set vs. possible overset

[HoosierAlum 0]

Sorry, I don't have a converter for this one. I had just sat down at this table, so I don't have any specific reads. However, watching a few rounds I noticed the table was very loose and aggressive. 2/4 9 handedHero in CO with 9d 9cUTG calls, UTG +1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, sb 3-bets. UTG calls, UTG +1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls.Flop: Ad 9h 2hSB bets, UTG Raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero 3 bets, SB caps, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.Turn: JcSB check, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, UTG Calls, UTG +1 calls, Hero calls.River 3dSB check, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 callsOk, HUGE pot. My question is, should I have capped the turn? The SB is screaming AA right now, but also this table is playing hyper-aggressive for the few hands I have been here. The check-raise on turn makes me think I'm in trouble so I don't cap. The SB river check perplexes me, so I raise the UTG bet although its possible (not likely) that he has a set of jacks. Should I have just smooth called the river in case the SB check raises again? If SB 3-bets river I don't cap...correct?I think I played it right, just wanted to make sure.

[Devilkin 0]

I'm capping that one all the way.Could very easily be a badly overplayed AK/AQ, or AJ two pair.If he has a higher set, I'm paying him off. Most of the time though, that pot is being taken down by the set of 9's.Dev

[creepy20 0]

cap that turn. obviously people are flushing and somebody has AK,AQ and if he has AA...well you gotta pay it offNH

[Jadaki 1]

Cap it all the way, if he has a set of aces you pay him off. I think AJ is a lot more likely though. What did the other two have though, I am suprised they didn't fold the river.

[Freshwaterau 0]

I think thats just one of those times you gotta pay him off. nothing else you could do

[Rocketwadster 0]

I think the fact that the other guys DID NOT fold on the river tells you that at least two people have an ace in their hand, making it extremely unlikely that you are beaten.

[JacKingOff_suit 0]

Cap it all the way, you are losing money in the long term if not. The chance of an overset is 1 in 64.

[Actuary 3]

Cap it all the way, you are losing money in the long term if not. The chance of an overset is 1 in 64.

curious how u get 1/64?not that I disagree.

[Tabulus 0]

Set over set is not 1/64, its more complicated than that I believe.

[Rocketwadster 0]

Set over set is not 1/64, its more complicated than that I believe.

There are only 6 possible hands that are oversets to our set here. Just figure out the total number of possible hands that are not those 6, and you have your number (I'm lazy). 8)

[Tabulus 0]

The trouble comes in deciding which hands are possible that aren't those case overset hands. The looser the villian is the wider the range and the lower the probabilty.

[Rocketwadster 0]

The trouble comes in deciding which hands are possible that aren't those case overset hands. The looser the villian is the wider the range and the lower the probabilty.

Nah, from a strictly mathematical point of view, ignore what hands someone would play, and just figure out the ratio.Isn't it something like 1326 possible hands that are out there (52 x 51 divided by 2)? Minus the 7 cards that we can see, and that should give you the number of possible hands. Then, take the 6 possible oversets over that number and there you go...

[Actuary 3]

I think it's closer to 1/50 given 3 opponents.

[KDawgCometh 2]

I dunno, sb's turn play is really getting me thinking, I don't think that I'm raising that river there. The sb three bet from the sb(and I'm not sure how wild I am on the PF raise) and he caps the flop after being raised and rerasied(and we did the three betting, which is big since we are the PFR), He then CR three bets the turn when what looks to be an innocent jack appears, I am not capping the whole way, and I don't get the raise on the river, I'm calling that, there has just been so much action that I am not fully sure as to whether or not we are ahead on this river to raise

[Flow73 0]

The SB doesn't have JJ, he wouldn't cap the flop with JJ. AA is possible but it depends on the player. A lot of players don't lead the flop with a set of Aces, some do but my experiance tells me most don't. The turn check-raise is interesting but could be some uneeded attempt to get more money in the pot with an overplayed AK, or an AJ. Perhaps trying to force a flush draw to face two big bets cold since you've made it aparant you will be betting before him. I cap the turn and bet/raise the river.

[HoosierAlum 0]

I've actually had mixed advice from this hand....I still have a few questions.First, should I even be raising PF here? Limping might be more appropriate.Second, I think the SB CR on the turn is kind of screaming set of AA. The SB is the villian in the hand I am worried about since he 3-bet PF. That is why I didn't cap turn. I still like raising the river because I think sb calls 2 cold with AK or AJ. I didn't think SB would check his set of AA here. Unless UTG has JJ, (Which is unlikely considering he didnt cap turn) I am getting another bet from him as he most likely has 2 pair.

[amarillotg 0]

I've actually had mixed advice from this hand....I still have a few questions.First, should I even be raising PF here? Limping might be more appropriate. raiseSecond, I think the SB CR on the turn is kind of screaming set of AA. The SB is the villian in the hand I am worried about since he 3-bet PF. That is why I didn't cap turn. i think you should cap the turn. if he shows AA then tip your hat to him, but i think your best here an overwhelming amount of the time.I still like raising the river because I think sb calls 2 cold with AK or AJ. I didn't think SB would check his set of AA here. Unless UTG has JJ, (Which is unlikely considering he didnt cap turn) I am getting another bet from him as he most likely has 2 pair.