Jump to content


Calculating How Big of A Dog/Favorite You Are


  • Please log in to reply
11 replies to this topic

#1 tekn0wledg

tekn0wledg

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 940 posts
  • Location:Virginia
  • Interests:Golf, Video Games, Statistics

Posted 02 December 2004 - 05:21 AM

Ok, so most of us know howto figure out pot odds, and some of us know basic ways to find out how big of a dog/favorite we arein a certain situation [usually pre-flop with AKs, KQs or a pocket pair etc].I was curious if anyone has come across any good articles or methods for calculating such items on the fly?I know my basics, but I want to be able to figure this out in any situation on the fly. Any takers?

#2 mreevit

mreevit

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 22 posts
  • Location:Houston, TX

Posted 02 December 2004 - 07:23 PM

Ok, I'll try.Say u have two suited cards and flop a flush draw.What do you know?-there were 52 cards before.-you know 5 cards are out therefore you are drawing to a total of 47 cards right?-13 suited cards minus the 4 you have leaves you 9 outs.-of those 47 cards 9 will make your flush. So you are a 38:9 dog to do it. We can round to 4:1 per card that you will draw to. -You have two draws correct? (Turn and River) so multipy your odds by two (your side)=4:1x2=4:2....2:1 is about 33%. dog to make your flush by the showdown, and a 4:1 dog to make it by the turn. If you miss the turn you can ignore that blank because the change will be negligible (maybe 3.9 to 1). So if you miss your flush on the turn you are again a 4:1 dog to make it on the river. Quick version:1. Find the number of Outs (9) and determine the number of cards in the pool. (52-5=47).2.So you have 9 cards out of 47 (9/47)3. convert(if you want)9: 47-94. So, for every 9 cards that will help you make your hand 38 will not. So your odds of drawing are 38:9 which is about 4:15.You have two chances to hit the card which doubles you chances from 4:1 underdog to 2:1 underdog...to do it by showdown.I hope this helps. Email me if you have any questions.
mreevit

#3 StackOSociety

StackOSociety

    Poker Forum Regular

  • Members
  • 102 posts
  • Interests:soccer, computers

Posted 02 December 2004 - 09:58 PM

Assuming all your outs are live.Your opponent could be on the flush draw as well, dropping the outs to 7.And then you hit the flush and your opponent has the nut flush! Eeek! :oops:

#4 mk

mk

    nord-américain racaille

  • Members
  • 9,873 posts

Posted 02 December 2004 - 10:54 PM

I assume you know the rule of four, right?

#5 NYIsles

NYIsles

    Poker Forum Regular

  • Members
  • 244 posts

Posted 03 December 2004 - 09:45 AM

I think the best thing you can do is memorize a chart for the pot odds you need to get in order to call. Here's what I use, courtesy of Matthew Hilger's "Internet Texas Hold Em" text (a great book, by the way):Outs_______Hand_________2 cards to come_________1 card to come20_________________________.5 to 1________________1.3 to 119___________________________.5___________________1.518___________________________.6___________________1.617___________________________.7___________________1.816___________________________.8___________________1.915___Flush draw, 2 overcards____.8___________________2.114___________________________1.0__________________2.413___________________________1.1__________________2.612___Flush draw, 1 overcard_____1.2__________________3.011___________________________1.4__________________3.310___________________________1.6__________________3.79_______Flush draw____________1.9__________________4.08__Open ended straight draw_____2.2__________________5.07____________________________2.6__________________6.06______2 overcards____________3.0__________________7.05____________________________4.0__________________8.04_____Gut shot draw____________5.0_________________11.03____________________________7.0__________________15.02_____Pocket pair______________11.0_________________23.01____________________________23.0_________________46.0A few notes, the two cards to come column implies there will be no betting on the turn, so I generally use this for all-in situations on the flop.The one card to come column is calculated on the flop, so the odds on the turn will be (only slightly) better.If this seems difficult to memorize, it's not. I'd suggest developing a set of 40 index cards for yourself, 2 for each out total. On the front of each card, put the out# and whether it's for 2 cards to come or for 1 card to come. On the back, put the pot odds you need to be getting.Memorize a few of them each day, and keep the pack of cards handy to refresh/quiz yourself periodically.Don't laugh. It's how Ken Uston used to train his teams of blackjack players to count cards. And those charts were infinitely more complex...
"I've geared my body for 23 years to get in shape for the drinking and the fun..." - Don Cherry, Hockey Night In Canada

#6 tekn0wledg

tekn0wledg

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 940 posts
  • Location:Virginia
  • Interests:Golf, Video Games, Statistics

Posted 03 December 2004 - 10:15 AM

I'm not talking about the number of outs I have to call a hand.... we all know pot odds.I'm talking about something like, I have AKs and someone moves all-in. I figure them for pocket QQ or KK, so, if I call, let's say a small amount, nothing major for my stack, how big of a dog am I here? I know that if he does have KK he only has one case K to hit trips, thus any ace would win the hand for me. So.... what's my calulation? I want to see I am % fav to win vs his % fav to win, or a ratio. I know my outs and the number of cards remaining, three.... so is my calculation just as simple as that? I say 42:3 on the flop and 41:3 on the turn? That would mean i'm a 7% favorite to win the hand? or 13-to-1 dog?

#7 einbert

einbert

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 4 posts

Posted 03 December 2004 - 01:20 PM

You have to figure all the ways you can beat KK, like by making a straight or a flush if your AK is suited. Your chances of simply hitting another ace (if his cards are KK) are 3/46+3/45+3/44+3/43+3/42 or about 34%. However, your opponent will improve some of that time enough to beat your pair of aces, so you won't win a full 34% of the time. The best way to calculate this situation fully is to take every possible full 5 card board and determine the number of boards that give you the best hand and the number of boards that give your opponent the best hand. The actual figure for AKo against KK is somewhere around 70%-30% (in favor of KK of course). For AKs it's closer to 67%-33%. Here's a useful tool for calculating these situations:http://cardplayer.co...xas_holdem.php#Hope that helps!

#8 bdluss

bdluss

    Poker Forum Regular

  • Members
  • 165 posts

Posted 04 December 2004 - 11:18 AM

I basically have just learned all those by heart over the past year or so with this resource, the pokerodds calculator on cardplayer.com. Just go there and put in hands and you will see all the percentages. That way you will know if you got ak against the q's your about 43%, against the k's your about 30%, (suited ak is about 34%). Keep in mind that suited hole cards make a signficance. Some very interesting hands, AJ vs KQ suited, the KQ about 44%, 10J suited against 3's the 10J 53%, and 10J suited vs ak 10J suited 41%. Just do this enough and you will be able to get a great idea as to the percentage of hands and their probability to win. After that you can just generalize like A9 vs kj very similar to the aj vs kq and so on. Just some simple memorizations and playing out enough hands and you will pick up on it in no time. These percenatges are very important at the end of tournies where alot of pots are all in preflop and you have to calculate your odds against various hands your opponent might have to see if your getting a good price to call.

#9 Incubus77546

Incubus77546

    Form Of An Ice Menorah!

  • Members
  • 1,312 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Houston, TX
  • Favorite Poker Game:Omaha Hi/Lo

Posted 05 December 2004 - 07:59 AM

Cardplayer.com also just recently got an Omaha Calculator if anyone is interested... :D

#10 Mashchit

Mashchit

    Poker Forum Regular

  • Members
  • 167 posts

Posted 05 December 2004 - 12:02 PM

The Hold 'Em Showdown program might be of interest to you too. It is similar to the Card Player page, but a more simple desktop application, and might be easier to use if you wanted to try it while playing a tourney. It will also probably give you slightly different results to the Card Player site since it works by enumeration rather that simulation. The url is http://www.brecware....y_software.html I don't know of any software that gives you the run down for the kind of situation that you're talking about. I'm not a statistician so this may be wrong, but perhaps you need to use Bayes Theorem, work out the percentages and then do a weighted average. So, if you have AK and think your opponent has QQ, KK or AA then they have 6 possible combinations of QQ, 3 of KK and 3 of AA. Work out your odds against each hand using the software then add 6/12 of the queens % to 3/12 of the KK % and 3/12 of the AA % to give you your expected % (and hence odds) against these hands. Obviously that doesn't factor in if you have a wrong read and they have something else, but it's a start. What do you think? Is that right or am I writing rubbish?

#11 FrankB

FrankB

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 61 posts
  • Location:Oceanside, Ca
  • Interests:Cooking; Poker; magic (although not at the same time); all sports especially football and hockey
  • Favorite Poker Game:H.O.R.S.E.

Posted 07 December 2004 - 08:54 AM

The Wilson Turbo Hold 'em software and Mike Caro's Poker Probe (available at his site) are both great tools for figuring out these types of statistics. They are fully customizable so you can create any race between 2 hands or even up to 9 or 10 hands.

#12 mk

mk

    nord-américain racaille

  • Members
  • 9,873 posts

Posted 10 December 2004 - 12:24 AM

Does anyone know of a site that will calculate the odds of a specific hand against a random hand?




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users