a bet/fold would be more profitable than checking behind or bet/call. I hope this is sarcasm.If it is, it's epic!If it's not..it's epic too..but in a bad way. Link to post Share on other sites
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