Posted 27 September 2005 - 03:02 PM
If he re-raises the flop, the easy read is either a) flopped baby flush, or b) As-Xh where X is top pair. That's the way it happens almost all the time at low limits online... with some the occassional two-pair/straight with a redraw/higher set thrown in there much more rarely. Then you can decide based on odds (you need about 2:1 to get an EV neutral call IF you think you're behind, which isn't always the case), or make the call based on the read. The point is, there's a LOT that Villain bets here that we're WAY ahead of, and if we're not, then we're drawing WAY live to beat him and double up.If we have a set, then we have 10 outs to pair the board and win with a boat (6 unseen cards to pair the flop + 1 more for quad 4's, and if we brick the turn then we pick up 3 more outs to pair that other card on the river to equal 10 outs). Remember, these are outs TO BEAT A FLUSH, which we may not necessarily be behind to.If you raise the flop, you make the pot bigger so it's a) easier to make a play the turn, and b) to increase fold equity (the more you raise, and the more streets you have raised increase your fold equity, i.e. opponents' desire to fold, generally speaking).Let's not forget you have the best hand here more times than you don't. The raise is also for value (putting money in the pot with the best hand), AND it keeps a lot of 1-spade hands from getting a cheap draw at 9 cards that instantly beat you (though you have the killer redraw).By calling, you don't know what your opponent is betting, you don't know where your at, and the turn is small enough to fold for a monster bet. You don't want to be in the habit of having pots be small enough by the turn to fold for a big bet.Don't forget we're way ahead of a lot of hands that bet here, but they may have 1-card spade draws. If that's the case, then raising the flop and pricing them out on the turn is EXACTLY the way to go.Villain bets 8 at 8, I'm raising to 24. The guy behind you then HAS to fold (or get really creative) and then the guy who bet has a decision to make. If he calls and checks the turn to me, I'm overbetting to the tune of 75. If he calls with a 1-card spade, he's calling horribly unprofitably, and if he check-pushes with a better hand, we can still call with our redraw.Do you see how in no limit a) suckouts and bad play CAN be rewarded, but b) you STILL have to bet with the purpose of IF you're opponents are going to call, they have to draw as unprofitably as possible? Sets are absolute gold mines in no limit.
Always bet like you've got a pair.
--Me