58 replies to this topic

[akishore]

note:this is a TOURNAMENT situation, but for the freaking love of god, don't move this post into the tournament forum, jayson. i definitely am tired of strong tournament situations getting moved to the tournament forum that no one reads.if you're not qualified to answer a tournament situation, then don't. it's no different than not answering an omaha/8 situation when you don't know the game. but honestly, this is a really interesting situation and i think everyone can learn a lot from it.--i am watching the fox sports full tilt poker champsionship at the wynn for the first time right now. this monstrous hand came up, and i really want to analyze it.the table is six-handed right now.relevant stacks:negreanu - chipleader at about 120kforrest - second with about 110kd'agostino - shortstack with 12kblinds: 800/1600ante: 200relevant payouts:1st - $250,0002nd - $125,000 ish5th - $30,000 ish6th - $0 (bubble)forrest has been playing VERY loose/aggressive, stealing a LOT of pots.he just won a monster pot from d'agostino whe he flopped a set of 7's and agostino made an agonizing crying call on the river when he knew he was beat (forrest had just been playing so MANY pots and bluffing so much).negreanu has played about two hands in over an hour, VERY conservative.so, here's the hand:--forrest is the button. player X is SB, negreanu is BB.(t3,600.)two folds, d'agostino pushes all-in for 12.2k with K-8 suited, ted forrest flat-calls with A-A, SB folds, negreanu thinks of raising but just flat-calls with A-Q.(t38,600) 6 6 2negreanu checks, forrest checks.(t38,600) Anegreanu bets a moderate amount (sorry, i forgot the number, probably about 1/3 pot), forrest calls.(t38,600) 6negreanu checks and laughs figuring (rightly so) that it's a split, but forrest suddenly gets a serious look on his face. he just sits there for a long time, not checking. negreanu laughs and says "you're not seriously thinking of bluffing, are you?" ...--what is your move here as ted forrest? why?aseem

[Blink20]

XXEddie said:

you check because the only way DN will call your bet is if he has the case ace

Are you joking?I think his best move is just to make a little value bet. I really doubt that he would think negreanu could call an all in. I would think that negreanu would have to call a little bit on the river, so I would assume that forrest would make some sort of value bet. A big push just wouldn't result any more action, imo.

[TripDaddy]

Unless I am missing something it is not a chop pot. Ted has Aces full of sixes vs. Daniels zixes full of aces. I make a bet that looks like I am stealing. Maybe 50K. Or maybe push, thinking that Daniel would think that it is a huge overbet steal bluff and he is trying to push daniel off the pot. I certainly would bet SOMETHING!Daniel - what happened on this hand?

[BeanGW]

I agree with Blink.You MUST bet if you are Forrest. I'd bet about 25K. It's significant, but also less than the pot. He is hoping that DN has the Ace and will feel he needs to call. If DN folds Ted is in exactly the same situation he would be if he had checked it down. If he calls, more chips in Ted's stack.This seems like an incredibly easy decision. Tell me why it's not.

[bdams19]

Results should not be revealed, but DN posted this hand a while back in his blog or something and Ted checked behind on the river. I am not sure why he did this to be quite honest.

[BeanGW]

akishore said:

negreanu checks and laughs figuring (rightly so) that it's a split, but forrest suddenly gets a serious look on his face. he just sits there for a long time, not checking. negreanu laughs and says "you're not seriously thinking of bluffing, are you?" ...

Last I checked, Aces full of 6's beats 6's full of Aces.I think you are smoking too much of that wacky tobaccy Mr. Aseem.

[bdc30]

This calls for a bet of at least 1/3 of the pot.With any luck, especially after his commentDN might have figured his ace was best and come back over the top here, but you certainlyhave to bet SOMETHING....

[Rocketwadster]

Any bet is a positive move. All-in - DN won't call, as he can be beaten, same with a larger than half the pot bet. A small bet DN will almost certainly call IMO. Anything less than 1/3 the pot I think, the smaller the better. 8)

[Blink20]

BeanGW said:

akishore said:

negreanu checks and laughs figuring (rightly so) that it's a split, but forrest suddenly gets a serious look on his face. he just sits there for a long time, not checking. negreanu laughs and says "you're not seriously thinking of bluffing, are you?" ...

Last I checked, Aces full of 6's beats 6's full of Aces.I think you are smoking too much of that wacky tobaccy Mr. Aseem.

I think he meant...Figured rightly so it was a split because of the action. Like, it completely makes sense for negreanu to think it would be a split....Obviously it wasn't ;-) , but from negreanu's perspective it seems that its right of him to figure rightly so it was a split.Ah, screw it, I'm never good at semantics

[akishore]

eddie, honestly, that was a pretty dumb statement.that's the same thing the dumb commentator said on the show, so i assume you're just repeating it to sound smart.ted forrest has a monster right now. A-x thinks it's splitting the pot, but ted beats it with a better aces full. however, the nuts are quad sixes.his primary concern right here is to get value from that "case ace", right?however, there are a few important points:1. he could be beaten by 6-x. honestly, though, it was pretty unlikely based on daniel's behavior in the hand.2. there is a side pot.3. the shortstack is all-in.4. we're on the bubble.based on this, tournament strategy suggests that implicit collusion is very applicable here (having both players check down).however, it actually doesn't apply here with ted's hand, because if the shortstack does have a hand that beats ted, it certainly beats negreanu, too, and if negreanu beats ted, he certainly beats the shortstack, too.so, the question in ted's mind is:WOULD a worse hand call a bet here on the river? is daniel smart enough to lay down A-x to even a small value bet, knowing that ted wouldn't do it without an unbeatable hand since tournament strategy absolutely dictates that this is THE situation to check down and work together to eliminate the shortstack?if the answer is no (and it very likely could be against a smart player like daniel), then betting seems counterproductive since only 6-x would raise you here.but, daniel just doesn't have 6-x. it's so obvious, right?then DO you try to get at least SOME value with your second-nuts here?aseem

[Orion071]

I think that the explaination went that DN would only call a bet with the case A or the case 6. If you think that DN has about an equal chance of having either one (it is DN, after all), then betting here is 0 EV.

[akishore]

Blink20 said:

BeanGW said:

akishore said:

negreanu checks and laughs figuring (rightly so) that it's a split

Last I checked, Aces full of 6's beats 6's full of Aces.I think you are smoking too much of that wacky tobaccy Mr. Aseem.

I think he meant...Figured rightly so it was a split because of the action. Like, it completely makes sense for negreanu to think it would be a split....Obviously it wasn't ;-) , but from negreanu's perspective it seems that its right of him to figure rightly so it was a split.

blink got it.aseem

[richgambler]

I agree with all of you on this one....he has to bet here......I think Ted was thinking that Daniels only going to give action if he has the case ace(which is what i wouldve put him on, no doubt)and hes going to get raised if he has the case 6....I just dont know how you could not bet here, however...if he has quads, hes getting paid off (at least by me)....then again, who are we to second guess Ted??.....i do think he played this hand wayyyyy too carefully though....for what its worth

[Blink20]

Orion071 said:

I think that the explaination went that DN would only call a bet with the case A or the case 6.  If you think that DN has about an equal chance of having either one (it is DN, after all), then betting here is 0 EV.

there's really almost no possibility that negreanu has the case six.OOP, checking the river here, he's got to think that forrest will check almost every single hand, as aseem pointed out by the tourny implicit collusion factor...So its more likely than 50/50 due to action that negreanu would have the case ace....Will he call with case ace, even small bet, perhaps not, but its not risking anything extra really to make the small value bet to attempt to get some value.

[akishore]

guys,to all of you who are saying "he'll only call with the case ace",that makes it sound like it's going to be a split pot.IT'S NOT GOING TO BE A SPLIT POT.THE "CASE ACE" IS BEATEN BY FORREST HERE.aseem

[BeanGW]

Aseem:Yes it would be an appropriate and maybe not even incredibly difficult laydown on the part of DN when Ted bets the river. That said, DN may still call a value bet with a case Ace, which can only be good for Ted.I see absolutely no negative side to Ted betting. The odds of Daniel having a 6 are incredibly slim based upon betting, behavior, etc. That said, the odds of Ted having pocket Aces would have seemed pretty slim to DN as well but let's leave that aside.More importantly though, if DN had a six and didn't lead the river he'd have been crazy, even if only because Ted knows enough about the implicit collusion necessity as well to not bluff in this situation. So by DN not betting the river with the 6, he gets nothing out of any of the Aces that might be out there and would call.IMHO, this is a must bet situation for Ted. He really has nothing to lose and only value to gain.

[Blink20]

BeanGW said:

IMHO, this is a must bet situation for Ted. He really has nothing to lose and only value to gain.

Precisely, you type it out better than me

[Egarim]

For some odd reason I actually thought this was going to be a worthwhile post... I'm just too naive.I hope Jweb moves this post.

[Blink20]

Egarim said:

For some odd reason I actually thought this was going to be a worthwhile post... I'm just too naive.I hope Jweb moves this post.

That's mean :evil: I liked it.I woulda also like to better understand why ted just checked. I seriously think that was a mistake, obviously not a big mistake because its doubtful negreanu would call, but I think he missed out on a little value.