25 replies to this topic

[BamaFan2989]

Hey guys! I am new to this forum, but I am not new to Poker. I am only 15. shhhh! lol, but I love Poker, and I know how to play. Me and my friends play for fun with our Wal Mart chips haha. That will change at Christmas. Anyway, I am trying to get better while playing for nothing, so when I get old enough to play for real money I will be real good. You know what I am saying? So the thing I want to learn about more is Pot Odds. I know how to calculate how much % you have of catching your winning cards. You take your number of outs, and mult by 2, then add 2 to that. If I have learned correctly that should be your percent of catching the card. Now, after this I am not sure what to do. I have read you "make assumptions", but that sounds vague, or is it just like it says "MAKE ASSUMPTIONS." Thanks for those who help me, and this forum is great! Go Daniel!!!

[BamaFan2989]

sorry for double post, but no help?? I need to understand this to be a good poker player. Just wondering...

[wrto4556]

First let me say welcome to the forum. Lots of good advice here, although it doesn't come out until night. Second, have you and your friends start playing for real money, it makes the situation completely different. When I was your age I used to save my lunch money to buy things I wanted. Yall should save any money yall can and try to play for cash. $5 is fine! Just having real money at the table makes everything change. Me and my friends used to bring over socks full of change! Anything works.Now to pot odds:I will give you examples to explain it, it's eaier to learn this way. Say there is a $40 dollar pot. You have KQ and the board is JsTh3c. You have an open-end straight draw. First for your outs...Any ace (4 left in deck) any nine (4 let in deck) to make your straight. 8x2=16; 16% to make it on the turn, and 16% to make it on the river, making it 32%, or 1/3 of the time. Therefore, your odds to hit your draw are 3-1. Understand?Remember, the pot is $40. So lets say your playing head-up, and your opponent bets $10 into a $40 pot. You have to call $10 to win $50 (pot+your opponents bet=$50). right? So, $50/$10=5. The pot is laying you 5-1; your odds to hit your draw are 3-1, making a call here the correct play. If the pot is laying you equal odds as your draw, a call is generally correct. On the other hand, lets say your opponent bets $40 into a $40 pot. You have to call $40 to win $80; $80/$40=2. Your pot is laying you 2-1 odds. Your draw is only laying you 3-1, making a fold the correct play. Lets analyze these situations more closely. In the first example, the pot is laying you 5-1 on a 3-1 draw. So you will win 1 time out of 3 (3-1). Two times you will lose $10, but 1 time you will win $50. $50-$20=$30. So you will have a +EV (expected value) of $30.However, in the second example, the pot is laying you 2-1 on a 3-1 draw. You will still win 1 time out of three (3-1). But, 2 times you will lose $40, and one time you will win $80. $80-$80=$0. There is no merit in calling.So, if the pot is laying you equal odds as your draw, a call is genrally correct. One more example, then i'll let you stop reading my ramble.There is still $40 in the pot, you are still on an open-end straight draw. Your opponent bets $20. You have to call $20 to win $60 (pot($40)+bet($20)=$60). $60/$20=3. So you are getting exactly 3-1 on your 3-1 shot. One time you will win $60, two times you will lose $20. $60-$40=$20. Making a call generally a correct play, as it has a +EV of $20.gl

[BamaFan2989]

Thanks soo much!

[BamaFan2989]

So is there like a simple equation or something? Thanks.

[the_stein]

that was simple lol

[TheIceman05]

WHOA WHOA WHOA! Bad advice from the first guy, here, buddy! Okay... Think about what he just said for a minute. First off, if you've got a 1/3 shot of winning the pot, you're NOT 3-1 against, you're 2-1. 2-1 means.... for ever 2 times I lose, I will win 1 time. ISN'T THAT WHAT 1/3 means?? 1/2 (fifty fifty) means you're a 1-1 shot. (one win one loss) It's easy to calculate, too.Figure out your odds to win the pot (say, 1/4). Then subtract one from the second number, but it first, and those are your odds against. 1/4 means you're a 3-1 shot. Capice?Also, he gives more WRONG advice (and shows that he didn't know what he was talking about in the first place) when he says :However, in the second example, the pot is laying you 2-1 on a 3-1 draw. You will still win 1 time out of three (3-1). But, 2 times you will lose $40, and one time you will win $80. $80-$80=$0. There is no merit in calling. That's all wrong on every level. Yes. The pot is laying you 2-1. But you're on a 2-1 draw (as you will win one time and lose twice). His math is kinda right (you'll win 80, lose 40 and lose 40). But then he says, "There is no merit in calling." Well, if your EV is CURRENTLY 0 (as it is), then there's ALWAYS merit in calling. This is a tricky concept. It's called IMPLIED ODDS. There is absolutely merit in calling here. If you hit your hand, you're not going to win JUST the money in the pot, you're going to win whatever extra bets you capture. So if he bets 40 and you raise 40, and he calls.... well, there's some extra money there, isn't it? So if you think your opponent could potentiallly throw more money into the pot (which they almost always will), and ESPECIALLY if you think your opponent will come out betting or call a raise no matter what, you're CERTAINLY justified in calling in a coinflip situation. You're even justified in making some calls (into big pots, with bad aggressive players, etc) when you're getting slightly BELOW average odds to call. Don't get carried away.Also, a note: Give correct advice, or don't give any.

[wrto4556]

Don't take it personal.That's exactly why I said to check my math. Thanks for clearing it up.

[TylerMayes]

Not to burst anyone's bubble but the first long example is only correct if the $10 call puts you all in. Also calculating via percentages is way harder than doing simple odds calculations.That same example is an open ended straight draw aka 8 outs. As already stated you have a 1 to 5 for pot odds, $10 to win $50. This much is correct. But you have to calculate your odds of hitting only on the next card to come as you will have to call more money on the turn. For example in a 10/20 game you call and miss your draw you have to call another $20 bet into a now $60 pot. Reducing your odds to 1 to 3. ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS CALCULATE YOUR ODDS TO HIT FOR THE NEXT CARD ONLY UNLESS YOUR CALL PUTS YOU ALL IN.Now lets calculate your chance to hit on the turn, or "next card". 8 outs 47 cards. Very easy formula here. x = 8, y = 47, or more generally x = # of outs, y = Cards unknown/unseen. Formula: y / x - 1 = z ; z to 1 is your odds to hit. so for the example above47/8 = 5.875; 5.875 -1 = 4.875; 4.875 to 1 is your "to make my hand" odds. in order for a call to be correct you must have more than 4.87 betting units (whne playing limit it helps to think in small betting units and big betting units) So with $50 in the pot you can proftibably call $10 dollars. If you miss on the turn and have to call $20 to win $60 you cannot do so profitably. The exact odds change only slightly. 46/8 = 5.75; 5.75 -1 = 4.75; 4.75 to 1. You need 1 to 3 or better odds.Another element not considered in this was the possibility of a K or Q hitting and being good enough to take the pot. That gives you an extra 6 outs increasing your odds from 4.875 to 1 upto 2.35 to 1. A signifagnt increase. This is an iffy play though as JQ or QT or KT or KJ have you drawing to a trap. It takes knowing your opponents playing style to get you through these situations.Cheers,tyler

[TylerMayes]

wrto4556 said:

So, if the pot is laying you equal odds as your draw, a call is genrally correct. One more example, then i'll let you stop reading my ramble.There is still $40 in the pot, you are still on an open-end straight draw. Your opponent bets $20. You have to call $20 to win $60 (pot($40)+bet($20)=$60). $60/$20=3. So you are getting exactly 3-1 on your 3-1 shot. One time you will win $60, two times you will lose $20. $60-$40=$20. Making a call generally a correct play, as it has a +EV of $20.gl

Nope. Equal odds over an infinite # of runs = a break even situation. Though a .000001 edge is visible.....over enough time ;p. Basically the greater the edge the lower amount of time to see the postive results.Cheers,Tyler

[BamaFan2989]

I am confused.... I am soo new to this. I am gonna try to find some scenarios on the internet to work out! ThankS

[TylerMayes]

ask questions.Cheers,Tyler

[BamaFan2989]

Hey guys, I think it confused me beccause one person said he was right, then someone said he was wrong, then someone said he was wrong. It confused me to take all this in at once. I know how to calculate pot odds. If someone bets $60 if a $100 pot. you are like 5-2 or something. But I don't get how you relate that to catching your card or whatever. Thanks.

[tekn0wledg]

BamaFan2989 said:

Hey guys,  I think it confused me beccause one person said he was right, then someone said he was wrong, then someone said he was wrong.  It confused me to take all this in at once.  I know how to calculate pot odds.  If someone bets $60 if a $100 pot.  you are like 5-2 or something.  But I don't get how you relate that to catching your card or whatever.  Thanks.

Look at TylerMayes' example. This is the way you should be calculating your pot odds. My calculation is slightly different as I don't take the total number of cards and subract one, I take the number of cards that help vs those that don't and create the ratio from that. The result is the same however, but most people find his method easier.Take the number of cards left in the deck and divide by those that help you and subtract by one. In the example of the open ended straight draw you have five cards already seen, two in your hand and three on the board. So you have 47 total cards left, 8 of which help you. So 39:8 which equates to 4.875 to 1 odds, so you'd need roughly 5x the bet you are calling to make it profitable to see the next card.Once the turn falls if you still haven't made your hand you now have one less available card, 46, which makes it 38:8 or 4.75 to 1. Again you need roughly 5x the bet size, which has now doubled in a limit game, to make your draw profitable.Either of these calculations give you the result you need and should be used when determining pot odds:y = # cards remainingx = # cards to make your handz = odds to 1 to make your handy / x - 1 = zor(y-x)/x = zFrom there you can also calculate the percentage that you will make your hand from the flop and turn. I use the 4x2 method which works as follows:On the flop: number of outs * 4 = % to make your hand [rough]On the turn: number of outs * 2 = % to make your hand [rough]I hope this helps.For additional reference see the other thread started on this topic:http://www.fullconta...=147&highlight=

[JTPHS]

OK kid, I assume you're pretty smart and hope you're pretty good at math if you play poker. Sit down and think about what has to happen for you to "MAKE MONEY IN THE LONG RUN". The first guy just made a couple mistake that was corrected by the next guy. Don't over analyse it too much, but essentially you have to have a better ratio money to put in the pot / what's in the pot than the ratio to make your hand. You can figure it out. Now, here's the tricky part, it's called implied odds. What are you going to have to face on the next card. What kind of money can you suck out if you make the hand. This is especially important in no limit and a huge part to playing the game. Ie. sometimes i'll weak lead the flop to see where i am witha medium strong hand. This warrants a call. If i read that you're on a draw, and you miss the turn, i'm gonna put you to a tough decision.. maybe for all you chips. Think ahead and look for this.. maybe you can sense that i'm on a fairly week, but better hand, mayb eyou can raise and take it away from me there.. and if i call, and you hit your flush that maybe gives me two pair you could get paid off because i have a harder time putting you on a flush. giving you great odds because you're going to get paid off huge but hitting yuor flush and you give yourself a chance to pick up the pot in two ways.One more point, be sure to calculate your outs properly, sometimes over cards are good.. sometimes it'll give you top pair and them two pair.. be carefull.. this is where your read comes in important.. always practice putting your friends on the exact two cards and you'll get better at it. Also very important.. if you're in doubt. stop think about it, think hard, and if you're still in doubt save your money unless it's such a small call to win a big pot.Sometimes all i think is "hey there's a lot of money out there and i got a lotta outs and if i hit one of them i can get a lot more money!".. this is primitive and i need to practice more, but i rely on playing the player more. You have to be able to do both, especially no limit. But at least that gives you a more simplistic Idea. Like i said... sit down.. think about it.. ask your math teacher at school.. and never stop asking questions.. good luck bud.

[qheuie]

tekn0wledg said:

Look at TylerMayes' example.  This is the way you should be calculating your pot odds.  My calculation is slightly different as I don't take the total number of cards and subract one, I take the number of cards that help vs those that don't and create the ratio from that.  The result is the same however, but most people find his method easier.Take the number of cards left in the deck and divide by those that help you and subtract by one.  In the example of the open ended straight draw you have five cards already seen, two in your hand and three on the board.  So you have 47 total cards left, 8 of which help you.  So 39:8 which equates to 4.875 to 1 odds, so you'd need roughly 5x the bet you are calling to make it profitable to see the next card.Once the turn falls if you still haven't made your hand you now have one less available card, 46, which makes it 38:8 or 4.75 to 1.  Again you need roughly 5x the bet size, which has now doubled in a limit game, to make your draw profitable.Either of these calculations give you the result you need and should be used when determining pot odds:y = # cards remainingx = # cards to make your handz = odds to 1 to make your handy / x - 1 = zor(y-x)/x = zFrom there you can also calculate the percentage that you will make your hand from the flop and turn.  I use the 4x2 method which works as follows:On the flop: number of outs * 4 = % to make your hand [rough]On the turn: number of outs * 2 = % to make your hand [rough]I hope this helps.For additional reference see the other thread started on this topic:http://www.fullconta...=147&highlight=

I also use the 4x2 method. This method gives you the percentage to make the hand by the river while tylers calculation helps determine what your odds are to make the hand on the next card (turn) then again on the next card(flop). here is how i understand the math for these calculations (correct me if i am wrong):making your open ended 8 out straight draw from the flop to the turn (1 card). Flop to turn (%) = 1 - ( (47-8) / 47) = 1 - (39 / 47) = 1 - 0.829 = .171 * 100 or ~17%to get the hand odds for that you divide 100 by 17 then subtract 1. hand odds = (100 / 17) - 1 = 5.88 - 1 = ~4.88 to 1 (looks a lot like tylers number, eh?)if you want to calculate your odds to make the hand by the river you need to factor in that you have two cards to go instead of just one.Flop to river (%) = 1 - ( ( 47-8) / 47) * (46-8 / 46) ) = 1 - ( (39/47) *(38/46)) = 1 - ( 0.829 * 0.826) = 1 - 0.684 = 0.316 * 100 = 31.6%again, for hand odds, divide 100 by the percentage and subtract 1hand odds = (100 / 31.6) - 1 = 3.16 - 1 = 2.16 to 1 note that if you use the 4x2 method you would get approximately 32% (4 * 8 outs) which would give odds of 2.125 to 1 ((100 / 32) - 1)just like everyone else has said though, you have to look at your "futures". if you miss it on the turn you may have another bet to call and your pot odds won't be big enough. on the flip side, when you do hit it on the turn you will hopefully be able to win more bets. and of course, if you are not drawing to the nuts there is no guarantee that you will win. such could be the case with a straight draw. the card that makes you a K high straigh could indeed make someone else an A high straight.q

[idiotbocs]

i used to be such a fish b

[TheIceman05]

idiotbocs said:

i used to be such a fish :P b

Man, look how big of an ASS I was!Holy crap!

[idiotbocs]

TheIceman05 said:

idiotbocs said:

i used to be such a fish b

Man, look how big of an ASS I was!Holy crap!

we havnt changed much

[TheIceman05]

idiotbocs said:

TheIceman05 said:

idiotbocs said:

i used to be such a fish :P b

Man, look how big of an ASS I was!Holy crap!

we havnt changed much

Fuk u.(shrug) Yup... about right...Ice