phil ivey omaha hand

[keith crime 8]

did anyone watch espn last nightthere was an omaha hand where phil ivy had A 10 of spades after the flop he had a flush draw vs two sets and was like 46% which seemed high to me - it didnt seem like he had much of a straight chancesanyone remember the details and why his proability was so high vs the top set?

[alf13 0]

did anyone watch espn last nightthere was an omaha hand where phil ivy had A 10 of spades after the flop he had a flush draw vs two sets and was like 46% which seemed high to me - it didnt seem like he had much of a straight chancesanyone remember the details and why his proability was so high vs the top set?

Because the chances of the board pairing where very low. That's why.Everybody and their mother had a set....even I had a set and I wasn't playing...I folded BTW.

[keith crime 8]

i know but wouldnt his chances of hitting a flush be about 35% he was 46% to win - did he have a 14 % chance of making some weird straight that i didnt see?

[Kendren 1]

did anyone watch espn last nightthere was an omaha hand where phil ivy had A 10 of spades after the flop he had a flush draw vs two sets and was like 46% which seemed high to me - it didnt seem like he had much of a straight chancesanyone remember the details and why his proability was so high vs the top set?

Because the chances of the board pairing where very low. That's why.Everybody and their mother had a set....even I had a set and I wasn't playing...I folded BTW.

Good laydown.

[Kendren 1]

i know but wouldnt his chances of hitting a flush be about 35% he was 46% to win - did he have a 14 % chance of making some weird straight that i didnt see?

yeah, there was a Q on the board and he had AT, KJ would have done it for him, I think he had a couple other backdoor straight draws too.

[alf13 0]

i know but wouldnt his chances of hitting a flush be about 35% he was 46% to win - did he have a 14 % chance of making some weird straight that i didnt see?

Post the board...and let's ANALize it.

[Don Giovanni 0]

i know but wouldnt his chances of hitting a flush be about 35% he was 46% to win - did he have a 14 % chance of making some weird straight that i didnt see?

well a lot of cards could be seen from all the hands that were in, and not many of them had spades. this means there were a lot of spades left in the deck. that along with the fact that everyone else had few outs to fill up made iveys hand the favorite.

[Kendren 1]

Board was Q 8 2, 2 spades, of courseIvey's hand was A 10 7 somethingSo there's 2 backdoor straights there, KJ and J9/J6/96. So that's probably your phantom 11%.

[Don Giovanni 0]

Board was Q 8 2, 2 spades, of courseIvey's hand was A 10 7 somethingSo there's 2 backdoor straights there, KJ and J9/J6/96. So that's probably your phantom 11%.

well tell us what the other peoples hands were

[Ron_Mexico 4,238]

did anyone watch espn last nightthere was an omaha hand where phil ivy had A 10 of spades after the flop he had a flush draw vs two sets and was like 46% which seemed high to me - it didnt seem like he had much of a straight chancesanyone remember the details and why his proability was so high vs the top set?

Because the chances of the board pairing where very low. That's why.Everybody and their mother had a set....even I had a set and I wasn't playing...I folded BTW.

Could you have made that laydown Williamson did? I don't play Omaha, too much thinking for me.

[Kendren 1]

eeesh, let's see if I can rememberOne guy had QQ7x, the other 227x (wierd about the 7s)Williamson had folded 88xx on the flop to massive aggression. One of the 2 guys had the case 8 (maybe Ivey did)If Ivey did have the case 8, then he was also drawing to AA, which would give him the best FH.I'm sorry, I can't remember every detail.

[Kendren 1]

did anyone watch espn last nightthere was an omaha hand where phil ivy had A 10 of spades after the flop he had a flush draw vs two sets and was like 46% which seemed high to me - it didnt seem like he had much of a straight chancesanyone remember the details and why his proability was so high vs the top set?

Because the chances of the board pairing where very low. That's why.Everybody and their mother had a set....even I had a set and I wasn't playing...I folded BTW.

Could you have made that laydown Williamson did? I don't play Omaha, too much thinking for me.

Absolutely. To two all-ins and the chip leader behind you seemingly willing to call, you gotta believe middle set is utter crap.

[alf13 0]

Could you have made that laydown Williamson did? I don't play Omaha, too much thinking for me.

Yeah...easy fold actually.....considering the circumstances of course.

[ajs510 122]

did anyone watch espn last nightthere was an omaha hand where phil ivy had A 10 of spades after the flop he had a flush draw vs two sets and was like 46% which seemed high to me - it didnt seem like he had much of a straight chancesanyone remember the details and why his proability was so high vs the top set?

Because the chances of the board pairing where very low. That's why.Everybody and their mother had a set....even I had a set and I wasn't playing...I folded BTW.

Could you have made that laydown Williamson did? I don't play Omaha, too much thinking for me.

2 all-in's and a loose player with money already in the pot behind you? Hell yes I'd make the laydown with middle-set. You have to figure someone has the Queens with the two all-ins, and Williamson called Ivey on the flush draw the second he made the move to call. He knew his 8's were no good.

[Don Giovanni 0]

eeesh, let's see if I can rememberOne guy had QQ7x, the other 227x (wierd about the 7s)Williamson had folded 88xx on the flop to massive aggression. One of the 2 guys had the case 8 (maybe Ivey did)If Ivey did have the case 8, then he was also drawing to AA, which would give him the best FH.I'm sorry, I can't remember every detail.

well from the looks of it ivey had some runner runner draws and i also noticed that with all those exposed cards not many people had iveys spades so that is why he was 46% or whatever

[pwoblo 0]

they were probably using the other players' hole cards too. Instead of drawing to 9 flush cards out of the usual 45, maybe he was drawing to 9 or 8 flush cards and some backdoors out of 37 remaining cards.

[Kendren 1]

eeesh, let's see if I can rememberOne guy had QQ7x, the other 227x (wierd about the 7s)Williamson had folded 88xx on the flop to massive aggression. One of the 2 guys had the case 8 (maybe Ivey did)If Ivey did have the case 8, then he was also drawing to AA, which would give him the best FH.I'm sorry, I can't remember every detail.

well from the looks of it ivey had some runner runner draws and i also noticed that with all those exposed cards not many people had iveys spades so that is why he was 46% or whatever

Right, all the runner runner draws plus a nearly totally live flush draw added up.

[garamond10pt 0]

His chance of hitting the flush was higher than 35% because there are a lot fewer cards in the deck.

[sholden 0]

His chances of hitting the flush over 45%. There 's 8 spades left in the deck out of 29 remaining cards. Two cards to come:1-(21/29 * 21/28) = 45.7%His backdoor straight doesn't make up for the the boat possibilities when he does make his flush.Of course he can't see the hole cards, so he can't know how spade heavy the deck is.

[turd ferguson 1]

His chances of hitting the flush over 45%. There 's 8 spades left in the deck out of 29 remaining cards. Two cards to come:1-(21/29 * 21/28) = 45.7%His backdoor straight doesn't make up for the the boat possibilities when he does make his flush.Of course he can't see the hole cards, so he can't know how spade heavy the deck is.

Or can he? I'm pretty sure that's what makes him so good.

[Razor 0]

Board was Q 8 2, 2 spades, of courseIvey's hand was A 10 7 somethingSo there's 2 backdoor straights there, KJ and J9/J6/96. So that's probably your phantom 11%.

What does the J-6 give him?

[JJACKSON123 0]

I think because it was Omaha and ESPN knew everyones cards... i think that they knew more of the discards therefor they knew that there were more spades left in the deck and they had seen more nonspade cards...

[jeremyb311 0]

I think because it was Omaha and ESPN knew everyones cards... i think that they knew more of the discards therefor they knew that there were more spades left in the deck and they had seen more nonspade cards...

Yes, ESPN calculates the odds based on cards left in the deck after knowing EVERYONES hole cards. It can be misleading sometimes. Given the fact that QQ has only four live boat outs on the turn is pretty shitty for that guy.

[Kendren 1]

Board was Q 8 2, 2 spades, of courseIvey's hand was A 10 7 somethingSo there's 2 backdoor straights there, KJ and J9/J6/96. So that's probably your phantom 11%.

What does the J-6 give him?

Well, duh, it gives him... uhm... yeah.my bad.

[KowboyKoop 0]

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