fold like little girl (lhe)

[econ_tim 0]

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converterPreflop: econ_tim is CO with 8:spade:, 8:heart:. 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.Flop: (6 SB) T:club:, J:heart:, 8:club: (3 players)SB bets, BB calls, econ_tim calls.Turn: (4.50 BB) Q:diamond: (3 players)SB bets, econ_tim folds, I had reads. Even so, can I fold here.

[Sysvr4 0]

I'm calling (not raising tho) this at 6-max. You have the best hand often enough to do so even with the 4-card straight, I think. When you don't have the best hand, you obviously have outs.Jeff

[screech 0]

No.

[econ_tim 0]

Hypothetically, let's say I'm 100% sure I'm behind.Let's also say I can win 2 more BB on average when I catch on the river and fold the river unimproved. I'm also pretty sure that at least one of the players has paired the board. So I have nine outs and my implied odds are 9.5 to 2, meaning I should call.However, can you really fold the river for one more bet if you call the turn? I know you would if you were 100% sure you were beat, but when it comes to the river, the pot will be 11.5 BB or more, and it is hard to fold a set for those odds.Still I think I should have called.Even though I was drawing to one out on the flop (results, baby).

[screech 0]

For one bet? No.BTW, I probably play this hand very fast on the flop.

[econ_tim 0]

For one bet? No.BTW, I probably play this hand very fast on the flop.

That's something else I was wondering about. On such a coordinated flop that both villains like, I know raising gets money in while I have an edge, but maybe I can more money in with a bigger edge if I wait for the turn.Dunno.BTW, regarding calling turn, I forgot about the approximately 1 out I get from the 9s that split the pot.

[econ_tim 0]

So if I can't fold the river for one more bet, then my full odds are around 9.5 to 3 when I don't fill up, and when I make my full house, let's say I get an extra BB when I'm fill up.If we say I always win with a full house or better, than EV of calling is(9/46)*10.5BB + (37/46)*[p*9.5 - (1 - p)*3.5]where p is the probability that I win unimproved.If the above equation is right, and if I didn't make a math error, then I need to win unimproved 15.7% of the time or more for calling to be +EV.I'm surprised at that result, so someone tell me if I'm wrong and why.

[Actuary 3]

I'm getting p~7.5% approx.hmm.

[econ_tim 0]

I'm getting p~7.5% approx.hmm.

You're probably right if you're using a TI-85. Mine is at home so I'm using the ghetto Windows Calculator.

[Actuary 3]

I'm getting p~7.5% approx.hmm.

You're probably right if you're using a TI-85. Mine is at home so I'm using the ghetto Windows Calculator.

Excel.

[screech 0]

If the above equation is right, and if I didn't make a math error, then I need to win unimproved 15.7% of the time or more for calling to be +EV.

The equation is right.You just forgot that we have 10 outs to improve to a FH or better not 9.This means we only to win UI around 6.66% of the time.

[econ_tim 0]

You just forgot that we have 10 outs to improve to a FH or better not 9.

I'm discounting one out because I'm pretty sure SB has at least paired the board.

[screech 0]

You just forgot that we have 10 outs to improve to a FH or better not 9.

I'm discounting one out because I'm pretty sure SB has at least paired the board.

If you assume that, you have to knock off one of the unknown cards so that the total unknowns is 45 not 46.BTW, I did the math wrong in my previous post. Using (10/46) and (36/46), I got p = 6.66%.

[econ_tim 0]

OK.I found an error in my formula.I think it should beEV = (9/46)*10.5BB + (37/46)*(p*9.5BB - (1 - p)*3BB)And I'm getting 0.069 as the critical value of p.Screech, I thought about eliminating one of the unknown cards, but I don't know which pair the guy has. If I change the denominator to 45, then the answer is similar.Anyway, we agree that I need to win unimproved about 7% of the time if I plan to call/call?Do you think I can have a reliable enough read to fold the turn then?Or do you think I should change my strategy to call the turn and fold the river UI?

[screech 0]

Screech, I thought about eliminating one of the unknown cards, but I don't know which pair the guy has. If I change the denominator to 45, then the answer is similar.

It's not the same as discounting outs. Basically, since we are assuming we win 100% of the time when we hit full house, it doesn't matter which pair he has if he has one. He still loses with any pair, so it's not like you prefer one over the other. If you think he has a pair, you can knock down the unseen cards to 45. It really doesn't matter though, as the answer will always be close to the same.Just think about if you had the ace high flush draw, and one of your opponents, who never lies says that he is on a flush draw as well. You don't know what two cards he holds, but it doesn't matter because if you make your flush you win. Your odds of hitting would be (7/44) not (7/46).

Anyway, we agree that I need to win unimproved about 7% of the time if I plan to call/call?

Absolutely.

Do you think I can have a reliable enough read to fold the turn then?  Or do you think I should change my strategy to call the turn and fold the river UI?

I guess against some opponents you know you have to improve here to win. If you know, for instance, that you have to improve 100% of the time to win (9/45), you don't have the correct odds to continue so you should just fold the turn. If you thought you had a 5% chance to win, mathematically it would be best to fold the turn. Realistically, since you can't be that accurate in your guesses, you should probably call down.

[KDawgCometh 2]

you should still pump the flop as much as possible. THe board sucks, but with two opponents in it you will have a redraw to any draw that they make on the turn. By pushing your edge that you have on the flop you allow yourself the odds to see the river in this pot(which I think is tremendously important)

[akishore 0]

i think tim's flop call was fine. his reasoning is sound... push a bigger edge with double the money on good turn cards.i don't think the turn decision is that close; it's a pretty bad fold in my opinion. you're getting basically 4-to-1 assuming SB calls, and that's enough to chase the river. with the overlay you get in terms of implied odds when you hit, you can afford to call a bet on the river unimproved also.aseem

[KDawgCometh 2]

i think tim's flop call was fine. his reasoning is sound... push a bigger edge with double the money on good turn cards.

just think about how many bad turn cards there will be and how many good turn cards there will be, looks like a muhc better situation to raise the flop if you ask me. There are 21 bad cards to hit on the turn, while there are 26 good cards to hit on the turn, that is way too much to dodge for me to want to wait until the turn, This flop must be raised

[jayboogie 0]

Easy flop raise, look at the board, not many cards are going to look safe on the turn. You also have to realize that if you wait till the turn to raise, you will have given proper odds for them to chase any kind of draw since you are not directly to the left of the bettor and can not make it 2 bets cold for the bb to call. Besides, sb may 3-bet, allowing you to cap. The sb's 3-bet may also knock out the BB in between if he has some kinda inside straight draw, which protects your hand. You need to be able to read the board in situations like this, raising the flop should be automatic here.