over playing ak??

[NorthPacific 25]

Am I overplaying AK, or am I just playing them badly, it's getting to the point that I almost hate to play it at all. But it seems that when I do get it, I can't seem to lay it down. Here is a recent example. Critique please.Game #707805109 - $0.25/$0.50 Texas Hold'em - 2005/01/31-15:37:29.0 (CST)Table "Austral" (real money) -- Seat 9 is the buttonSeat 1: fourxfour ($14.55 in chips)Seat 2: Zeatrix ($9.35 in chips)Seat 3: qrupafjlzxcv ($4.98 in chips)Seat 4: NorthPacific ($14.00 in chips)Seat 5: cardacer ($10.23 in chips)Seat 6: danbach01 ($7.95 in chips)Seat 7: ryan2205 ($24.22 in chips)Seat 8: XLR82DMAX ($4.15 in chips)Seat 9: KeiserMateo ($8.00 in chips)fourxfour: Post Small Blind ($0.10)Zeatrix : Post Big Blind ($0.25)Dealing...Dealt to NorthPacific [ As ]Dealt to NorthPacific [ Kc ]qrupafjlzxcv: Call ($0.25)NorthPacific: Raise ($0.50)rcardacer: Fold yan2205: Call ($0.50)XLR82DMAX: Call ($0.50)KeiserMateo: Fold fourxfour: Call ($0.40)Zeatrix : Fold qrupafjlzxcv: Call ($0.25)*** FLOP *** : [ Jd Th 9d ]fourxfour: Check qrupafjlzxcv: Bet ($0.25)NorthPacific: Call ($0.25)ryan2205: Call ($0.25)XLR82DMAX: Fold fourxfour: Call ($0.25)*** TURN *** : [ Jd Th 9d ] [ 4c ]fourxfour: Check qrupafjlzxcv: Bet ($0.50)NorthPacific: Call ($0.50)ryan2205: Fold fourxfour: Call ($0.50)*** RIVER *** : [ Jd Th 9d 4c ] [ 5c ]fourxfour: Check qrupafjlzxcv: Bet ($0.50)NorthPacific: Fold fourxfour: Fold qrupafjlzxcv: Winner -- doesn't show cards

[pokerplayer75 0]

With ace king you should be raising to 2 dollars. And that's a very dangerous flop. You have to assume that somebody hit something or they're on a draw that they're not going to go away from. If you don't hit your ace king then bet anyways if someone calls or raises you have to lay it down. If someone bets at you raise or fold.

[NorthPacific 25]

Its a limit table so can't raise to $2.

[Eskimo 0]

you should have folded on the flop.

[JFarrell20 1]

This was a tricky hand. I think you had the odds to call on the flop, but it's really close on the turn. Probably worth folding for .50I'm giving you 7 outs on the flop (QQQQ,AAA)Not giving you the three kings b/c whoever has a queen will then have the straight. I think the Aces may be safe though for top pair/top kicker. You played it right pre-flop, it's close, but I think you had the odds to call on the flop. The turn I probably would have folded b/c the odds were close to call, but I think I may have to discount one of your queens as an out anyway b/c its very likely that someone else is playing it. And the flop was scary anyhow, so I would have folded for 50cents.

[Guest]

There is a beautiful thing about limit.You can take alot of pots if you just keep firing.That guy may have had nothing and taken the pot because you did not call.I have seen this and done this so many times in limit.It is a beautiful thing. Keep firing like you have the nuts and 1/2 the time your opponent(s) will fold to rags.Lots of chasing folders in limit

[Smasharoo 0]

Turn call's not great, rest is fine. Folding the flop is terrible.

[KramitDaToad 0]

Turn call's not great, rest is fine.  Folding the flop is terrible.

I don't know Smash, I think there is an argument to be made for folding the flop.The flop is highly co-ordinated with a 2 flush.It's fairly safe to say that AK needs to improve to win this hand, and with 9-1 pot odds it looks like an easy call.However you've only got 3 clean outs, being the non diamond Queens.A's & K's (assuming TPTK is enough to win) make straights possible, as well as 2-pairs likely. The Q gives the straight but also makes the flush or flush redraws possible.With 2 players still to be heard from, on a flop that can hit a lot of hands hard, it's possible that the flop bet will be raised by those still to come.Yes, it's low limit but there were 3 cold callers & an UTG limper who are likely to have hands with cards from the top end of the deck

[Smasharoo 0]

It's fairly safe to say that AK needs to improve to win this hand, and with 9-1 pot odds it looks like an easy call. It's more than 9 to 1.It's 11 to 1 when it gets to the poster to call. Raising is better than folding this flop. Folding it is simply horrible.I probably fold the turn.

[KramitDaToad 0]

It's 11 to 1 when it gets to the poster to call. Raising is better than folding this flop. Folding it is simply horrible. Yep, I mucked up the pot-odds, you're right with the 11-1.I also agree with the raise being a good play, but with only 3 clean outs, a dangerous flop, 2 cold callers yet to speak on the flop, not to mention a possible check-raise play from the SB, I think the call is the worst play here.Raise - bestFold - okCall - wrong

[Wilderness 0]

It's 11 to 1 when it gets to the poster to call. Raising is better than folding this flop. Folding it is simply horrible. Yep, I mucked up the pot-odds, you're right with the 11-1.I also agree with the raise being a good play, but with only 3 clean outs, a dangerous flop, 2 cold callers yet to speak on the flop, not to mention a possible check-raise play from the SB,  I think the call is the worst play here.Raise - bestFold - okCall - wrong

You've got 5 clean outs, 3 Q's and 2 A's. Having an A appear on the board isn't going to make anyone's straight because anyone holding KQ already has a straight.I think raising on the flop is the best move, for reasons that people have mentioned and for the fact that it may very well buy you a free card on the turn if you don't improve. If, someone bets on the turn after you haven't improved though, you've got to lay it down at that point.

[KramitDaToad 0]

You've got 5 clean outs, 3 Q's and 2 A's.  Having an A appear on the board isn't going to make anyone's straight because anyone holding KQ already has a straight.I think raising on the flop is the best move, for reasons that people have mentioned and for the fact that it may very well buy you a free card on the turn if you don't improve.  If, someone bets on the turn after you haven't improved though, you've got to lay it down at that point.

I don't see the A's as outs - not because of the straight but because AJ, AT, A9 are all common cold callers at this limit - which would give someone 2 pair. For the player that bet into our pre-flop raiser, I would put him on AJ or 2 pair as not a lot of players at this level will semi-bluff into an aggresor.The other major fact is that with this flop it's highly likely that there is already 2 pair or a set floating around, making A's no good as an out

[Smasharoo 0]

The other major fact is that with this flop it's highly likely that there is already 2 pair or a set floating around, making A's no good as an outThat's silly.Some percentage of the time the A outs will be bad, but certainly not most of the time.Anyone with a Q or an 8 bets this flop from EP.Folding to a turn A here is a good way to lose money.Folding this flop is, again, terrible. You have conservatively at least 5 outs here. Folding this turn if Td comes is equally terrible.Stop folding so many winners in big pots, it loses you money.

[KramitDaToad 0]

That's silly.Nope, silly is taking on a large field, out of position, with nothing more than A high and some long shot drawsSome percentage of the time the A outs will be bad, but certainly not most of the time. ...and sometimes they will be as useless as tits on a bull.Even if its five outs, which is highly optimistic, you need 8.5-1 to call the flop, sure you're getting that. If you hit your Ace though, the number of times that it will be bad (makes someone else 2 pair), not enough (set or 2 pair already in play), or outdrawn on the river (any , K, J, T, 9, 8, 7 is a danger card) produce negative implied odds to make the call wrong. If you get your Ace your going to need to call a big bet on the turn and the riverAnyone with a Q or an 8 bets this flop from EP. In a perfect world - yes, but there are also those going for the check-raise or passive players who do check draws - it is .25/.50Folding to a turn A here is a good way to lose money. We're talking about the flop fold - so this is irrelevantFolding this flop is, again, terrible. You have conservatively at least 5 outs here. As I've pointed out, you've got a player betting into a pre-flop raiser, you're out of position, have 4 opponents and questionable outs to justify the pot-odds, a flop that likely helps the rest of the field more than you and nothing more than A-high. Folding may not be the best play - but it's not terrible. Calling is.Folding this turn if Td comes is equally terrible. Assuming you call the flop as you've suggested, to call a turn bet would at best be giving you 8-1 pot odds (if all players call the flop too). Now even your 'conservative' 5 outs are not getting the required odds. It's unlikely there will be any implied odds either given your position, and the 10d has just only increased the chances that you are drawing dead so it's actually -'ve implied oddsCome-on Smash. You've proven that your a knowledgable and talented player so I'm shocked at this 10d statement.Stop folding so many winners in big pots, it loses you money.So does drawing to 3 outers

[Smasharoo 0]

That's silly.Nope, silly is taking on a large field, out of position, with nothing more than A high and some long shot drawsNot when the pot is this large. Folding in large pots is a common mistake a lot of people make. In fact it's probably the most common mistake most decent players make. They overthink the possible hands they're up against and fold far too many winning hands.Some percentage of the time the A outs will be bad, but certainly not most of the time....and sometimes they will be as useless as tits on a bull.Even if its five outs, which is highly optimistic, you need 8.5-1 to call the flop, sure you're getting that. If you hit your Ace though, the number of times that it will be bad (makes someone else 2 pair), not enough (set or 2 pair already in play), or outdrawn on the river (any Suit: Diamond, K, J, T, 9, 8, 7 is a danger card) produce negative implied odds to make the call wrong. If you get your Ace your going to need to call a big bet on the turn and the riverAgain let me point out the pot size. The potential negative implied odds are meaningless. If you hit an ace, given the pot size, it can be a losing hand MOST of the time and still be profitable to showdown. Understand what I'm driving at? Folding in big pots when you're almost certain you're beat is ussually a mistake because you have to be best so rarely to make it profitable. You're missing that.Anyone with a Q or an 8 bets this flop from EP.In a perfect world - yes, but there are also those going for the check-raise or passive players who do check draws - it is .25/.50In any kind of world. Only in a nightmare world does someone have a set here.Folding to a turn A here is a good way to lose money.We're talking about the flop fold - so this is irrelevantYes, folding the flop is mindbogglingly bad.Folding this flop is, again, terrible. You have conservatively at least 5 outs here.As I've pointed out, you've got a player betting into a pre-flop raiser, you're out of position, have 4 opponents and questionable outs to justify the pot-odds, a flop that likely helps the rest of the field more than you and nothing more than A-high. Folding may not be the best play - but it's not terrible. Calling is.Calling is fine. It's absolutely, positively, unequviocally, vastly superior to folding. LOOK AT THE SIZE OF THE POT. Folding this flop is simply foolish.Folding this turn if Td comes is equally terrible.Assuming you call the flop as you've suggested, to call a turn bet would at best be giving you 8-1 pot odds (if all players call the flop too). Now even your 'conservative' 5 outs are not getting the required odds. It's unlikely there will be any implied odds either given your position, and the 10d has just only increased the chances that you are drawing dead so it's actually -'ve implied oddsLook at the SIZE OF THE POT. Come-on Smash. You've proven that your a knowledgable and talented player so I'm shocked at this 10d statement.I'm shocked that you don't understand that folding the nut striaght to a flush possiblity here is a massive error in a pot this big. The straight has to be good, what, 1 time in 5 to make a profit? Probably less?Are you serious that you think someone has the flush 4/5 of the time??Stop folding so many winners in big pots, it loses you money.So does drawing to 3 outersGood thing this hand doesn't involve any three outers. Folding this flop is bad poker, period. It'd be bad in $10/$20. It's just terrible.

[MrConceit 0]

Folding this turn if Td comes is equally terrible.Assuming you call the flop as you've suggested, to call a turn bet would at best be giving you 8-1 pot odds (if all players call the flop too). Now even your 'conservative' 5 outs are not getting the required odds. It's unlikely there will be any implied odds either given your position, and the 10d has just only increased the chances that you are drawing dead so it's actually -'ve implied oddsLook at the SIZE OF THE POT. Come-on Smash. You've proven that your a knowledgable and talented player so I'm shocked at this 10d statement.I'm shocked that you don't understand that folding the nut striaght to a flush possiblity here is a massive error in a pot this big. The straight has to be good, what, 1 time in 5 to make a profit? Probably less?Are you serious that you think someone has the flush 4/5 of the time??

I agree with Smash on everything but his mistype. He originally mistyped (or missaw the board). He meant a Q , not the T . The Td gives AKo nothing here. With that proviso I think he's 100 percent on here.

[KramitDaToad 0]

Fair enough on the typo - no folding to the Q on the turn - agreed.The point here though is you are simply looking at the size of the pot compared to the call.Yes, Smash I get your point - your argument is that with 11-1 odds you need to call the flop for the occasional occurance that you win with top pair or better.What you are missing though is the fact that to get to the river on this hand you are either going to either need to take the lead via aggression or call 2 big bets.If you think that this hand is not going to be bet on each round, your optomistic to say the best.So to see your A thru to the end you've got 2 big bets to call on top of the flop bet you are currently presented with.Quite simply it's case of pure -'ve implied odds.You miss the turn you fold and lose your flop bet.You hit the Ace and too often you have to call to the end only to lose your flop, turn and river calls.You hit the turn and your Ace is good - you might get action on the turn if 1 pair is good but your not going to get action on the river.On top of all this, based on your position, you are not isolated to just a single bet on each round. The player pushing the action on the flop is on your right. Your going to get hit with a raise from behind that you can't justify calling so many times with this flop.It's not a case of 'oooh look at the pot - its really big, i gotta call.'To get to the end you've got the equivalent of 5 flop bets to call, discounting raises. Factor in the number of times your outs are counterfit or get outdrawn and it's pretty straight forward that a call is a very weak play.This hand can take on 1 or maybe 2 opponents - not 4 cold calling 2 bets pre flop

[Guest]

Is this person in first position someone that "weak leads" with a hand or only on a draw?Are the other two players tight or loose? Are they aggressive or conservative?My answer varies from the scenario.better of .25 = tight and conservativetwo players behind me are tight and conservative?= I RAISE 50% OF THE POT MINIMUM...PROBABLY MORE.If any one of these players is likely to call me I would raise less. But, atleast I have pushed out the people that are tight and foolish(do not understand pot odds)...which is very likely at this level of play.But, if you have studied your opponents then you should know whether or not they will pay to chase regardless of pot odds or if they will chase ONLY IF THE POT ODDS ARE THERE and who is most likely to call.If the last guy is most likely to call, then DO NOT RAISE MUCH because you might end up with more people in the pot than you bargained for.I say do your best TO PUSH OUT THE DRAWS. YOU HAVE TOO. Otherwise you are decreasing your pot odds while decreasing your chance of winning =waste of money.Make them think you have the nuts and the nut flush draw, a set or a NUT FLUSH draw with 2nd pair(A/10s) AND THEY WILL THINK TWICE ABOUT looking for another card.Buuuuut. This is a scary flop. Therefore, knowing the players is MOST IMPORTANT IN THIS HAND ESPECIALLY.I agree with Sam Farha..."You can win the small pots. But, I will take your entire stack in one hand."

[Smasharoo 0]

Hi, it's limit.To get to the end you've got the equivalent of 5 flop bets to call, discounting raises. Factor in the number of times your outs are counterfit or get outdrawn and it's pretty straight forward that a call is a very weak play. We'll have to agree to disagree here. I think it's crystal clear that calling is much, much, better than folding here, raising is probably the best play.I understand your arguments, I just think they're grossly missapplied here.

[jayboogie 0]

I don't know of many players that would fold AK to this flop and if I did, I'd want to play with them. You can't always just assume your beat unless you have the nuts. Anybody can play hands that are the nuts, that doesn't take rocket science to do. That's just foolish to fold AK on a flop like this. I don't care if it's coordinated, your still drawing to the nuts if a Q thats not diamonds hits. A raise would be the best play considering you raised pre-flop, it would have most likely gotten you isolation on the player acting before you and a free card as well.

[Guest]

This is limit?ooops.My comments apply to NL only.Sorry folks...Park's closed...I guess my brain is too.I hope I wake up before my tournament tonight

[KramitDaToad 0]

We'll have to agree to disagree here. I think it's crystal clear that calling is much, much, better than folding here, raising is probably the best play. I've really enjoyed this discussion Smash, and I'll be the first to admit I can flog a horse, dead or otherwise, way too long if I believe I'm right.With that in mind I ran a couple of models on the hand, for calling a flop bet.I assumed 7 outs with all Q's and the 3 A's being correct to call a turn bet with. (The A effects the +/- EV to such a small amount that it doesn't matter)I then took relative win/lose figures for each turn card, for exampleAny non Q or A on the turn is about a 95% loss as it would be rare that it gets checked on the turn, so you fold when its bet and rarely sneak a win if you get to the river.An off suit Q is a 90% win etc etc(I thought this was low for the OS Q - figured it would be 95% at least, but with a board of Jd Th 9d Qs , AsKc is only 92% to win against 2 completely random hands and Jd Th 9d Qh is 90% to win, again against 2 random hands - so against 2-3 opponents with an interest in the flop 90% is actually on the generous side)I then took weighted average wins & loses for each turn card and apply the above factors.The results of this... it's about a net gain of .5 small bets if 2 opponents see the turn to about .7 if 3 come for the ride.Now there is a lot of postulating in the figures but it does give a guide to the EV on the call, which is positive.Now before you start typing 'I told you so...' Smash, there is one more interesting point...If the flop gets raised by one of the 3 players yet to call the flop bet it becomes a -'ve EV of about -.2 to -.4 small bets.As an aside - I hope nobody folds to a flop raise after calling here, that's a guarenteed -'ve EV of 1 small betThis leads to the question, how often will the flop get raised in this situation after you call.If its about 60% or less then calling is correct, if its more than 60% folding is correct.So unless your at a very aggresive table you callLong and short of all this...Your right Smash, I'll concede that muchFair enough, calling is better than folding -but is is a lot closer than I think you suspected.Good discussion

[KramitDaToad 0]

I just thought of one more thing on the way home. (Remember that horse getting a flogging?)The rake...For a small limit table like this one the rake is usually a min of 1 small bet.As the best EV figures were about + .7 small bets, calling has now become a -'ve EV. :roll:

[Snydz9 0]

I agree with Smash, folding the flop is not a very good play, because if oyu hit that queen you can breka someone with the lower straight, so it is worth .50 cents to call, now not hitting the Q on the turn presents you with a tough choice and probably would fold, but it also depends on the read you had on the guy...

[KramitDaToad 0]

I agree with Smash, folding the flop is not a very good play, because if oyu hit that queen you can breka someone with the lower straight

Yes, and I built that very fact into the models I mentioned above...