17 replies to this topic

[screech]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converterPreflop: Hero is Button with A 5 . 2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, SB raises, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.Flop: (10 SB) Q 3 2 (5 players)SB bets, BB raises, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, Hero...

[bdc30]

You can either raise, sensing that whether ornot you raise, it's probably getting capped, so you might as well speed up the process, or call, but I can't see folding in this spot with thenut flush draw and the straight draw.

[princeof56k]

I would just call in this situation.BTW what do you mean by few weak draws? The only real weak draw you have is to pair your Ace. With the SB raising preflop and the BB raising on the flop, I'm assuming all your straight outs are good. So you have 12 clean outs.

[Nutcracker]

bdc30 said:

You can either raise, sensing that whether ornot you raise, it's probably getting capped, so you might as well speed up the process, or call, but I can't see folding in this spot with thenut flush draw and the straight draw.

Speed up the process? What the hell?I raise here every time, but it has nothing to do with "speeding up the process", since if you call, it will likely just get called behind you (you must play on .01/.02 if you think this is getting capped most of the time). I raise here because of equity. You're around 45% or so to win the hand, and only putting in 33% of the money, so you push this edge. If it causes sb to fold, great, you might have cleaned up some A outs.And OP, the title is misleading. Nut flush draw is never a weak draw. You have a very strong draw here.

[KDawgCometh]

I have to go with what everyone else is saying with the but flush not being a weka draw.anywho, I have to call this here, if there was a cold caller of the raise, then I'd three bet, but you really want to keep the villians in in this hand

[screech]

My bad. The flop only contained one spade. :oops:

[Nutcracker]

In that case, fold.

[Absolute]

whatr are you people talking about?are you all on crack?this is the easiest fold ever!

[bdc30]

Absolute said:

whatr are you people talking about?are you all on crack?this is the easiest fold ever!

His original post had 2 spades on the flopA little different story with the club...

[screech]

Yeah, to all those confused about the earlier posts, I accidently put two spades on the flop instead of one.I don't really see how we can fold this hand. We have a gutshot, a backdoor nutflush draw, and an overcard.Our gutshot is worth 4 outs.The backdoor flush draw is 1.5 outs.Our overcard is probably no good given the action, but who knows. We should give it something. How about 0.5 outs (maybe less?)Anyway, or hand is worth around 6 outs, which means we are about 7:1 to make our hand. On the flop we are getting 6.5:1, which is clearly a call when we factor in our implied odds. Even if the worst happens, and the blinds go to war and cap it, we're still getting 4.5:1 on our money (4sb to win 18sb). If this happens, we can discount our overcard outs, but we will still be better than 8:1 to make our hand. With such action on the flop, it should be no problem to make up 3.5sb if we improve.The only question I think is whether or not to raise or call. A raise will probably not clean up any of our ace outs if one of the blinds has an ace. Therefore, we would only be raising to try to get a free card on the turn. If our opponents are passive, this is probably the best play. Even if they are somewhat aggressive, this might work (if it doesn't we will still be able to make up the bets if we hit our hand). Calling is probably better though if our opponents have any bit of aggression in them. Our chances to win the hand will change drastically when the next card falls. If it's a spade, we're in good shape. If not, we're probably going to have to fold. We would like to see the next card as cheaply as possible. Hopefully, if we just call, the SB will too. Does this make any sense?

[Absolute]

screech said:

Yeah, to all those confused about the earlier posts, I accidently put two spades on the flop instead of one.I don't really see how we can fold this hand. We have a gutshot, a backdoor nutflush draw, and an overcard.Our gutshot is worth 4 outs.The backdoor flush draw is 1.5 outs.Our overcard is probably no good given the action, but who knows. We should give it something. How about 0.5 outs (maybe less?)Anyway, or hand is worth around 6 outs, which means we are about 7:1 to make our hand. On the flop we are getting 6.5:1, which is clearly a call when we factor in our implied odds. Even if the worst happens, and the blinds go to war and cap it, we're still getting 4.5:1 on our money (4sb to win 18sb). If this happens, we can discount our overcard outs, but we will still be better than 8:1 to make our hand. With such action on the flop, it should be no problem to make up 3.5sb if we improve.The only question I think is whether or not to raise or call. A raise will probably not clean up any of our ace outs if one of the blinds has an ace. Therefore, we would only be raising to try to get a free card on the turn. If our opponents are passive, this is probably the best play. Even if they are somewhat aggressive, this might work (if it doesn't we will still be able to make up the bets if we hit our hand). Calling is probably better though if our opponents have any bit of aggression in them. Our chances to win the hand will change drastically when the next card falls. If it's a spade, we're in good shape. If not, we're probably going to have to fold. We would like to see the next card as cheaply as possible. Hopefully, if we just call, the SB will too. Does this make any sense?

You have 5.5 outs.The ace is no good.

[KDawgCometh]

Absolute said:

You have 5.5 outs.The ace is no good.

you can't for sure say that, but I'd discount the ace down to a .5 outI'd still fold this, not enough players in to pull off a three bet

[Nutcracker]

Quote

Anyway, or hand is worth around 6 outs, which means we are about 7:1 to make our hand. On the flop we are getting 6.5:1, which is clearly a call when we factor in our implied odds. Even if the worst happens, and the blinds go to war and cap it, we're still getting 4.5:1 on our money (4sb to win 18sb). If this happens, we can discount our overcard outs, but we will still be better than 8:1 to make our hand. With such action on the flop, it should be no problem to make up 3.5sb if we improve.

You also have bad reverse implied odds for the times you do hit your ace. Very good chance you are beat. And a decent chance it will be 3 bet behind you (and maybe even capped), making it even worse odds. If you're gonna play this hand, you should probably 3-bet, to hopefully clean up A outs (guessing BB is on KQ or any other Q here and SB could be on a missed A or a KK/JJ). But I'd still say it's an easy fold.

[screech]

I don't think we're cleaning up any outs. Let's disregard the ace, and say we have 5.5 outs. We are still 7.5:1 to make our hand. At best we are getting 6.5:1 on our money. At worse we are getting 4.5:1 if it gets capped. These are all small bets. If we hit our gutshot on the turn, we only have to make up 1.5 big bets (3 small bets) in the worse case scenario. If we hit a spade on the turn, we have 13 outs to win, and it will clearly be profitable to continue.Can someone explain why we should fold here?

[Nutcracker]

screech said:

I don't think we're cleaning up any outs. Let's disregard the ace, and say we have 5.5 outs. We are still 7.5:1 to make our hand. At best we are getting 6.5:1 on our money. At worse we are getting 4.5:1 if it gets capped. These are all small bets. If we hit our gutshot on the turn, we only have to make up 1.5 big bets (3 small bets) in the worse case scenario. If we hit a spade on the turn, we have 13 outs to win, and it will clearly be profitable to continue.Can someone explain why we should fold here?

1) yes, raising will clean up outs in the case where sb has something like a missed AK/AJ and will fold, and bb has a Q (not AQ). It's not rare, but it's not real likely either, which is why I'd rather just fold. But this is the argument I'd make for raising instead of calling, if folding is not an option for some reason.2) You are 10.75:1 to hit the gutshot on the turn. That's the ONLY 4 outs you really want to see.3) If you hit an A on the turn, it's very likely you are dominated and you will then pay off the bigger A, and thus reverse implied odds screw you. Same with hitting a 5. You'll probably have to stay in to see the river at that point, but you're at such an equity deficit that you lost more money because you stayed in with such a weak hand.4) If you hit a spade, you will have 12 outs (don't double count the 4:spade:) and it will be profitable to continue (it will be +EV to continue chasing, but the bets you put in will be at an equity disadvantage).

[screech]

Quote

1) yes, raising will clean up outs in the case where sb has something like a missed AK/AJ and will fold, and bb has a Q (not AQ). It's not rare, but it's not real likely either, which is why I'd rather just fold. But this is the argument I'd make for raising instead of calling, if folding is not an option for some reason.2) You are 10.75:1 to hit the gutshot on the turn. That's the ONLY 4 outs you really want to see.3) If you hit an A on the turn, it's very likely you are dominated and you will then pay off the bigger A, and thus reverse implied odds screw you. Same with hitting a 5. You'll probably have to stay in to see the river at that point, but you're at such an equity deficit that you lost more money because you stayed in with such a weak hand.4) If you hit a spade, you will have 12 outs (don't double count the 4:spade:) and it will be profitable to continue (it will be +EV to continue chasing, but the bets you put in will be at an equity disadvantage).

1) I really don't see the SB betting into 4 opponents with a hand like AJ. He might do this with AK after raising PF, but I doubt it. Even if he did, he's probably not going to fold for 2 more bets. As you said, it's rare. That's why I said the only argument for raising would be the free card play.2) Aren't you undervaluing our hand if you don't include the backdoor nut flush draw? I would be happy to see a spade on the turn as it puts our equity to about 26%.3) Good point. An ace is probably the worse card that hits (luckily though, if we are dominated, an ace will only hit the turn about 4% of the time). If a 5 hits, I'm probably counting the remaining aces and fives as 2 outs, giving me 6 outs. This will probably lead to a fold on the turn. 4) I'll double count the 4 all day if it allows me to continue to make bad calls :-). Good point about the equity disadvantage. If you flop a flush, you have an equity advantage against two opponents on the flop, but you lose it if you don't hit your flush on the turn. I've never really thought about how your backdoor flush draws will usually be at an equity disadvantage if you hit your flush draw on the turn. I guess this is related to your point in 2. Thanks for the detailed reply. It helps a lot more than if you just wrote something along the lines of 'easy fold'.

[Nutcracker]

Doing the exact math for backdoor draws is tricky and having 2 opponents in, along with low visibility makes it even harder if not impossible. I did some analysis on a backdoor draw hand that I played once and it was actually +EV to continue with just backdoor straights and flush (and trips of course), but the pot was much bigger and there was only one opponent still in the hand who was limited to 3 hands really. The thread is here if interested. Anyway, I don't think I could do the same analysis due to the increased variable of the 3rd player here, but it would probably be pretty marginal, and I'd definately lean towards folding. I guess peeling one (two) isn't so bad though, if you're pretty sure sb isn't gonna 3-bet (reads would help). It gets real tricky when you hit a 5 or A though, and I don't know if I trust my postflop play enough yet to be able to peel one and make it +EV. Reverse implied odds are a bitch. Absent reads, I definately fold.

[DCSports92GSR]

Hero Folds.I don't want to get cought in the middle of a raising war. What if its capped on the flop, SB leads and BB raises? Call 2 cold if you improve to get a flush draw? Then, what if SB 3 bets and BB caps...I think theres just too much possibility to put in ALOT of money drawing to a gut-shot and a runner-runner.