6 replies to this topic

[Phil Deiwert]

Hello, I'm a long time lurker, but just registered today and had a situation come up tonight I'd really be interested in getting some feedback on:10+1 NLHE SnG, 3rd hand and I don't have notes on any of the players at my table, so I'm in the dark. I'm at 1480 (start with 1500) and get dealt 3d4d in the sb. 2 limpers, and I call the extra 10. bb then min-raises (a pet peeve of mine at any table), both limpers call, and I call too, so there is 160 in the pot. Flop is AdKd9d, I check, bb bets 100, 1 caller, 1 fold. I reraised to 450. I was worried that the guy who had just called the 100 had a big diamond and hoped to lose him at least, if not both of them. The bb then reraised all in immediately, the other guy folded, and it was up to me. I feel one of my strengths as a poker player is my ability to accurately put opponent's on hands, and I put him on KK or AQ with the Qd, but I still didn't know what to do.Any comments/analysis would be very much appreciated and if there's any interest I'll be happy to post the result later. Thanks.

[looshle]

Call all in and hope the board doesn't pair. You're ahead 95% of the time, just push it in and cross your fingers.You could have bet out on the flop but I don't think a check here is horrible with 3 people behind you. You played it pretty much as well as you could have, as long as you got your money in.

[MasterLJ]

Push push push. If you were holding a set on a flop with 2 like-suited cards, you wouldn't call the all-in from the obvious draw?Two people flopping a flush is exceedingly rare. Don't be scared of that happening. Most of the time you are way ahead and shouldn't be afraid to get your chips in.

[Phil Deiwert]

If you were holding a set on a flop with 2 like-suited cards, you wouldn't call the all-in from the obvious draw? I'm not sure I understand your question... If I were in a situation where I flopped a set, and there were 2 to a flush on that flop, and somebody moved in, then yes, I would almost certainly call. That wasn't the situation here though... the guy who I thought flopped the set moved in. But I'm sure you understood what the situation was and you know what point you are making, I just don't follow. And after thinking about it and thinking about my post, I should clarify that I really, really thought he had KK, and although A with Qd was in the back of my mind as a possibility, I was pleased when the guy who had called the initial 100 bet folded because I thought he had A or K with Qd and figured now I just had to worry about the board not pairing, NOT the board not pairing AND a 4th diamond not falling.

[Smasharoo]

Two people flopping a flush is exceedingly rareIt's rare because flopping a flush is rare.It's not any less likely the guy has a higher flush than if you drew to the third suited card on the river.Do you see why?

[Phil Deiwert]

It's not any less likely the guy has a higher flush than if you drew to the third suited card on the river. Do you see why?I actually don't. I've given it a lot of thought, but I don't understand what you mean by drawing to a third suited card on the river. Are you talking about in general? or on this specific hand? It sounds like you meant on this specific hand, but I don't see how that makes sense. Smash, believe me, arguing with you is the last thing I wanted to have happen in my first post, but I think that in the real world at least--not this hypothetical one--there's no way the bb had a flush here. As weak as the min raise from the bb is in NL poker, the guy had to have a pp, AK, AQ, or AJ. Had to. Which would make the likelihood of him having a flush on this board zero. So my point is, by default, it would be more likely to draw to the third suited card on the river, even though I don't know what you mean by that. I'm going to end the suspense now because I'm ready to go to bed. The bb had AA, he was a moron. Even knowing that, I'm still not convinced I made the best decision by calling. I was only a 65-35'ish favorite, it was the third hand, and if I fold I still have 1000 and with the blinds at 10-20 don't need to panic at all. I know I'm no Helmuth, needing better than 65-35 to get my money in, but I still thought about this hand for a long time afterwards, wondering if I shouldn't have laid it down. Also, later on in the tournament when we were down to 5 people (yes, the flush held up, that's not why I'm still questioning the call), the guy who had called the 100 raise but then folded to the 450 and all in reraises told me he had laid down 6d7d, having made "the right play at the wrong time." I believe him. I also believe I would have folded as well if I were him. Any comments about that? And no, I'm not making up the fact that 2 people flopped the flush now just because it was mentioned how supremely unlikely it is that somebody had a higher flush here.

[NarSARSsist]

The only thing I probably would have feared would be an Ace with, say an 8 or A J if you felt it was possible that he had AJ or AQ. If you feel that you are good at making reads, then maybe the third hand isn't a time for you to risk it (I guess it depends on what your goal is, if you only want first, then go for it I say). If he had two pair like one of your possibilities, then he's got 4 outs. If he had a set, he's got a 7 then 10 outer. If he has a diamond, then he's got 8 outs. The problem that I have with these situations is that you can't redraw to a better hand (okay, that's rare, I know). One card can doom your SnG. After all, you'll have plenty of chances to exploit your opponents later with your reads, right? (Please, for all who care to comment on my post, be kind to this rookie :-) .)