97 replies to this topic

[DanielNegreanu]

Ok, so it's been a while since the last quizz question, but as you can tell I haven't been playing much. Well today I played in an online no limit tournament when the following hand came down:Blinds: 50-100Stage: Level 5 One player limped for 100, a middle position player made it 350, and I called on the button with 7 7. The flop came J J J and the pre-flop raiser bet 500. I had about 2500 left and my opponent had about 1700 left after betting the 500. I called the bet leaving myself with 2000. The turn came a King and my opponent checked, as did I. The river came another King for a final board of J J J K K, meaning that I was now playing the board. My opponent checked the river, so with 1950 in the pot what would you do?(You know nothing about your opponent at all)

[goose]

I think this is an easy check, hoping for the split. I have him AK/AQ/AA/KK/QQ here... possibly AJ or 1010 etc. but it seems unlikely considering he bet out (some tournament background information might be nice here).If it's a 10 person game you're going to give the MP credit for a decent holding, raising to what I assume is 7xbb. I think it's 50/50 here whether he has a hand better than the board. The flop raise smells like an AK, and when the king hit it looks like he's trying to trap you, because it's definately a safe place to slowplay or hope to induce a bluff. The river is an even better spot for him to hope to induce the bluff. From his persepective I'd be thinking really how can my opponent improve unless he already holds the J or another J hits the board to split it (or the unlikely situation that you hold AA or KK and didn't re-raise)? I'm willing to let my opponent peel off a free card if I'm holding AK or AA or obviously KK. I'm actually kind of surprised you just called the flop raise, but then again your tournament history looks a little better on paper than mine. I don't like risking my tournament in this situation, I'm happy to split the blinds and the 350 UTG's chipped in if it's a split, and even happier that I saved myelf my tourney if he does have AA, KK, or AK.This is not even mentioning the fact that even if he doesn't have it, there's still a chance he's going to call your bet/all-in because he think's the board's the best hand. I think this is just uneccessarily risking your stack.Let's look at it this way:Scenario 1:He has the better hand, you bet, he calls, you're in really rough shape now.Scenario 2:He has the better hand, you check, he takes the pot and you're still in decent shape.Scenario 3:You bet, he folds, and you win a 2000 pot instead of the 1000 you would have taken by checking and splitting.Scenario 4:You bet, he has the board as his best hand, but he calls anyway hoping for the split. You get the 1000.Only 1 out of the 4 scenarios makes you money, and it's only 1000 net

[nutzbuster]

I'd just check this one. It seems to be an all-in or check situation. And a 1000 bet could only end up with him coming back over and putting you all in anyway. Too weak?Best...

[JBradburn6]

Definitely depends on the buy-in, I'll assume it was fairly large and that the player is at least average. The check on the turn makes me think pocket pair lower than kings, although he could be sneaky with like an AK knowing that there really aren't any bad cards that could hit.I would estimate you're about 70% to split here, 30% that he has a better hand. (Kind of conservative, may be more like 80-20 here)If you go all in (as opposed to checking):Scenario 1: He has you beat (he would call) = -1700 (.3 probability given = -510)Scenario 2: You go all in and it would be a split, but he folds = +1000(*.35) = +350 [Note: I assumed if you're splitting about half the time he'll call with that board and half the time you'd split; also you're only winning an extra 1000 since if you check it's a split]Scenario 3: You go all in and he calls, and it's a split = Even Net: -160 EV for pushing.This is based a lot on rough estimates, and the math is actually worked out, but just from guessing I'd probably estimate it to be -EV to push and check.Note: I rounded the 1950 to 2000 to make the calculations easier.Anyone else have a completely different viewpoint on this one?

[kilgoretrout]

I chose bet 1000, and if checkraised i would call expecting to chop. If he had you beat with either a jack or king, he should have bet and probably would have (thinking you would call expecting a chop). I would imagine he would have bet the turn since you called the flop, and the turn helped his hand (if he is still ahead of you). So it looks like an almost certain chop, so the decision is really just about which bet is more likely to fold him. Personally i think the 1k bet looks more like a value bet, and is still enough to cripple him if he calls and loses. While all in looks like "We chop so I bluff!". It really depends on how you think the opponant will interpret different bet sizes, so it's hard to answer, but i like betting 1k, all in, and checking, in that order.

[sinatrasgirl19]

I would say check. Because you know, unless he is holding queens or kings you are bound to split.

[spacemonkey]

Check. While it's pretty unlikely that he can beat the board it's extremely unlikely he's going to fold, period. He'd be getting 2-1 on his money and can only lose to the case jack, one of two kings or pocket aces. We haven't shown any strength in the hand to suggest that we have the better hand so just check it and take the chop. Plus we're DN here, there's no need to risk a ton of chips in a situation with very little positive expectation and the potential to almost go broke.

[DanielNegreanu]

Wow, this appears to be avery interesting quiz thus far, with votes for every option! In a few days I'll share with you all my opinion on the hand.

[goose]

I'd be extremely interested to see an explanation of how checking isn't the correct call.

[DanielNegreanu]

Well I have a lot to add, but I don't want to sway anybody just yet...

[TJ_Eckleburg]

DanielNegreanu said:

Well I have a lot to add, but I don't want to sway anybody just yet...

I'm intrigued to hear what you have to add... but I can't see any reason to do anything besides check.Pushing into the nuts would suck.So would betting and getting checkraised all in.He might fold... but meh, is it really worth it to find out?

[screech]

I'm suprised no one has said fold. We only have a full house, seven kicker. We gotta let this one go. :roll: I am usually just checking here. You're check on the turn will probably induce your opponent to call with anything. Since betting rarely gains anything, just check.

[Sysvr4]

Looks like a push to me. Your opponent is not pot committed and has plenty of chips left to fold here. You have shown no aggression on the hand at all, so unless he's exceptionally tricky (or knows us better than we know him) he's not checking the nuts to us on the turn and river.Morever, you have him covered so we're crippled but not out if he does have the nuts. I think it's an easy push to avoid the split. Only significant argument against a push here, IMO, is that you're risking 1700 to win 975. But I think he folds here enough to be worth it and I for one don't fear the nuts.Jeff

[TJ_Eckleburg]

Sysvr4 said:

Looks like a push to me. Your opponent is not pot committed and has plenty of chips left to fold here. You have shown no aggression on the hand at all, so unless he's exceptionally tricky (or knows us better than we know him) he's not checking the nuts to us on the turn and river.Morever, you have him covered so we're crippled but not out if he does have the nuts. I think it's an easy push to avoid the split. Only significant argument against a push here, IMO, is that you're risking 1700 to win 975. But I think he folds here enough to be worth it and I for one don't fear the nuts.Jeff

I see your point, I really do.But you only have to be wrong once. And people do some goofy stuff online. If he has a jack, he knows you DON'T have a jack.

[screech]

Sysvr4 said:

Looks like a push to me. Your opponent is not pot committed and has plenty of chips left to fold here. You have shown no aggression on the hand at all, so unless he's exceptionally tricky (or knows us better than we know him) he's not checking the nuts to us on the turn and river.Morever, you have him covered so we're crippled but not out if he does have the nuts. I think it's an easy push to avoid the split. Only significant argument against a push here, IMO, is that you're risking 1700 to win 975. But I think he folds here enough to be worth it and I for one don't fear the nuts.Jeff

Not the nuts, but he could have a king or AA.Again, even if he doesn't he's probably going to call with all that money in the pot.

[Entrepeneur]

Seems to me he's now thinking chop. Preflop raise sounds like 10s or QQ to me (but I'm a hack player).Bets on the flop (staying with his preflop raise routine).He bets out and you call. If the math is right, his flop bet of 500 was into 800 in the pot. The King hits on the turn and he checks. Sure, he could be slow playing, but I don't think so.The river comes another King and he checks. His only two aggressive bets were preflop and after the flop and then he checked up. Seems like some sort of mid-high pair.If he's got a hand and he checks on the river, it seems a weak play. If he's got the board beat, and you checked the turn, there's no indication that you may try and steal the pot on the river, so there's no reason for him to think you're going to bet on the river.I don't think he has the board beat. Seems like he may be a little scared of what you hold, but it's hard to know without seeing what your table image is (was).I think he could be concerned that you hold a king, so I would push that bet and see what he does. I don't really think you're beat, it could just be a chop, but why give him half the money when he was not aggressive outside of defending his pre-flop raise.Just my thoughts...But hey..I play the .25/.50 no limit game.But..I did buy into it with $13,000.LOLI'm only kidding. Just enjoying the 'unique' opinions of your reading practice session.Can't wait to hear if I'd have just lost my money.Good for the guy if he slow played quads or A/K

[GCP]

Push. He doesn't have a king or a jack.

[bigedjr17]

screech said:

I'm suprised no one has said fold. We only have a full house, seven kicker. We gotta let this one go. :roll: I am usually just checking here. You're check on the turn will probably induce your opponent to call with anything. Since betting rarely gains anything, just check.

We're last to act on the river.. and our opponent has checked already. Folding seems like a slightly weak play IMHO :wink:

[Entrepeneur]

screech wrote:I'm suprised no one has said fold. We only have a full house, seven kicker. We gotta let this one go. Ok..I think that's my favorite response yet. I had to go back and read it a couple of times.Full house 7 kicker is awesome! Yeah I think if your full house JJJKK with an 8 kicker, you could certainly push, but a fold is an option.LOL...that's funny. I'm kind of waiting to see if anyone posts anything else about that.Thanks...I needed that this morning.

[blakheart]

The math guys are all saying check, but I think they are wrong. The preflop raise indicates some strength, but it is a standard size raise. He then does a normal continuation bet, but Daniel scares him by calling.The key is the double check on the turn. If the the villian had AA, AK or any Jack or king he is really disciplined to sit on both the turn and the river. He has to expect Daniel to check the river again, not allowing him to reap the rewards of his good fortune. MOST online players will not check the turn and the river if they have what they think is the best hand. Based on that, I would expect a value bet out of the villian if he really had Daniel beat. On the flip side, a $1000 bet from Daniel looks like a value bet to the villian. It looks like Daniel got tired of waiting for the Villian to bluff, and is hoping for a call by keeping the bet small. I think you really put the test to him if he is also playing the board. The only fear is if he is a really timid player who has a king or aces and is afraid of the jack, but coming over an early position limper doesn't seem like a weak player. AND, if he is really that weak he will not push back.