Posted 01 February 2005 - 12:51 PM
You need to play back with AK, and play it back for all your chips. Worst case is a coinflip. Best is domination. AA/KK: only 6 combinations left of each, and trapping with them is so popular, you can rule it out.You're never so far behind any other pair that the pot odds don't compensate.1000 chips in there, plus the 1300 if called for 1700 is 23-17, or over 1.3 to 1 which is less than the amount you're behind, so it's favorable chip-odds-wise (slightly) even if he shows you JJ and says "I WILL CALL". Add in some chance he'll fold on the pure steal, plus the hands he'll call with to "send a message", and you're up on chips on a push.Any A, Any K you have him looking for 3 outs. Every other combination you have a definite edge as well, he needs to catch while you do not, making you a winner about 64% of those cases, IIRC.Remember, if one of those 750s picks up a hand in the blinds, you're suddenly right there with them and paying your blinds before him. You have at best 3rd place cash locked up. The difference between 2nd and 1st is the same as the difference between 4th and 3rd. It seems different, but it isn't. You are likely a sizable favorite, and folding into the money isn't quite a sure thing. 6 BB's. Big stack almost minraising you, on the bubble in a sitngo. Smaller stacks that will push or be pushed in by any steal attempt you make as the button goes around, so you don't have any chance to pick up those chips again.Waiting for getting in the money to play back is exactly how the BB and most good sit-n-go players WANT you to play. I know I love the fold into the money crowd, they pad my 1st place count and when they try to fold for 3rd, that's what they do. Get 3rd. Remember, with the 50/30/20 structure, a first and a 4th is better than 2 3rd's in payout. In addition, the buy-in on the line is the same amount (minus vig) that separates 2nd, which is at least 60% likely on a push and call, from 3rd which you can easily get stuck with on a fold. Death or glory, baby!