13 replies to this topic

[DwayneWayne]

Play along at home....I am in a 2-5 NL game which usually plays more passive then aggressive with a few players/big stacks that like to push the action...I have around $575 in front of me, which is above average for the table. I look down and pick up 6D7D in late position after 3 player limp in front.The Big Blind, makes it $20 to go, 3 call including myself. 5 to the flop...~$100 in the pot when the flop comes down...3D-5D-9CBB bets out $50, all fold to me, I push all in for $575, putting the BB all in for his entire stack. (A $400 plus call for him).Good, Bad, or Ugly....With $150 in the pot my thought was to take it right here...results to follow.

[EgyptianMagician]

You might move the BB off mid pair or an underpair but if I were him and I was sitting there with A9, I would say that something is very very fishy about that overbet of the pot and would call figuring you for a draw or a weaker hand. Overbets of the pot by 2-3x always arrise suspicions as well they should-- you were semibluffing and that was apparent.

[DwayneWayne]

So what do you think would be a good amount to push him off his hand?a $200 raise? The problem I see with a bet like this is if I miss the turn what then, check and hope on the river or push all in then? Do you think calling the flop and waiting for the river is a better play here?

[Pearl]

EgyptianMagician said:

You might move the BB off mid pair or an underpair but if I were him and I was sitting there with A9, I would say that something is very very fishy about that overbet of the pot and would call figuring you for a draw or a weaker hand. Overbets of the pot by 2-3x always arrise suspicions as well they should-- you were semibluffing and that was apparent.

totally agree here. that bet smelled. he would call with his 10's, J's or K's (it feels like thats what he has). or he could have Ad Kd, then you are in a tough spot. - what do you put him on? AK/AQ diamonds or 10/J/K's? if its the former, a call to see if you can outplay him seems better because if he didn't hit, you can bluff. if its latter, then "call on flop, and betting about $250" after turn is my preference - somehow, many players i have played against are more likely to call an all-in then a bet that says 'please call me' - but bet has to be high enough that they would lay down their big PP (and you generally know people's 'stress limit' from other hands) - that said, if he is a plain rookie, then there are some who will never lay down their K's on ANY board. take my word on that one. in the situation where you just 'call on flop and raise on turn' is good. eg. you have J's from bb. and i just called your $50 bet after a long thought. and turn is a 9, and you bet, and i raised you all in, chances are he would lay it down i.e you have a lot more "virtual outs" (and if he checks the top pair, and you bet $250, he might lay it down as well). keep in mind - it all depends on your read of the player - live by the sword, and hopefully, you dont have to die by the sword

[randomization]

I really can't believe people are worried you'll get called by a pair of nines. You really need to know (or check) the probabilities when looking at a question like this: http://www.twodimes.net/poker/ is one website place you can check. 6d 7d is a 56-44 favorite over As 9s here, and even a 51-48 favorite over Ad 9s. With the extra $150 in the pot, you aren't at all worried about getting called by any pair of nines that doesn't include two diamonds. By the same token, you can't expect that any reasonable opponent would call here with just the pair of nines. You're also only a 51-49 underdog against two pair. Counting the money in the pot, that's a good deal too. What're you're really scared of is a set, which you're a 59-41 underdog to or Ad9d (doesn't really matter whether it's an ace or kind etc) which is 73-27. Higher diamonds are a 60-40 favorite against you, but they can't realistically call because they're worried that they might be badly beat by a set or two pair. With all that said, I think you're clearly making a positive expectation play by pushing all-in. The numbers you give aren't exact, but suppose the BB has another $450. If he calls, you're spending $500 and getting $1100 everytime you win, and $150 everytime the opponent folds. It's hard to pick exact numbers, but suppose your opponent folds 50% of the time, and calls the rest. Half the time he calls, he's got a set, the other half, he has Ad9d or some similar hand. [I'm afraid these numbers are really random. My gut feeling is that you'll get folded to more than 50% of the time, which makes your numbers better. You also might get called by someone with a pair of aces which makes the numbers even better. Anyone else have opinions here?]50% of the time you win the $150 in the pot, 17% of the time you win $110033 % of the time you lose $500You'll end up winning $96 from pushing all-in. I don't take making a smaller raise to be a very serious possibility, for precisely the reason that you can get stranded on the turn if no help comes. As for calling, that would seem to only be a good choice if you expect that your opponent is capable of putting in a lot of money after the third flush card drops. If he's not, then you're not getting great odds to call, and you're better off taking a shot now, I think.

[DwayneWayne]

I was thinking the same thing, if he had an over pair I am ahead at this point with 15 clean outs. I was putting a play to take the $150 right there with the hope he could lay down a big hand, I didn't take him as a player who would make that big of a bet with AK, AKd was a possible hand but I still think he would check-called.My question was was this play a good profitable strategy based on this board and my position. I still think it was.In the real hand the player called with KsKd. I did not improve and he doubled up through me, after the hand I was in shock that he would have called that bet, I read a couple of posts saying that the bet screamed semi-bluff, even so I think that play could have been used by a small 2 pair or even a set. what hands are the K's ahead of that would make this play, really only against an underpair....QQ, JJ, TT or empty flush draw....I think the big bet screams two pair, or small set with a flush on board....?I would like to post this hand the other direction and see if ppl are calling because it is screaming semi-bluff.....I'll say 90% plus scream fold those Kings.

[randomization]

Calling with kings only makes sense if he knows that you're semibluffing on a draw. Depending on exactly what type of draw you have, he's either a small favorite or small underdog, and in either case there's money in the pot. So if were able to read you well, it wouldn't be a bad play. Depending on your play, he might actually have such a read on you, though it's kind of unlikely. The appropriate questions would be whether you could call a raise with something like 53s, whether you'd make this all-in bet with a set, and whether you possibly could've limped and then just called the raise with aces. If he doesn't know much about your play then he can't rule out you having two pair, a set, or even aces, and him being in major trouble.

[Chip_and_a_Chair]

Dwayne,My take on it is this: I think whether or not you get called with Kings depends entirely upon the financial mindset of your opponent. I agree that your bet smells like a semi-bluff. My first instinct would be to put you on Ad Xd. But when I consider my own style, I realize that if I had trips on that flop, I would have pushed to make it extremely expensive for my opponent to draw to a flush. Though $2/$5 is certainly within my playing limits, calling $400+ bets in the face of uncertainty is not. With a preflop raise 4x BB, I recognize that most casino-goers at that limit would call with small/medium pocket pairs, hoping to strike it rich on the flop.33, 55, 99, AA, 3 5 and 3 9, and 5 9 all beat me (though I'd have a hard time putting you on the latter three or AA, since I would expect an eager reraise). Though I would be suspicious of a flush draw or smaller overpair, I simply wouldn't put $400+ in the pot to win $550 with that many question marks. Simply put, if I called in this situation, I would expect to see you flip over a set, and I would kick myself for the rest of my time in Vegas. I would fold for self-preservation reasons, and this is my biggest chink in the poker armor.So, yes, barring any significant tells, you would have gotten a conservative player like me -- who has some knowledge of odds and reads -- to lay down the Kings. HOWEVER, I think any player with either a large bankroll or a sizeable ego would call your bet, and though you'd have an excellent draw, you'd still be behind. If I had a bankroll of $20,000 and could take a hit, I'd call the smelly bet, knowing that I only truly feared three hands, and that even if I lost I'd have gained some valuable experience.You have to know your opponent before making this kind of play -- casino regular or tourist; experienced or inexperienced; tight or aggressive; maniacal ego or cautious to a fault? I see two types of people calling you: experienced players who trust their reads when something smells fishy and can afford to lose a big pot, or inexperienced players who wouldn't lay down their precious Kings even if you flashed them a pair of Aces. I think calling with Kings is a poor play... but I think pushing your 6d7d against either of these two types is also a suspect play, because any hand that they will call you with probably has you beat at the moment, and fear of risk won't motivate them to fold here.

[randomization]

Quote

and though you'd have an excellent draw, you'd still be behind

Eh, this is either false or misleading. The 6d7d is actually a 52-48 favorite against the kings. If that's behind, I'm planning on getting my money in with the worst of it more often. Maybe you meant that you have to improve to win, which is true, but fairly irrelevant when you're pushing all of your money into the pot.

[jayistheman]

i did the same play in the 1/2 NL at borgata a year ago... missed my damn awesome draw too :x

[DwayneWayne]

it was too pretty to pass up, before i knew what was happening I was pushing my stack in.....un-f-in real. Still can't believe he called.I posted this hand from the KK side in the HOLD'em Forum.....so far all FOLDS!People love to pick off semi bluffs on Monday Morning....

[jayistheman]

did u ever consider the fact that hes a bad player? bad players cant fold overpairs... .in the 1/2 game at the borgata, i might call against any of the players ive seen before.... they are super super loose and agressive.....ive had my 2 dollar blind posted... folds around to small blind (rare... very rare) and the sb raised it to 80!!! some of the wierdest plays under the sun happen in that game.

[Chip_and_a_Chair]

randomization said:

Quote

and though you'd have an excellent draw, you'd still be behind

Eh, this is either false or misleading. The 6d7d is actually a 52-48 favorite against the kings. If that's behind, I'm planning on getting my money in with the worst of it more often. Maybe you meant that you have to improve to win, which is true, but fairly irrelevant when you're pushing all of your money into the pot.

Yes, I meant that he would have to improve to win. I generally think of ahead/behind as referring to who is in the lead at that given point, and favorite/underdog as referring to odds of showing down the best hand at the end.

[Pearl]

Chip_and_a_Chair said:

Dwayne,My take on it is this:  I think whether or not you get called with Kings depends entirely upon the financial mindset of your opponent.  I agree that your bet smells like a semi-bluff.  I see two types of people calling you: experienced players who trust their reads when something smells fishy and can afford to lose a big pot, or inexperienced players who wouldn't lay down their precious Kings even if you flashed them a pair of Aces.  

could not have said it myself better.only one thing - calling with K's is NOT necessarily a bad call - it obviously depends on flop and the situation. wayne, if you are the last to act, chances are you would have raised vs. 4 limpers if you are holding 9's or A's, so you can eliminate 9's or A's (if you have A's you would reraise when raised, to get the headsup). the whole thing just does not smell right - even 2's or 3's I would have raised to control the board (and if paint hit the board, could bluff based on opponent reaction) or win it right there preflop. just because your opponent trusts his read and called you with what he believes to be the best hand does not make him bad (and he has the K for the backdoor).another point - if i face tight conservative players who would fold to "stress level" bet, they are easy targets, especially if they are readable. if people say that this is a 'definite and always 'fold to the all-in, then that bodes well for my poker education -- or money for movies :)you also have to take into account the tilt factor that would get you if you get called and lose in that coin toss situation. my 13 year old cousin knows that straight flush draws are very good vs A's on flop but what people don't realize is that you need enough 'number of trials' to make it profitable in the long run. put another way - if someone says, lets toss a coin only one time for 50k, would you do it? even if coin is weighted 55/45 in your favor? my point it that this play works vs tight conservative players (or experienced players who dont overplay their TPTK/cowboys - WITH tight fist on their stack - you know one when you have played vs. one) - you canNOT always push against any player and expect to win the pot right there. -- we have not even discussed the probability that he might have the top set when you push. the play is not wrong - not suggesting that at all. i just would have played differently (i notice that on few days i have 'lost column' checked in my book, those are the types of plays i lost the stack and went on tilt rest of the day). call and bluff on turn even if miss (give more reasons to let K's holder believe you actually hit your 2 pairs or whatever outs) is i think a lot more profitable - just in general - and you are not risking your stack.Just don't use this against me if i ever run into you at the Play Station . i want to keep watching free movies.