8 replies to this topic

[Actuary]

so..which hands are likely to be the biggest money losers? over several hundred occurrences...AJ0 sux for me....TJs..have yet to win withbut not enuf data...So later, when I do..should there be hands that naturally win less...Is it just common sense AA > KK > QQ, or are there some anomolies, and how do Suited Connectors fit in...thanksI'm afraid I might be plaing incorrectly in a macro way and it's not getting fixed by posting hands. I'm still down a fracion of a BB/100 over 3000 hands. That's not good against bad players, even if it is early.Foe example, if I'm making more with 77 than QQ..i want to know if that is ok..or may indicate that I go to far with QQ..or don't play it strong enuf..stuff like that...

[econ_tim]

I'm a .36 BB/hand loser with QQ over the 19 times I've had them, but that can happen in small samples.If you are worried about winrates with a particular starting hand, look through the hand histories with that hand and see if you can find a recurring mistake.

[Actuary]

Tim,thanks for the quic response.IU wish we had more discussion on the PT stats and how to use them.Maybe the PT website would be worth a visit.Yesh, right now, I have such little sample size...so my worst hands are due to things like A-high flush losing to boat... (5.50 BB )...In general, I'm hoping to get some talk about what various things mean, or may indicate..w/o havig to weait for 7000 more hands! and even that is not enough to look at specific scenarios

[econ_tim]

I think it would be good to make posts about advance poker tracker issues in this forum.The sticky is for beginner questions, like how to get it and what to do with it, but it's not really useful for discussions since no one reads it.My winrate by position stats are weird looking. I'm winning from every seat except the blinds, and I'm losing .14 BB/hand from each blind. But the pattern is weird. Although I only have 4,200 hands so far.

[monoatomic]

As far as winrates go I wouldn't put too much stock in them without a hand history to go along with it.My biggest winning hand according to poker tracker is 99. Why is that. Well first off I've had that PP more then any other one, I won two HUGE pots with it by flopping a set with an A on board, and I let it go sooner then a hand like KK or QQ.My hands in order are 99, AA, KK, AJs, QQ, AKo, 10 10, JJ, and really surprisingly 66. After that every Ax hand is the next and there on down through the pockets and suited connectors.I'd look over the hand histories as Econ stated and look for similiar patterns in your winning hands vs your losing hands. Also to add to that, look at the stats of the person sitting at your table at the time. It could just be really really bad luck that you had a hot fish on your table during your rough beats or you were playing a TAA person.

[akishore]

there are 169 unique starting hands (assuming AsKs is the same as AdKd, etc.).that means in 1,600 hands, one can expect, on average, a certain hand to be dealt to them 10 times.hmm. that's not much?even after 16,000 hands, one can expect, on average, a certain hand to be dealt to them 100 times.this sounds like a lot, but factor in variance, and it's not unusual to see 98s only 30 times after 16,000 hands.add in the thousands of flop possibilities and the millions of different situations you can face with a one given hand, and it's blatantly clear that even 16,000 hands is not a sample nearly large enough to accurately judge one single hand.in all honestly, i wouldn't be certain that even 160,000 hands is enough before you can speculate completely accurately about one hand that you've been dealt 1,000 times on average. it's getting there, though.don't bother worrying about this. just go over hand histories. the numbers are so meaningless right now.aseem

[Actuary]

Aseem,Actuaries everywhere are insisting I respond..You do realize that some hands are much more common than others "of the 169"AKs occurs 2/3 as much as AAAKo occurs 2x as much as AAin the long run... :-) I know you knew this..and the rest of your post was enlightening as they all are

[akishore]

yep, i'm aware.around 1650 total possible combinations, 1250 of which are unsuited unpaired hands, 300 of which are suited, and 100 of which are pocket pairs (rough approximations).since most of the playable hands are suited or paired, the sample size needs to be even bigger before you can accurately speculate about a hand.so in a sample of 16,000 hands, then, you can't actually expect even 100 hands on average to be AA. you can expect less than 10 or so (since about 1/16 total combinations are paired, and of those, only 1/13 are AA).etc.aseem

[MrNiceGuy]

Yeah, I think PT is not really useful for looking at specific individual hands, just because you would need several hundred thousand total hands before you could even start to respect the stats, I think, and your game will evolve over such I span, so the cumulatative results might not represent your current play.But, you can probably start to legitimately compare groups of hands after 50,000 hands or so (such as, if you have a lower winrate with AT, A9, and A8 than with weaker aces, then you're probably overplaying those hands (either that, or underplaying your weaker aces).