19 replies to this topic

[pat_s_lee]

Here's another...Early on in a Pokerstars tournament, I'm on the button with 10-J suited (spades). 5 limpers come in. I usually like to raise, but with 5 limpers, I just call. I want to see the flop and not get played back at. Flop comes 2 - 7 - Q spades. Everyone checks to me. I decide to make a reasonable size bet (by Doyle's definition, the size of the pot). I figure I can take down the pot here and make it expensive for anyone with 2 pair or A spade or K spade to draw to.BB calls. The other players fold to a player in 6th or 7th spot (don't remember). He raises all-in. (I have him covered by a little bit).It's too early in the tournament to have gotten a feel for this player. I start to think, what could he possibly have?1) He thinks I'm bluffing with As or Ks, and he's made some sort of hand. 2 pair seems unlikely (but anything is possible), maybe a set of twos or sevens. If he had Queens, I definitely would have expected a pre-flop raise.2) He has top pair with As or Ks kicker? Again, that would mean AQ or KQ preflop without a raise. Possible I guess.3) He's playing Ax or Kx suited in mid-position. I posted something about this a little while ago, and personally, I have reserved this type of hand for late position play where there are a lot of callers and the price is cheap.4) He has a lower suited connector and thinks I have 2 pair, a set or am drawing with Ks or As. (i.e. he has made a smaller flush and is putting me on #1 or #2). With J, 10s, I know that my flush is pretty good at this point. Since the Queen is out there, only the K or A flush is better than mine, which would mean the player played something like A-9, A-8, or K-9, K-8. At this point, there isn't a straight draw out there, so a straight flush doesn't even factor into my thought process. (You would need runner-runner to make a straight flush).The check-raise also doesn't make much sense. (Remember in Doyle's book, he talks about leading into the bettor). If he does indeed have the nuts (Ax spades), check-raising in anticipation of folds from me and the BB would yield a decent size pot, but nothing extravagant. Check-raising the same amount I bet would entice me to play along to draw out more chips from me as the turn and river come (unless he absolutely did not want me to see the turn and river). (Hence, leading in makes more sense than check-raising.)Regardless of the last paragraph, I'm interested to hear what you guys would have done here. I'll post what happens afterwards.

[wrto4556]

CALL

[MasterLJ]

I'd put him on A spades, Q of whatever. Top pair, top kicker, with a decent chance at hitting the nut flush. I'm pretty timid about calling all-ins with less than a nut flush. The idea of being beat certainly would enter my mind. How much would you lose by folding? It seems you could walk away from this one without losing too much by just one pot-sized bet of 6 times the BB. It could certainly be worse.Not everyone raises with AK suited. In fact, AK suited is an underdog to just about any pocket pair. 2:spade: 2 is even favored against A K . Not to mention that most Ax suited is above EV and lots of people love to play them when the playing is cheap. Heck, some people even play them with regularity despite position.At any rate, I would have folded.

[wrto4556]

I'm pretty sure he'd lead out with A Q or something... TPTK with the nut flush draw. Only two hands can beat you right now. A x and K x .Would you not go all in with 33 if the board wasK39?? only two hands can beat you.

[Smasharoo]

Call.If it's the one time in however many thousand that he has a better made flush, oh well.He's more likely to have a WORSE made flush or be drawing to the As.He may have a set, whatever.The chances that you aren't way ahead here are about 1 in 10000.

[MasterLJ]

http://www.cardplaye...ves/?a_id=13580Even Daniel has seen this occur.I don't know, if you calculate the raw odds of someone having a better flush, it is small, but at the same time, I cannot count how many times I've seen a better flush. Heck, just before Full Tilt went down a few hours a go I saw K high flush and a Q high flush battle it out (they both used both of their cards). I think the extra betting such as an all in dramatically increases the likelihood of someone having the better flush. You have to ask yourself why someone would go all in with 3 like-suited cards just to steal the 10-12 times the blinds (since the original poster said he had made a pot sized bet). You're either dealing with a weak player, or someone with a better flush. My money is on the better flush since obviously the player knows that the original poster has a strong hand.

[tentenoffsuit]

I would be very hesitant to call. But I'm going with the set, or nut flush draw with maybe not even a pair on board. Many on-line players check-raise with a set EVERY time. Most of the time when faced with a check-raise online i just lay the hand down and forget about it. Unless i'm holding the nuts, or have a draw to the nuts. Online players think the check-raise is the smartest play in poker, when in reality, they just told you that they're strong, and think they're smart for stealing 4-5 BBs from you. And most of the time they stupidly show you their "brilliant" play.I know you're thinking, "geez, i'd just check-raise bluff you. You're an idiot." Not many players at low limits and in tourneys online have the balls to check raise you with nothing. The only times i've been check raised with nothing (that i know of honestly) is by a player who has demonstrated some "advanced" poker skills. But now that I've thought a little about it, I think he might have the A-high flush draw.I would've called though. I'm guessing you called, he had either the A or K of spades and spiked a spade on the river.Curt

[Smasharoo]

I know you're thinking, "geez, i'd just check-raise bluff you. You're an idiot." Not many players at low limits and in tourneys online have the balls to check raise you with nothing. The only times i've been check raised with nothing (that i know of honestly) is by a player who has demonstrated some "advanced" poker skills. If they're ever going to do it, this is the time.

[MasterLJ]

wrto4556 said:

I'm pretty sure he'd lead out with A Q or something... TPTK with the nut flush draw. Only two hands can beat you right now. A x and K x .Would you not go all in with 33 if the board wasK39?? only two hands can beat you.

That's not quite the same. With 33, literally only two hands can beat you 99 or KK. With the situation he described only two TYPES of hands can beat you, but that encompasses 25 hands that alot of people like to play regularly.

[Smasharoo]

Why are we evevn having this discussion?It's clearly correct to call here over the long term. If the guy pushihng all in has AK or ax, kx ,qx of spades 40% of the time, which is LUDICROUSLY high, it's STILL right to call.

[the_stein]

I can only find 1 reason to fold here: You're an idiot!I'd check raise a bluff here anytime, so that is what you could be facing. He could be drawing to a boat or a better flush but you still have the better hand. If he does happen to have you beat right now, oh well, shit happens, but not likely, I would make this call just about anytime and everytime without hesitation.

[pat_s_lee]

Wow - I posted this just a few hours ago, and the speed of the responses!Yes, I did as the majority of you would have. I called. The real thought was "there are 2 hands that can beat me at this point, what are the chances". That and I did put him on a set.Turned out he had A-6 spades for the nut flush. Turn and river didn't help me (I would have needed Ks and 9s to fall for a straight flush). I was down to about 100 chips, grinded it out until the break and was eventually blinded out because I couldn't get anything together.I think if I had to do it again, I would still have called. Doyle says something in his book to the effect of "if you play scared all the time, you shouldn't be playing at all".The majority of "call" answers makes me feel better.And yes - someone wrote about online players using the "check-raise" like some new found secret. I should have picked up on that as a "tell"....Pat

[Smasharoo]

Happens.Most posters should have known you lost the hand.No one bothers posting this hand if they win it because you only quesiton the call the 1 time in 50 that you lose.

[wrto4556]

MasterLJ said:

wrto4556 said:

I'm pretty sure he'd lead out with A Q or something... TPTK with the nut flush draw. Only two hands can beat you right now. A x and K x .Would you not go all in with 33 if the board wasK39?? only two hands can beat you.

That's not quite the same. With 33, literally only two hands can beat you 99 or KK. With the situation he described only two TYPES of hands can beat you, but that encompasses 25 hands that alot of people like to play regularly.

blah blah blah.. :-) .my point is that it's highly unlikly you're beat.

[tentenoffsuit]

Smasharoo said:

Happens.Most posters should have known you lost the hand.No one bothers posting this hand if they win it because you only quesiton the call the 1 time in 50 that you lose.

exactly... and we're here to confirm that you did the right thing. just watch out for that dang check-raise...a much smarter play for him would be to just bet the hand as normal... make a small bet and keep more people in the hand. since he checked, he really should've flat-called, keeping you and the big-blind in the hand. and then checked on the turn once again hoping that card made you a decent hand, but nothing that could beat his nut flush. you've got something in your hand you're willing to bet with, so he should let you take another shot at betting it. and then raise here or on the river. by moving in right away on the flop, his best case scenario is that one of you has a flush (which you did unluckily) and that you'll call. If either of you has nothing, you're both laying it down and he only wins those first bets (which isn't much for hitting the nut flush). if neither of you has the flush, hopefully one of you catches two pair on the turn or river and he can get more money from you with good value bets. a check-raise on the flop is almost surely a sign of hand strength. if you watch any of the top flight pros, they rarely use a check-raise on the flop. they'll check, flat-call... then bet at it on the turn. Pushing it in when not necessary is one of the weakest plays in poker if you ask me. Chan flopped the nuts in 88 (or 89... whatever it was)... if he followed your opponents strategy, Seidel would've been out of the hand in 1 second. Instead he waited him out, and got full value for his hand. (Though i think he checked on the river... i don't think i would've done that, i probably would've bet it... but Chan knew Seidel pretty well.)ok, done rambling.

[MasterLJ]

Obviously we are all in disagreement, but I don't think he did the right thing. I've seen this way too many times for it to be coincedence. You can't play off pure statistics you have to ask yourself "why would player_X put his chips all in to no pre-flop raising?" Once you ask yourself that, you narrow down your opponents cards to a much smaller batch of cards (in this case, HUGE batch of hands that beat yours). Then you really have to start doing the math on what your probability of winning is given your hand compared to the hands that beat yours. I start to get nervous when there's 4 hands that beat mine. 23 is a little extreme.I'd love to see some real data on this, but I've seen this happen way too many times to call with a J high flush. It certainly has made me play J10 suited more like J10 non-suited.I also must mention that I've been playing an awful lot of cash games. Certainly in cash games there's no urgency and thus there's no reason to call an all-in with a J high flush.

[Smasharoo]

Obviously we are all in disagreement, but I don't think he did the right thing. I've seen this way too many times for it to be coincedence. I'd like to point out that the only way it could be cooincidence was if one person had seen it a lot and everyone else realized it was exceedinglt rare....Is it not equally likely that someone with an UNDERFLUSH pushes here?

[MasterLJ]

I would push an underflush in a tourny certainly, but not in a cash game.Btw, I just saw it AGAIN tonight. Flop was like suited, A4 of that suit took the pot to someone's 2nd nut flush.

[Smasharoo]

I understand.I lost with an A high full house to quads twice. YESTERDAY.Doesn't mean I'm not going to cap it with the nut full house.You seeing it happen a lot doesn't mean it happens a lot.

[MasterLJ]

I certainly hear what you are saying, but after playing NL cash games for the last month or so, I've learned that all-in generally means there's something there. You really have to re-figure pot odds based on how many hands can beat you, and where you stand in the 'nut' scale. Do you have the 2nd nuts, the 3rd, the 4th, the 24th? It's a hard call, and once again I've been playing cash and not tournies. People play incredibly lose in low buy in tournies.