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#41 whoomprat

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:15 AM

jlgosse said:

He had AA, and ended up flopping an ace, sealing the deal of course.Left with 300 chips after that hand. Ended up fighting back but getting eliminated in 31st.
Don't change you play based on this one hand. You will make money in the long run doing exactly what you did.

#42 PocketRocks

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:15 AM

For me it would really depend on the exact situatuion. The only way I fold here is if he has been a very tight player. Otherwise, I would call. You can't win without taking some risks, and this situation I don't even think there is much risk(unless he has been really tight). If he is a somewhat loose player, he could have any wired pair, AKs, AQs, maybe even AKo, AQo or KQs. The chance of him having AA is very low, he probably has a small pair, putting you on over cards and trying to scare you out of the pot, if you call he might think he has a race situation. But since you are posting this on here, I would say you call and he turns up AA. At those low limits, he could really have anything, I have seen people push it with mush less, daily. I had AKs last night in the BB. Blinds were 100-200, I pushed the rest of my stack of 900 in. Dude called me with J6o and won. Online poker...gotta love it!!! :roll:

#43 TruePoker

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:16 AM

If I was shortstacked, I would call this. Only if I had under 1000 chips before my re-raise.

#44 TruePoker

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:19 AM

PocketRocks said:

For me it would really depend on the exact situatuion. The only way I fold here is if he has been a very tight player. Otherwise, I would call. You can't win without taking some risks, and this situation I don't even think there is much risk(unless he has been really tight). If he is a somewhat loose player, he could have any wired pair, AKs, AQs, maybe even AKo, AQo or KQs. The chance of him having AA is very low, he probably has a small pair, putting you on over cards and trying to scare you out of the pot, if you call he might think he has a race situation. But since you are posting this on here, I would say you call and he turns up AA. At those low limits, he could really have anything, I have seen people push it with mush less, daily. I had AKs last night in the BB. Blinds were 100-200, I pushed the rest of my stack of 900 in. Dude called me with J6o and won. Online poker...gotta love it!!! :roll:
This is 2 chipleaders against each other, this isn't 900 chips at 100 / 200 blinds. This is 4500 + chips each when blinds are 15/30.

#45 jlgosse

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:19 AM

Royal is correct. About half of the players had already been eliminated, as well.But the tourney was only running like 30 minutes, maybe less.

#46 Royal_Tour

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:19 AM

whoomprat said:

jlgosse said:

He had AA, and ended up flopping an ace, sealing the deal of course.Left with 300 chips after that hand. Ended up fighting back but getting eliminated in 31st.
Don't change you play based on this one hand. You will make money in the long run doing exactly what you did.
No he wont,he will lose to AA several times.he he was short stacked, he has no choice. if it was deep, and tables are smaller, of course. If its mid way through and a LAG player with half our chips pushes, of course. auto call.but once again, if we continue to triple our stacks early but call the only other stack at the table with as many chips who came over the top of our re-raise, then we have problems.

#47 jlgosse

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:23 AM

Indeed, not much point to risk a shot at the big money by throwing away potential money on this one hand. Calling in this case is -EV in several spots.Might as well wait for a better time to toss the chips in.

#48 Royal_Tour

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:23 AM

PocketRocks said:

For me it would really depend on the exact situatuion. The only way I fold here is if he has been a very tight player. Otherwise, I would call. You can't win without taking some risks, and this situation I don't even think there is much risk(unless he has been really tight). If he is a somewhat loose player, he could have any wired pair, AKs, AQs, maybe even AKo, AQo or KQs. The chance of him having AA is very low, he probably has a small pair, putting you on over cards and trying to scare you out of the pot, if you call he might think he has a race situation. But since you are posting this on here, I would say you call and he turns up AA. At those low limits, he could really have anything, I have seen people push it with mush less, daily. I had AKs last night in the BB. Blinds were 100-200, I pushed the rest of my stack of 900 in. Dude called me with J6o and won. Online poker...gotta love it!!! :roll:
1st - dont bring the limits into question, we are analyzing the play.2nd - why does he have to be tight to have AA? is it not possible for any player to hold AA at any time during the tourney?3rd - why are we basing our call onthe fact that "the chance is low" and not looking at all the events leading up to this.

#49 whoomprat

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:23 AM

Royal_Tour said:

SO by Royal's logic you should fold AA too, because it is also not bad beat proof.Monkey could have had the same flop action with AA, AK, AQ, AJ, QQ, JJ, hell even AT.Pairs come 6 ways, non pairs come 16 ways. so 6 out of 82 is 7%. He could even have TT or KQ. Bottom line is it's far from likely he has AA.If Tru is correct that an A is a 7:3 dog to KK, i'd take that bet.Bottom line,You have no business trying to post odds refer to my old thread on the chances of a over pair to your pair, there is certain odds that you hold a lower PP to someones over pair. not a guestimate like you assume.And in this case, we are not debating wether he has AA, we are debating if its correct to call an all in here even though we are among top 5 in chips early in a MTT.on and BTW,, finally you are correct, AA isnt bad beat proof. Did i say i fold KK and AA preflop?. no. do i fold KK in this instance? Yes.thank you
I have business posting anything I want, especially rational ways to look at this hand.if he holds only 1 ace, 7:3 is a huge edge. Hmmm, 70% chance that I'm far and away the chip leader and can coast to big money or 30% I go play another. you'll never see odds that good.Folding KK preflop when you know you're giong to be heads up is weak weak weak.

#50 TruePoker

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:25 AM

This isn't just a case of, someone bet out, we raised and we got pushed all in, look at our cards, we have KK, call.This is a case of, the only player with our amount of chips has raise, then pushed our re-raise all in. We have only 300 out of 4500 chips in the middle. This is the same as having 1 chip in the middle and 14 in our stack and then calling just because we have a hand. KK is still only 70% vs Ax. The call would have be +EV if he hasn't got aces, but when we think about Tournament Equity this is an easy fold. (if we fold we are still top in chips, if we call we may not cash).

#51 Royal_Tour

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:25 AM

whoomprat said:

Royal_Tour said:

SO by Royal's logic you should fold AA too, because it is also not bad beat proof.Monkey could have had the same flop action with AA, AK, AQ, AJ, QQ, JJ, hell even AT.Pairs come 6 ways, non pairs come 16 ways. so 6 out of 82 is 7%. He could even have TT or KQ. Bottom line is it's far from likely he has AA.If Tru is correct that an A is a 7:3 dog to KK, i'd take that bet.Bottom line,You have no business trying to post odds refer to my old thread on the chances of a over pair to your pair, there is certain odds that you hold a lower PP to someones over pair. not a guestimate like you assume.And in this case, we are not debating wether he has AA, we are debating if its correct to call an all in here even though we are among top 5 in chips early in a MTT.on and BTW,, finally you are correct, AA isnt bad beat proof. Did i say i fold KK and AA preflop?. no. do i fold KK in this instance? Yes.thank you
I have business posting anything I want, especially rational ways to look at this hand.if he holds only 1 ace, 7:3 is a huge edge. Hmmm, 70% chance that I'm far and away the chip leader and can coast to big money or 30% I go play another. you'll never see odds that good.Folding KK preflop when you know you're giong to be heads up is weak weak weak.
We are only HU because everyone folds.Understand that people can get A's at any time during a tourney

#52 whoomprat

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:25 AM

[quote name='"Royal_Tour"]No he wont' date='he will lose to AA several times.[quote']He will beat all other hands hundreds of times.

#53 whoomprat

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:28 AM

Royal_Tour said:

whoomprat said:

Royal_Tour said:

SO by Royal's logic you should fold AA too, because it is also not bad beat proof.Monkey could have had the same flop action with AA, AK, AQ, AJ, QQ, JJ, hell even AT.Pairs come 6 ways, non pairs come 16 ways. so 6 out of 82 is 7%. He could even have TT or KQ. Bottom line is it's far from likely he has AA.If Tru is correct that an A is a 7:3 dog to KK, i'd take that bet.Bottom line,You have no business trying to post odds refer to my old thread on the chances of a over pair to your pair, there is certain odds that you hold a lower PP to someones over pair. not a guestimate like you assume.And in this case, we are not debating wether he has AA, we are debating if its correct to call an all in here even though we are among top 5 in chips early in a MTT.on and BTW,, finally you are correct, AA isnt bad beat proof. Did i say i fold KK and AA preflop?. no. do i fold KK in this instance? Yes.thank you
I have business posting anything I want, especially rational ways to look at this hand.if he holds only 1 ace, 7:3 is a huge edge. Hmmm, 70% chance that I'm far and away the chip leader and can coast to big money or 30% I go play another. you'll never see odds that good.Folding KK preflop when you know you're giong to be heads up is weak weak weak.
We are only HU because everyone folds.Understand that people can get A's at any time during a tourney
By definition, you are only heads up when everybody else folds.Did anything i say hinge on the fact that A's are available now or later?

#54 jlgosse

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:28 AM

Yes, but based on the information we have, it is much more likely that he has AA, don't you realize this?

#55 Royal_Tour

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:28 AM

jlgosse said:

Indeed, not much point to risk a shot at the big money by throwing away potential money on this one hand. Calling in this case is -EV in several spots.Might as well wait for a better time to toss the chips in.
No Jl. dont say it like that.. I call with KK, i push with KK. but in this exact spot. i fold with KK.As long as we are strong in our tournament NL game, we will be fine by throwing away KK.(p.S. this means nothing, but last night i had AA once, i got no action and won the blinds.) i could have thrown it away and never would have noticed a difference)

#56 Royal_Tour

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:29 AM

whoomprat said:

Royal_Tour said:

whoomprat said:

Royal_Tour said:

SO by Royal's logic you should fold AA too, because it is also not bad beat proof.Monkey could have had the same flop action with AA, AK, AQ, AJ, QQ, JJ, hell even AT.Pairs come 6 ways, non pairs come 16 ways. so 6 out of 82 is 7%. He could even have TT or KQ. Bottom line is it's far from likely he has AA.If Tru is correct that an A is a 7:3 dog to KK, i'd take that bet.Bottom line,You have no business trying to post odds refer to my old thread on the chances of a over pair to your pair, there is certain odds that you hold a lower PP to someones over pair. not a guestimate like you assume.And in this case, we are not debating wether he has AA, we are debating if its correct to call an all in here even though we are among top 5 in chips early in a MTT.on and BTW,, finally you are correct, AA isnt bad beat proof. Did i say i fold KK and AA preflop?. no. do i fold KK in this instance? Yes.thank you
I have business posting anything I want, especially rational ways to look at this hand.if he holds only 1 ace, 7:3 is a huge edge. Hmmm, 70% chance that I'm far and away the chip leader and can coast to big money or 30% I go play another. you'll never see odds that good.Folding KK preflop when you know you're giong to be heads up is weak weak weak.
We are only HU because everyone folds.Understand that people can get A's at any time during a tourney
By definition, you are only heads up when everybody else folds.Did anything i say hinge on the fact that A's are available now or later?
Yes., you said the simple fact that the only hand that can beat us is AA, is reason enough to make this call.

#57 PocketRocks

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:29 AM

TruePoker said:

PocketRocks said:

For me it would really depend on the exact situatuion. The only way I fold here is if he has been a very tight player. Otherwise, I would call. You can't win without taking some risks, and this situation I don't even think there is much risk(unless he has been really tight). If he is a somewhat loose player, he could have any wired pair, AKs, AQs, maybe even AKo, AQo or KQs. The chance of him having AA is very low, he probably has a small pair, putting you on over cards and trying to scare you out of the pot, if you call he might think he has a race situation. But since you are posting this on here, I would say you call and he turns up AA. At those low limits, he could really have anything, I have seen people push it with mush less, daily. I had AKs last night in the BB. Blinds were 100-200, I pushed the rest of my stack of 900 in. Dude called me with J6o and won. Online poker...gotta love it!!! :roll:
This is 2 chipleaders against each other, this isn't 900 chips at 100 / 200 blinds. This is 4500 + chips each when blinds are 15/30.
I know, I was just giving an example, that in low limits, or cheap buy-in tournies, people will call with anything.

#58 Royal_Tour

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:30 AM

This is a case of, the only player with our amount of chips has raise, then pushed our re-raise all in. We have only 300 out of 4500 chips in the middle. This is the same as having 1 chip in the middle and 14 in our stack and then calling just because we have a hand. KK is still only 70% vs Ax. The call would have be +EV if he hasn't got aces, but when we think about Tournament Equity this is an easy fold. (if we fold we are still top in chips, if we call we may not cash).exactly

#59 TruePoker

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:32 AM

whoomprat said:

Royal_Tour said:

SO by Royal's logic you should fold AA too, because it is also not bad beat proof.Monkey could have had the same flop action with AA, AK, AQ, AJ, QQ, JJ, hell even AT.Pairs come 6 ways, non pairs come 16 ways. so 6 out of 82 is 7%. He could even have TT or KQ. Bottom line is it's far from likely he has AA.If Tru is correct that an A is a 7:3 dog to KK, i'd take that bet.Bottom line,You have no business trying to post odds refer to my old thread on the chances of a over pair to your pair, there is certain odds that you hold a lower PP to someones over pair. not a guestimate like you assume.And in this case, we are not debating wether he has AA, we are debating if its correct to call an all in here even though we are among top 5 in chips early in a MTT.on and BTW,, finally you are correct, AA isnt bad beat proof. Did i say i fold KK and AA preflop?. no. do i fold KK in this instance? Yes.thank you
I have business posting anything I want, especially rational ways to look at this hand.if he holds only 1 ace, 7:3 is a huge edge. Hmmm, 70% chance that I'm far and away the chip leader and can coast to big money or 30% I go play another. you'll never see odds that good.Folding KK preflop when you know you're giong to be heads up is weak weak weak.
He didn't just fold KK, he folded it to a raise, then an all in after we re-raised. Calling here is weak, we are chip leader already and have a huge chance of making the money....You call 3 times against a naked ace here and you are out of a tournament where you are chip leader at least once... Whn your opp has AA you go out 4 out of 5 times... Calling here is - - - - -- - - -- - -eV

#60 PocketRocks

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Posted 29 September 2005 - 08:37 AM

Royal_Tour said:

PocketRocks said:

For me it would really depend on the exact situatuion. The only way I fold here is if he has been a very tight player. Otherwise, I would call. You can't win without taking some risks, and this situation I don't even think there is much risk(unless he has been really tight). If he is a somewhat loose player, he could have any wired pair, AKs, AQs, maybe even AKo, AQo or KQs. The chance of him having AA is very low, he probably has a small pair, putting you on over cards and trying to scare you out of the pot, if you call he might think he has a race situation. But since you are posting this on here, I would say you call and he turns up AA. At those low limits, he could really have anything, I have seen people push it with mush less, daily. I had AKs last night in the BB. Blinds were 100-200, I pushed the rest of my stack of 900 in. Dude called me with J6o and won. Online poker...gotta love it!!! :roll:
1st - dont bring the limits into question, we are analyzing the play.2nd - why does he have to be tight to have AA? is it not possible for any player to hold AA at any time during the tourney?3rd - why are we basing our call onthe fact that "the chance is low" and not looking at all the events leading up to this.
This is why poker is so interesting, so many players play so many different ways. I will play differently today than I did yesterday. It would really depend on how I was feeling and who was in the hand to make that call. 99% of the time I would call. Poker is Gambling, you aren't gambling if there is no risk. If you want to be a pu$$y, then lay it down, otherwise, grow some balls and take some risks. You want to fold and wait for a better spot???? Wait for the rocks??? That is the only better spot you will be in. I just think for him to come over the top is a stupid play if he is holding AA. It seems more like a scare play to me, but then again I was not at the table and don't know how the guy was playing, that is where the "feel" comes into play. If you feel it, push it...if not, fold.




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